Pfizer Inc. PFE
Pfizer's FY2025 results show gross margin expansion to 70.3% and solid FCF of $9.1B, but revenue declined 1.7% and EPS fell 3.6% YoY, with total debt at $67.4B and a looming patent cliff weighing on the outlook. A cluster buy by three insiders including CEO Bourla (~$3.0M in August 2026) is a credible bullish signal, and the stock trades at a discount to peers on EV/EBITDA (17.2x vs 22.2x median), but at $28.24 the shares are overbought (RSI 75.4) and the P/E of 36.0x sits 37% above the peer median, limiting near-term upside.
The risk/reward is balanced enough to warrant a hold pending evidence that pipeline and cost initiatives can offset the patent cliff.
What could go wrong
- Patent cliff. Seeking Alpha notes a looming patent cliff with management projecting high single-digit revenue CAGR only post-2028; revenue already declined 1.7% in FY2025.
- Elevated leverage. Total debt of $67.4B against stockholders' equity of $86.5B as of FY2025 constrains financial flexibility and raises dividend sustainability questions.
- Overbought technically. RSI at 75.4 with price of $28.24 well above the 50-day MA of $25.27 and 200-day MA of $25.96 suggests limited near-term upside and pullback risk.
- Smart money outflows. Smart money score deteriorated from +0.126 in Q1 2026 to -0.078 as of Q2 2026, with several 13F filers reducing positions in the quarter ended 2026-06-30.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: derived_metrics FY2025 · FMP FY2025 fundamentals · derived_metrics FY2025 revenue_growth_yoy · derived_metrics FY2025 eps_growth_yoy. Orin's read on PFE; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All PFE filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $9.0B | 0.2% of fund |
| State Street | $7.4B | 0.2% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $3.2B | 0.2% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.9B | 0.1% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $2.3B | 0.1% of fund |
| Norges Bank | $1.5B | 0.1% of fund |
139 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 137 Form 4 filings, net $46.5M. Of the 50 on hand, 3 were open-market purchases and 2 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about PFE
Orin answers questions about PFE from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 37.2× | 18.2× | 26.4× |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.6× | 11.9× | — |
| P/S | 2.52× | 2.73× | — |
| P/B | 1.9× | 1.8× | — |
Its P/E sits 80th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.40σ from its own mean).
6.0%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $9.1B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$29
$26 – $31 · +1% against today's price
- 15 buy or overweight
- 23 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PFEPfizer Inc. | $161B | 37.2× | 17.6× | 71.3% | 6.8% | 5% |
| AMGNAmgen Inc. | $219B | 25.0× | 15.9× | 72.7% | 22.9% | 89% |
| BMYBristol-Myers Squibb Company | $125B | 13.5× | 9.6× | 70.2% | 18.9% | 47% |
| BSXBoston Scientific Corporation | $66B | 18.0× | 13.8× | 71.2% | 17.5% | 15% |
| DHRDanaher Corporation | $156B | 39.2× | 24.9× | 58.5% | 15.9% | 8% |
| GILDGilead Sciences, Inc. | $188B | — | 331.4× | 79.6% | -10.6% | -16% |
| MRKMerck & Co., Inc. | $366B | 117.5× | 29.8× | 75.4% | 4.8% | 7% |
| SYKStryker Corporation | $105B | 28.1× | 18.6× | 65.2% | 14.4% | 16% |
The median is of the 6 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 40.1% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $39 | $25.63 · +53% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $29 | $25.63 · +13% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.