Parker-Hannifin Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Parker-Hannifin's FY2026 results (as of the fiscal year ended 30 Jun) demonstrate best-in-class execution: 8.3% revenue growth, 21.6% operating margin, $3.905B free cash flow, and debt reduced from $9.64B to $8.52B, with quarterly revenue accelerating from 3.7% YoY in Q1 to 9.8% in Q4 and a 12.2% EPS surprise in the latest reported quarter.
However, at $978.33 the stock still trades at 33.74x earnings — a 31.4% premium to the peer median of 25.67x — against EPS growth of just 5.0% and net income growth of 3.3%, leaving limited margin of safety despite the pullback from prior levels near $1,023. Smart-money sentiment is modestly positive at 0.04 as of Q2 2026 and Bank of America disclosed a new $3.27B position, but insiders remain net sellers at -$22.49M over 24 months, and the valuation premium is not sufficiently supported by the growth deceleration to justify a buy.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. At 33.74x PE, 31.4% above the peer median of 25.67x, any industrial-cycle slowdown or rate-driven multiple contraction could trigger a sharp derating with limited cushion from 5.0% EPS growth.
- Earnings growth deceleration. EPS growth slowed to 5.0% in FY2026 from 24.2% in FY2025 and 36.2% in FY2024; if margin expansion stalls, the premium multiple becomes harder to justify.
- Insider selling. Insiders net sold $22.49M over the trailing 24 months across 167 dispositions versus 95 acquisitions, with recent VP-level sales at prices above $958–$1,040.
- Cyclicality exposure. Diversified Industrial segment is exposed to industrial-cycle weakness; if FY2026's 8.3% revenue growth proves peak-cycle, the stock's premium valuation would be vulnerable.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: fundamentals, year to 30 Jun · peer comparison, 25 Sep · fundamentals, to 30 Jun · earnings vs estimates, 6 Aug. Orin's read on PH; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 16.3% over twelve months, from $774.18 on 27 Oct 2025 to $900.73 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $1,073.87 on 7 Aug 2026; the last close is 16.1% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 2.0M, on 30 Apr 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All PH filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $10.2B | 0.2% |
| State Street | $9.2B | 0.3% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $8.1B | 0.2% |
| FMR | $3.8B | 0.2% |
| Bank of America | $3.3B | 0.2% |
| Geode Capital Management | $2.8B | 0.2% |
| Morgan Stanley | $2.5B | 0.1% |
| Invesco | $2.0B | 0.2% |
| Norges Bank | $1.9B | 0.2% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $1.9B | 0.2% |
123 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 262 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$65.9M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 17 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about PH
Orin answers questions about PH from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 30.2× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close) — higher than in 4 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 24.0×); the typical Industrials company on the NYSE is at 33.7×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 30.2×above usual | 24.0× | 33.7× |
| P/S | 5.02×above usual | 3.23× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.2×above usual | 15.4× | — |
| P/B | 7.0×above usual | 5.3× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $1,141 (from $950 to $1,358) — 27% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$1,141
$950 – $1,358 · +27% against the last close
- 18 buy or overweight
- 4 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 30.2× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 10 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 31.6×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHParker-Hannifin Corporation | $113B | 30.2× | 21.2× | 37.7% | 16.6% | 25% |
| CRCrane Company | $11B | 32.9× | 20.9× | 30.1% | 12.4% | 16% |
| DOVDover Corporation | $28B | 23.9× | 15.2× | 39.7% | 13.6% | 15% |
| FLSFlowserve Corporation | $9B | 24.6× | 14.5× | 35.1% | 8.0% | 17% |
| IEXIDEX Corporation | $17B | 32.3× | 19.3× | 44.9% | 14.6% | 13% |
| IRIngersoll Rand Inc. | $29B | 30.8× | 16.5× | 37.9% | 12.1% | 9% |
| ITTITT Inc. | $18B | 40.2× | 19.8× | 35.5% | 8.1% | 9% |
| ITWIllinois Tool Works Inc. | $79B | 24.6× | 18.3× | 44.3% | 19.4% | 103% |
| MMM3M Company | $88B | 25.4× | 16.1× | 39.5% | 14.0% | 94% |
| NPOEnPro Industries, Inc. | $6B | 136× | 32.4× | 42.8% | 3.6% | 3% |
| RRXRegal Rexnord Corporation | $11B | 32.4× | 12.2× | 37.8% | 5.3% | 5% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 30.2× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now30.2×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Industrials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 33.7× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now33.7×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $701 a share — 22% below the $901.80 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $701 | 22% below $901.80 |
| Levered | $536 | 41% below $901.80 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.