Orin
PLNYSE·Aerospace & Defense

Planet Labs PBC PL

Market cap $5.4BP/E no earnings to divide byGross margin 55.4%
$16.38
−0.53 (−3.13%)Wed close 16:00 ET
52-wk $10.52 – $51.76
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Orin's take
0.62conviction · moderate
Refreshed 23 Sep · take v5. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

Planet Labs is showing genuine operational inflection—Q2 FY2027 revenue grew 58.1% YoY to $116.1M with the operating loss narrowing to -$13.5M from -$34.9M the prior quarter, and FY2026 produced positive free cash flow of $57.6M after years of cash burn. However, the stock still trades at 16.1x sales versus a 4.19x peer median, total debt has ballooned to $462.5M from $21.6M a year earlier, and insiders remain net sellers (-1.44M shares over 24 months) with the CFO and co-founder trimming positions as recently as August–September 2026.

With the stock at $16.91, down sharply from its 200-day average of $27.26 and RSI at 35.0, the improving fundamentals are increasingly compelling but the valuation premium and persistent insider selling argue for waiting for evidence that the growth and margin trajectory are durable.

What could go wrong

  • Valuation premium. At 16.1x sales versus a peer median of 4.19x, the stock prices in sustained hypergrowth; any deceleration could trigger a sharp re-rating lower.
  • Debt burden. Total debt surged to $462.5M as of FY2026 from $21.6M the prior year, creating interest expense pressure and balance sheet risk if growth stalls.
  • Insider selling. Insiders have net sold 1.44M shares worth $90.7M over 24 months, with the CFO and co-founder continuing to trim positions into the recent pullback.
  • Profitability uncertainty. Despite narrowing losses, FY2026 net income was -$246.9M and the operating margin remained deeply negative at -30.9%; a single quarter of near-breakeven does not establish a trend.

What would change my mind

Sustained operating breakeven. Two consecutive quarters with operating income at or near zero on revenue above $110Mbullish
Insider buying reversal. Open-market purchases by officers or directors exceeding $1M aggregate value with no offsetting salesbullish
Revenue deceleration. Quarterly YoY revenue growth falls below 30% for two consecutive quartersbearish
Debt covenant or cash concern. Quarterly filing reveals covenant pressure or cash balance falling below $50M without a clear refinancing pathbearish

Where this comes from: quarterly_results (period ended 2026-07-31) · fundamentals FY2026 (period ended 2026-01-31) · peer_relative composite · insider summary (24-month window). Orin's read on PL; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Vanguard Capital Management$426.4M0.0% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$395.8M0.0% of fund
D. E. Shaw &$322.9M0.2% of fund
Geode Capital Management$209.3M0.0% of fund
State Street$182.0M0.0% of fund
Invesco$141.3M0.0% of fund

78 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 175 Form 4 filings, net −$96.9M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 15 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

· Industrials
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/S14.42×
P/B10.4×
What the price assumes

29.1%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.1B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

23 firms · 2026-09-23
Consensus target

$35

$25$50 · +112% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 13 buy or overweight
  • 10 hold
  • 0 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 32.4× of 4 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
PLPlanet Labs PBC$5B55.4%-95.1%-93%
AGXArgan, Inc.$5B29.1×22.4×20.9%15.1%39%
EOSEEos Energy Enterprises, Inc.$1B-84.7%-246.8%56%
MRCYMercury Systems, Inc.$5B69.1×26.7%-3.0%-2%
MWAMueller Water Products, Inc.$3B15.2×9.7×37.9%15.0%21%
TPCTutor Perini Corporation$4B35.8×13.1×11.5%2.1%10%
VSECVSE Corporation$5B64.9×33.6×14.0%5.5%4%
WSCWillScot Holdings Corporation$3B19.7×48.4%-3.0%-7%

The median is of the 4 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year

What its sector has traded at

Industrials
FY14 173.5×FY26 32.7×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Every estimate on one scale

price $16.38
52-week range$11 – $52
Analyst targets$25 – $50

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.