Parker-Hannifin Corporation PH
Parker-Hannifin's FY2026 results (as of the fiscal year ended 2026-06-30) show a best-in-class industrial franchise with 8.31% revenue growth, 21.55% operating margin, $3.905B in free cash flow, and debt reduced from $9.64B to $8.52B — but at $1,023.25 the stock trades at 35.4x earnings, a 25% premium to the peer median of 28.3x, against EPS growth that decelerated to 5.01% and net income growth of just 3.34%. Smart-money conviction improved to 0.1108 as of Q2 2026 and BlackRock disclosed an 8.24% stake, yet insiders remain net sellers at -$88.7M over 24 months, and the rich valuation — also 46% above the peer median on price-to-sales — leaves limited margin of safety despite the undeniable operational quality.
What could go wrong
- Valuation de-rating. At 35.4x P/E (25% above peer median) and 23.6x EV/EBITDA (28% above peer median), any industrial-sector rotation or multiple compression could de-rate the stock even without fundamental deterioration.
- Growth deceleration. Net income growth slowed from 24.15% in FY2025 to 3.34% in FY2026; if revenue growth cools below the current 8.31%, the premium multiple becomes harder to justify.
- Persistent insider selling. Insiders net sold $88.7M over 24 months with 162 dispositions vs 80 acquisitions, and recent August 2026 sales clustered at $1,055–$1,059 per share — a signal that the stock may be fully valued from an insider perspective.
- Aerospace cycle exposure. The Aerospace Systems segment is a meaningful contributor to margins; any slowdown in defense or commercial aerospace demand could pressure the 21.55% operating margin.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: derived_metrics FY2026 (fiscal year ended 2026-06-30) · derived_metrics FY2026 · fundamentals FY2026 vs FY2025 · peer_relative as of 2026-08-19. Orin's read on PH; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All PH filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| State Street | $9.2B | 0.3% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $8.1B | 0.2% of fund |
| Fmr | $3.8B | 0.2% of fund |
| Bank Of America /De/ | $3.3B | 0.2% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $2.8B | 0.2% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $2.5B | 0.1% of fund |
120 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 262 Form 4 filings, net −$22.5M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 17 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about PH
Orin answers questions about PH from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 33.6× | 24.0× | 44.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.5× | 15.0× | — |
| P/S | 5.70× | 2.76× | — |
| P/B | 8.0× | 4.8× | — |
Its P/E sits above all 5 of the last 5 years (+9.67σ from its own mean).
13.8%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $3.9B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$1154
$950 – $1358 · +19% against today's price
- 26 buy or overweight
- 13 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHParker-Hannifin Corporation | $122B | 33.6× | 22.5× | 37.7% | 17.0% | 25% |
| ADPAutomatic Data Processing, Inc. | $105B | 24.0× | 16.8× | 48.2% | 20.1% | 70% |
| CMICummins Inc. | $72B | 26.7× | 15.6× | 25.3% | 7.8% | 22% |
| EMREmerson Electric Co. | $87B | 33.7× | 19.1× | 53.2% | 13.8% | 13% |
| GDGeneral Dynamics Corporation | $93B | 20.6× | 15.2× | 15.4% | 8.2% | 17% |
| HWMHowmet Aerospace Inc. | $92B | 49.0× | 34.7× | 34.4% | 20.5% | 34% |
| ITWIllinois Tool Works Inc. | $79B | 24.7× | 18.9× | 44.2% | 19.4% | 102% |
| LMTLockheed Martin Corporation | $121B | 19.3× | 14.0× | 11.8% | 8.2% | 86% |
| MMM3M Company | $88B | 30.1× | 17.9× | 39.4% | 11.9% | 77% |
| NOCNorthrop Grumman Corporation | $73B | 16.3× | 11.7× | 20.1% | 10.5% | 27% |
| TTTrane Technologies plc | $96B | 33.0× | 22.9× | 35.4% | 13.3% | 34% |
The median is of the 10 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 30.7% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $556 | $886.82 · −37% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $350 | $886.82 · −61% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.