The Progressive Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Progressive's Q3 2026 revenue growth decelerated to 3.0% YoY from 14.2% in Q3 2025, confirming the premium-growth slowdown flagged in recent coverage even as the combined ratio improved to 88.7%.
FY2025 fundamentals remain exceptional — $87.6B in revenue (16.3% growth), $19.23 diluted EPS (33.5% growth), and $17.2B in free cash flow at a 19.6% FCF margin — but at a P/E of 10.98x versus the peer median of 9.36x (a 17.4% premium) and EV/EBITDA of 8.88x, the stock no longer screens cheap, while insider net selling of $74.5M over 24 months and a smart money score near zero signal limited conviction. With price above both the 50-day ($214.77) and 200-day ($208.61) moving averages and a positive MACD histogram, the technical setup has improved from prior months, but decelerating top-line growth and analyst forecast cuts after Q3 results cap near-term upside.
What could go wrong
- Growth deceleration persists. Q3 2026 revenue grew just 3.0% YoY versus 14.2% in Q3 2025; if premium growth continues to slow, the valuation premium narrows.
- Valuation premium to peers. P/E of 10.98x sits 17.4% above the peer median of 9.36x, leaving little margin for error if growth disappoints further.
- Rising loss ratios. The underlying loss ratio hit 68.7% in Q3, the highest in two years per recent reporting, which could pressure margins if the trend continues.
- Persistent insider selling. Insiders net sold $74.5M over the trailing 24 months with zero open-market acquisitions, a pattern that aligns with tempered internal expectations.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: quarterly results · FY25 fundamentals · news, 15 Oct · peer comparison. Orin's read on PGR; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 4.2% over twelve months, from $216.59 on 27 Oct 2025 to $225.60 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $236.36 on 15 Dec 2025; the last close is 4.6% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 10.0M, on 18 Jun 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All PGR filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $10.5B | 0.2% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $8.3B | 0.2% |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $5.8B | 0.8% |
| State Street | $5.8B | 0.2% |
| Geode Capital Management | $3.7B | 0.2% |
| Capital World Investors | $2.7B | 0.3% |
| Bank of America | $2.7B | 0.2% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.6B | 0.1% |
| FMR | $2.4B | 0.1% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $2.3B | 0.1% |
136 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 371 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$74.7M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 10 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about PGR
Orin answers questions about PGR from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 11.3× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close); the typical Financial Services company on the NYSE is at 17.6×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 11.3× | — | 17.6× |
| P/S | 1.43×below usual | 1.52× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.1× | — | — |
| P/B | 3.8×below usual | 4.6× | — |
- P/E: no usual level — it ran from 11.8× to 109× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- EV/EBITDA: no usual level — it ran from 9.5× to 55.7× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $223 (from $196 to $245) — 1% below the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$223
$196 – $245 · −1% against the last close
- 6 buy or overweight
- 9 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 11.3× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 6 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 10.4×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PGRThe Progressive Corporation | $131B | 11.3× | 9.1× | n/a | 12.7% | 35% |
| ALLThe Allstate Corporation | $67B | 6.0× | 4.8× | n/a | 16.8% | 36% |
| CBChubb Limited | $137B | 12.4× | 13.1× | n/a | 18.0% | 15% |
| CINFCincinnati Financial Corporation | $28B | 10.6× | 7.8× | n/a | 20.1% | 17% |
| HIGThe Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. | $36B | 8.0× | 11.4× | n/a | 15.9% | 24% |
| TRVThe Travelers Companies, Inc. | $81B | 10.2× | 7.8× | n/a | 17.0% | 26% |
| WRBW. R. Berkley Corporation | $27B | 15.2× | 11.1× | n/a | 10.4% | 19% |
- PGR, ALL, CB, CINF, HIG, TRV, WRB: gross margin is not used (n/a) for a bank, an insurer or a property trust — what it sells is money or space, not goods.
- WRB: dividend yield marked one-off — most of the last 12 months' payouts were special or irregular, so the yield is not income that repeats.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 11.3× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now11.3×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Financial Services companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 17.6× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now17.6×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A cash-flow model is not built for a bank or an insurer — its cash moves with deposits, loans and claims — so none is shown.
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.