Palantir Technologies Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Palantir's fundamental acceleration is extraordinary — Q2 2026 revenue of $1.94B grew 92.8% YoY, operating margin reached 31.6% in FY2025 with FCF margin of 46.9%, and the company beat EPS estimates by ~19% in the most recent quarter — but the stock at $209.05 trades at 165.9x earnings and 78.0x sales, roughly 255–528% above peer medians, pricing in years of flawless execution.
RSI at 76.3 signals an overbought tape after a 60% Q3 rally, insiders have sold a net $997M over 24 months across 462 dispositions with zero open-market acquisitions, and smart money scores have deteriorated from 0.23 to 0.11 as of the quarter ended 30 Jun. The growth story is real and possibly underappreciated even at these levels, but the multiple demands perfection and offers no margin of safety for new capital.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. At 165.9x PE and 78.0x PS — 255% and 528% above peer medians — any growth deceleration or guidance miss could trigger a sharp multiple contraction even if absolute growth remains strong.
- Insider selling persistence. Over 24 months, insiders executed 462 dispositions and zero open-market acquisitions, netting -$997M in value and -8.7M shares; continued selling at these levels signals that those closest to the business see limited upside relative to current prices.
- Smart money deterioration. Smart money score fell from 0.23 (as of 30 Sep 2025) to 0.11 (as of 30 Jun) with fund count declining from 64 to 70 then back down, suggesting institutional conviction is waning even as retail enthusiasm drives the stock higher.
- Technical overextension. RSI of 76.3 and a 60% quarterly gain leave the stock vulnerable to a mean-reversion pullback; with MA50 at $177 and MA200 at $152, a retreat to either level would represent a 15–27% drawdown from the $209.05 close.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: results, quarter to 30 Jun · FY25 fundamentals · technicals and peer comparison, 9 Oct · technicals and news, 10 Oct. Orin's read on PLTR; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 5.0% over twelve months, from $189.18 on 27 Oct 2025 to $198.73 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $209.05 on 9 Oct 2026; the last close is 4.9% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 175.0M, on 4 Aug 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
- Rose flags: large share sales by the company's own officers and directors, from the Form 4 each one files after trading.
On file
All PLTR filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $22.1B | 0.3% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $17.0B | 0.4% |
| State Street | $12.2B | 0.4% |
| Invesco | $8.2B | 0.7% |
| Geode Capital Management | $6.4B | 0.3% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $5.9B | 0.3% |
| Morgan Stanley | $4.0B | 0.2% |
| Norges Bank | $3.6B | 0.4% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $3.4B | 0.2% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $2.6B | 0.2% |
167 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 581 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$1.0B. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 39 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about PLTR
Orin answers questions about PLTR from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 158× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — lower than in all 3 of its last 5 fiscal years with a P/E (middle 258×); the typical Technology company on the NASDAQ is at 46.1×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 158×below usual | 258× | 46.1× |
| P/S | 74.3× | — | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 147×below usual | 249× | — |
| P/B | 48.7× | — | — |
- P/S: no usual level — it ran from 6.95× to 94.1× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- P/B: no usual level — it ran from 5.2× to 57.0× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $205 (from $80 to $265) — 3% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$205
$80 – $265 · +3% against the last close
- 13 buy or overweight
- 5 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 158× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 6 companies it is compared to that have a P/E that says something is 27.5×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTRPalantir Technologies Inc. | $457B | 158× | 147× | 84.8% | 49.0% | 37% |
| ADBEAdobe Inc. | $97B | 13.8× | 9.7× | 89.1% | 28.0% | 63% |
| AMDAdvanced Micro Devices, Inc. | $915B | 142× | 85.3× | 53.2% | 15.6% | 10% |
| ASMLASML Holding N.V. | $630B | 42.0× | 34.2× | 54.3% | 34.1% | 64% |
| CRMSalesforce, Inc. | $198B | 21.9× | 13.8× | 77.3% | 22.0% | 20% |
| CRWDCrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. | $274B | n/m | n/m | 75.2% | 1.1% | 1% |
| CSCOCisco Systems, Inc. | $439B | 33.1× | 23.1× | 64.5% | 21.0% | 27% |
| ORCLOracle Corporation | $395B | 20.1× | 13.6× | 63.9% | 26.4% | 43% |
| PANWPalo Alto Networks, Inc. | $329B | n/m | 213× | 70.4% | 2.7% | 2% |
- CRWD, PANW: P/E is not meaningful (n/m) — its profit over the last 12 months is so small against its price that the ratio says little.
- CRWD: EV/EBITDA is not meaningful (n/m) — its operating profit before depreciation over the last 12 months is so small against its price that the ratio says little.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 158× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now158×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Technology companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 46.1× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now46.1×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $9 a share — 95% below the $199.56 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $9 | 95% below $199.56 |
| Levered | $16 | 92% below $199.56 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.