The Progressive Corporation PGR
Progressive's fundamentals remain best-in-class — FY2025 revenue of $87.6B (up 16.3% YoY), diluted EPS of $19.23, and $17.2B in free cash flow support a P/E of 10.37, roughly 22% below the peer median of 13.35 — but the near-term setup has deteriorated since the prior buy call. As of 2026-08-18 the stock at $207.23 trades below both its 50-day ($213.95) and 200-day ($210.25) moving averages with a bearish MACD histogram of -0.81, while insiders have net sold $124.4M over the trailing 24 months including a cluster of executive sales in late July 2026 at $212–220 per share.
The Q2 2026 combined ratio widening to 87.1 signals that further growth may require margin trade-offs, making this a hold until technicals stabilize or the next quarter confirms underwriting discipline.
What could go wrong
- Combined ratio deterioration. Q2 2026 combined ratio widened to 87.1 per news coverage, suggesting the growth machine may face margin trade-offs as Progressive pushes into bundled auto and home.
- Insider selling pressure. Net insider dispositions of $124.4M over 24 months, with CEO Griffith selling $7.9M on 2026-07-27 alone, signal limited executive confidence at current levels.
- Technical breakdown. Stock at $207.23 is below both the 50-day MA of $213.95 and 200-day MA of $210.25 as of 2026-08-18, with RSI at 43.94 and a negative MACD histogram of -0.81.
- Valuation re-rating stall. Despite a P/E of 10.37 versus peer median 13.35, the discount has not narrowed; if growth decelerates from the 16.3% FY2025 pace, the multiple could compress further.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP FY2025 + derived_metrics · FMP FY2025 · FMP FY2025 · peer_relative. Orin's read on PGR; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All PGR filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $8.3B | 0.2% of fund |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $5.8B | 0.8% of fund |
| State Street | $5.8B | 0.2% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $3.7B | 0.2% of fund |
| Capital World Investors | $2.7B | 0.3% of fund |
| Bank Of America /De/ | $2.7B | 0.2% of fund |
133 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 346 Form 4 filings, net −$132.9M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 9 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about PGR
Orin answers questions about PGR from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 10.2× | 17.9× | 21.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.2× | 13.6× | — |
| P/S | 1.30× | 1.52× | — |
| P/B | 3.3× | 4.6× | — |
Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−0.71σ from its own mean).
-7.3%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $17.2B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$223
$198 – $245 · +9% against today's price
- 16 buy or overweight
- 22 hold
- 4 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PGRThe Progressive Corporation | $118B | 10.2× | 8.2× | 26.9% | 12.8% | 35% |
| BACBank of America Corporation | $397B | 12.7× | 24.1× | 59.3% | 17.2% | 11% |
| CBChubb Limited | $129B | 11.8× | 11.9× | 39.6% | 18.1% | 15% |
| IBKRInteractive Brokers Group, Inc. | $158B | 36.2× | 14.2× | 93.3% | 10.1% | 21% |
| TRVThe Travelers Companies, Inc. | $75B | 9.5× | 7.4× | 34.7% | 17.0% | 26% |
The median is of the 4 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 16.9% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $397 | $204.31 · +95% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $1421 | $204.31 · +596% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.