Plug Power Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Plug Power is deteriorating on both fundamentals and price action, warranting an exit.
Despite FY2025 revenue growing 12.9% to $709.9M, the company posted a net loss of $1.63B with negative gross margin of -34.1% and free cash flow of -$661M, while total debt of $997M nearly equals stockholders' equity of $978M. Quarterly trends are worsening: Q2 2026 revenue growth collapsed to 2.5% YoY, gross profit turned negative again at -$1.7M, and the company missed EPS estimates by 80% in Q2 2026 and 100% in Q1 2026. The stock at $1.40 trades well below its 50-day ($2.00) and 200-day ($2.43) moving averages with an RSI of 23.8, and analysts cut price targets on October 14 citing adoption headwinds.
What could go wrong
- Margin inflection underway. The October 15 company update cited 'record low net cash usage of approximately $28M' and continued margin improvement; if Q3 2026 results (Nov 9) confirm a gross-profit inflection, the stock could reverse sharply from oversold levels.
- Dilution or financing risk. With FY2025 free cash flow of -$661M and total debt of $997M against equity of $978M, the company may need additional capital, but any favorable financing could temporarily stabilize the balance sheet.
- Hydrogen policy tailwinds. Government incentives or policy support for green hydrogen could accelerate adoption and improve the unit economics that currently produce negative gross margins.
- Technical oversold bounce. RSI at 23.8 and a 30% decline in four weeks create conditions for a sharp short-covering rally that could trap sellers.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: fundamentals, year to 31 Dec 2025 · FY25 fundamentals · results, quarter to 30 Jun · earnings vs estimates, 10 Aug. Orin's read on PLUG; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 52.7% over twelve months, from $2.96 on 27 Oct 2025 to $1.40 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $4.14 on 27 May 2026; the last close is 66.2% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 224.8M, on 3 Mar 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All PLUG filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $498.7M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $179.3M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $170.6M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $105.0M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $99.1M | 0.0% |
| Citadel Advisors | $65.4M | 0.0% |
| Two Sigma Investments | $61.3M | 0.0% |
| D. E. Shaw | $59.5M | 0.0% |
| Millennium Management | $37.1M | 0.0% |
| Northern Trust | $34.6M | 0.0% |
63 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 131 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net $21K. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 6 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about PLUG
Orin answers questions about PLUG from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E (Tue 27 Oct close). It is priced at 2.63× its yearly sales.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | lost money | — | 18.4× |
| P/S | 2.63× | — | — |
| EV/EBITDA | not meaningful | — | — |
| P/B | 3.3×above usual | 1.8× | — |
- P/E: lost money — no P/E over the last 12 months.
- P/S: no usual level — it ran from 2.91× to 31.4× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- EV/EBITDA: not meaningful — over the last 12 months the business itself lost money before depreciation (operating income plus depreciation is below zero); a profit from one-off gains does not count.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $2.65 (from $1.20 to $5) — 89% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$2.65
$1.20 – $5 · +89% against the last close
- 4 buy or overweight
- 5 hold
- 3 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E. Only 2 of the 5 companies it is compared to made a profit (BE 122×, MVST 3.3×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLUGPlug Power Inc. | $2B | lost money | n/m | −18.5% | −220.6% | −176% |
| AMPXAmprius Technologies, Inc. | $1B | lost money | n/m | 22.3% | −35.2% | −35% |
| BEBloom Energy Corporation | $65B | 122× | 105× | 32.3% | 13.5% | 40% |
| ENVXEnovix Corporation | $735M | lost money | n/m | −23.7% | −473.9% | −67% |
| FCELFuelCell Energy, Inc. | $974M | lost money | n/m | −32.4% | −113.9% | −22% |
| MVSTMicrovast Holdings, Inc. | $178M | 3.3× | n/m | 25.1% | 13.9% | 12% |
- AMPX, ENVX, FCEL: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- PLUG, AMPX, ENVX, FCEL, MVST: EV/EBITDA is not meaningful (n/m) — its cash exceeds its market value plus debt, or the business lost money before depreciation.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
It has lost money and has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so it has no P/E history.
- Nowlost money
- Now: no P/E — it lost money over the last 12 months.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Industrials companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 18.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now18.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
It spends more cash than it brings in, so a cash-flow model gives no usable value (both versions come out below zero).
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.