Palantir Technologies Inc. PLTR
Palantir's FY2025 results are genuinely exceptional — revenue of $4.48B grew 56% YoY with operating margin expanding to 31.6% and FCF of $2.1B against only $229M of total debt — but the stock at $171.54 trades at 136x earnings and 64x sales, roughly 376–438% above peer medians, pricing in years of uninterrupted hypergrowth. Q2 2026 momentum persists with US commercial revenue up 149% YoY (per Seeking Alpha), yet insiders sold a net $898M over 24 months across 480 dispositions and smart money has deteriorated from +0.33 to -0.14 as of the quarter ended 2026-06-30.
The growth story is proven and the balance sheet is fortress-like; the multiple simply demands perfection with no margin of safety for new capital at these levels.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. At 136x P/E and 64x P/S — 376% and 438% above peer medians respectively — any deceleration in revenue growth or margin expansion could trigger a sharp multiple contraction.
- Persistent insider selling. Insiders disposed of a net $898M over 24 months across 480 transactions versus only 50 acquisitions, with continued selling by Sankar Shyam in August 2026.
- Smart money outflows. Smart money score deteriorated from +0.33 (Q3 2025) to -0.14 (Q2 2026) and fund count fell from 71 to 67, signaling reduced institutional conviction.
- Technical overheating. RSI at 65.7 with the stock trading 12% above its 200-day MA ($151.87) increases vulnerability to a momentum-driven pullback.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP fundamentals & derived_metrics FY2025 (period ended 2025-12-31) · peer_relative (as of 2026-08-18) · insider summary (24-month window) · smart_money (as of 2026-06-30). Orin's read on PLTR; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All PLTR filings| Form | Filed | What it says | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10-Q | 3 Aug | Palantir Technologies Inc. | read |
| 8-K | 3 Aug | Palantir Technologies Inc. | read |
| 8-K | 9 Jun | Palantir Technologies Inc. | read |
| 13G/A | 15 May | — | on file |
| 10-Q | 4 May | Palantir’s Q1 2026 revenue of $1.63 billion rose 85% YoY and 14% QoQ, driving GAAP EPS to $0.34 versus $0.08 a year ago; gross margin expanded 7 pts to 87% and operating margin jumped to 46% from 20%. | read |
| 8-K | 4 May | Palantir filed an 8-K on May 4, 2026, disclosing under Item 2.02 the release of its March 31, 2026 quarterly financial results; the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1. | read |
| 13G | 30 Apr | — | on file |
| DEFA14A | 24 Apr | — | on file |
Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $17.0B | 0.4% of fund |
| State Street | $12.2B | 0.4% of fund |
| Invesco | $8.2B | 0.7% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $6.4B | 0.3% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $5.9B | 0.3% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $4.0B | 0.2% of fund |
164 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 566 Form 4 filings, net −$990.8M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 37 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about PLTR
Orin answers questions about PLTR from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 152.2× | — | 53.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 141.5× | — | — |
| P/S | 71.53× | 22.72× | — |
| P/B | 47.0× | 15.3× | — |
Its P/E sits 40th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.07σ from its own mean).
40.7%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $2.1B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$183
$80 – $250 · −4% against today's price
- 13 buy or overweight
- 10 hold
- 3 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTRPalantir Technologies Inc. | $440B | 152.2× | 141.5× | 84.8% | 49.0% | 37% |
| ADBEAdobe Inc. | $96B | 13.4× | 9.6× | 89.1% | 28.0% | 63% |
| AMDAdvanced Micro Devices, Inc. | $1.00T | 156.0× | 93.4× | 53.2% | 15.6% | 10% |
| ASMLASML Holding N.V. | $672B | 55.0× | 42.0× | 52.7% | 30.1% | 52% |
| CRMSalesforce, Inc. | $195B | 21.6× | 14.4× | 77.3% | 22.0% | 20% |
| CRWDCrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. | $267B | — | — | 75.2% | 1.1% | 1% |
| CSCOCisco Systems, Inc. | $419B | 31.7× | 22.1× | 64.5% | 21.0% | 27% |
| ORCLOracle Corporation | $416B | 22.3× | 14.2× | 63.9% | 26.4% | 43% |
| PANWPalo Alto Networks, Inc. | $321B | — | — | 70.4% | 2.7% | 2% |
The median is of the 6 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 463.9% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $11 | $131.61 · −92% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $18 | $131.61 · −87% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.