Plug Power Inc. PLUG
Plug Power's Q2 2026 results showed tangible margin progress — gross profit improved to -$1.7M from -$53.5M a year earlier, and management raised full-year revenue guidance while reiterating a Q4 2026 positive adjusted EBITDA target. However, the balance sheet remains precarious with $978M in stockholders' equity against $997M in total debt, FY2025 free cash flow was -$661M, and backlog has declined to multi-year lows.
At 3.92x sales versus a peer median of 2.71x, the stock prices in substantial turnaround progress while the path to sustainable profitability remains unproven.
What could go wrong
- Balance sheet and dilution risk. Stockholders' equity of $978M sits below total debt of $997M, and FY2025 free cash flow was -$661M, suggesting continued capital raises or dilution at depressed share prices.
- Backlog deterioration. Backlog has fallen to multi-year lows per recent coverage, and Q2 2026 revenue growth decelerated to 2.5% YoY from 22.3% in Q1 2026, raising questions about future revenue visibility.
- Q4 EBITDA target miss. Management's reiterated Q4 2026 positive adjusted EBITDA target is the core catalyst; failure to deliver would undermine the turnaround narrative and likely trigger a sharp re-rating lower.
- Competitive gap widening. Bloom Energy's quarterly revenue has reached $1.1B versus Plug Power's $178M, widening a competitive gap that could limit Plug's addressable market and pricing power.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: quarterly_results · FMP annual fundamentals · FMP annual fundamentals · peer_relative. Orin's read on PLUG; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All PLUG filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $179.3M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $170.6M | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $105.0M | 0.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $99.1M | 0.0% of fund |
| Citadel Advisors | $65.4M | 0.0% of fund |
| Two Sigma Investments | $61.3M | 0.0% of fund |
61 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 139 Form 4 filings, net $24.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 5 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about PLUG
Orin answers questions about PLUG from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/S | 3.67× | — | — |
| P/B | 4.7× | — | — |
What Wall Street published
$3
$2 – $5 · +58% against today's price
- 17 buy or overweight
- 16 hold
- 5 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLUGPlug Power Inc. | $3B | — | — | -18.5% | -220.6% | -176% |
| AMPXAmprius Technologies, Inc. | $1B | — | — | 22.3% | -35.2% | -35% |
| EAFGrafTech International Ltd. | $275M | — | — | -5.7% | -34.6% | 64% |
| EOSEEos Energy Enterprises, Inc. | $940M | — | — | -84.7% | -246.8% | 56% |
| GTLSChart Industries, Inc. | $10B | — | 26.0× | 31.3% | -0.6% | -1% |
| KAIKadant Inc. | $3B | 29.5× | 12.4× | 44.4% | 9.5% | 11% |
| KFYKorn Ferry | $4B | 13.3× | 6.7× | 9.9% | 9.4% | 14% |
The median is of the 2 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.