Orin
PHNYSE·Industrial - Machinery

Parker-Hannifin Corporation PH

Market cap $122.7BP/E 33.6× trailingGross margin 37.7%Reports Thu 5 Nov, before the open
$971.21
+6.36 (+0.66%)Wed close 16:00 ET
52-wk $715.37 – $1099.94
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Orin's take
0.63conviction · moderate
Refreshed 22 Aug · take v8. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

Parker-Hannifin's FY2026 results (as of the fiscal year ended 2026-06-30) show a best-in-class industrial franchise with 8.31% revenue growth, 21.55% operating margin, $3.905B in free cash flow, and debt reduced from $9.64B to $8.52B — but at $1,023.25 the stock trades at 35.4x earnings, a 25% premium to the peer median of 28.3x, against EPS growth that decelerated to 5.01% and net income growth of just 3.34%. Smart-money conviction improved to 0.1108 as of Q2 2026 and BlackRock disclosed an 8.24% stake, yet insiders remain net sellers at -$88.7M over 24 months, and the rich valuation — also 46% above the peer median on price-to-sales — leaves limited margin of safety despite the undeniable operational quality.

What could go wrong

  • Valuation de-rating. At 35.4x P/E (25% above peer median) and 23.6x EV/EBITDA (28% above peer median), any industrial-sector rotation or multiple compression could de-rate the stock even without fundamental deterioration.
  • Growth deceleration. Net income growth slowed from 24.15% in FY2025 to 3.34% in FY2026; if revenue growth cools below the current 8.31%, the premium multiple becomes harder to justify.
  • Persistent insider selling. Insiders net sold $88.7M over 24 months with 162 dispositions vs 80 acquisitions, and recent August 2026 sales clustered at $1,055–$1,059 per share — a signal that the stock may be fully valued from an insider perspective.
  • Aerospace cycle exposure. The Aerospace Systems segment is a meaningful contributor to margins; any slowdown in defense or commercial aerospace demand could pressure the 21.55% operating margin.

What would change my mind

Margin expansion continuation. Operating margin expands further above 21.55% alongside sustained revenue growth near or above 8% in upcoming quartersbullish
Multiple compression toward peers. P/E reverts from 35.4x toward the peer median of 28.3x without a corresponding earnings declinebearish
Insider buying reversal. Senior officers or directors begin sustained open-market purchases rather than the current disposition-heavy patternbullish
Debt paydown acceleration. Total debt continues declining meaningfully from the current $8.52B, further strengthening the balance sheet and FCF trajectorybullish

Where this comes from: derived_metrics FY2026 (fiscal year ended 2026-06-30) · derived_metrics FY2026 · fundamentals FY2026 vs FY2025 · peer_relative as of 2026-08-19. Orin's read on PH; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
State Street$9.2B0.3% of fund
Vanguard Capital Management$8.1B0.2% of fund
Fmr$3.8B0.2% of fund
Bank Of America /De/$3.3B0.2% of fund
Geode Capital Management$2.8B0.2% of fund
Morgan Stanley$2.5B0.1% of fund

120 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 262 Form 4 filings, net −$22.5M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 17 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

vs its own 5y · Industrials
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E33.6×24.0×44.5×
EV/EBITDA22.5×15.0×
P/S5.70×2.76×
P/B8.0×4.8×

Its P/E sits above all 5 of the last 5 years (+9.67σ from its own mean).

What the price assumes

13.8%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $3.9B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

40 firms · 2026-09-23
Consensus target

$1154

$950$1358 · +19% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 26 buy or overweight
  • 13 hold
  • 1 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 25.7× of 10 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
PHParker-Hannifin Corporation$122B33.6×22.5×37.7%17.0%25%
ADPAutomatic Data Processing, Inc.$105B24.0×16.8×48.2%20.1%70%
CMICummins Inc.$72B26.7×15.6×25.3%7.8%22%
EMREmerson Electric Co.$87B33.7×19.1×53.2%13.8%13%
GDGeneral Dynamics Corporation$93B20.6×15.2×15.4%8.2%17%
HWMHowmet Aerospace Inc.$92B49.0×34.7×34.4%20.5%34%
ITWIllinois Tool Works Inc.$79B24.7×18.9×44.2%19.4%102%
LMTLockheed Martin Corporation$121B19.3×14.0×11.8%8.2%86%
MMM3M Company$88B30.1×17.9×39.4%11.9%77%
NOCNorthrop Grumman Corporation$73B16.3×11.7×20.1%10.5%27%
TTTrane Technologies plc$96B33.0×22.9×35.4%13.3%34%

The median is of the 10 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 30.7% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY15 16.4×FY26 33.9×

What its sector has traded at

Industrials
FY14 173.5×FY26 32.7×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Discounted cash flow

not recomputed since
ModelFair valueAgainstComputed
Standard DCF$556$886.82 · −37%2026-06-10
Levered DCF$350$886.82 · −61%2026-06-10

The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.

Every estimate on one scale

price $971.21
52-week range$715 – $1100
Analyst targets$950 – $1358
Standard DCF$556 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $886.82
Levered DCF$350 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $886.82
At own 5y-median P/E (24×)$695
At 5y P/E range (23–25×)$654 – $733
At sector P/E (45×)$1287

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.