The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. PNC
PNC's FY2025 profitability expanded with EPS up 20.7% to $16.59 and operating margin at 27.08%, but revenue declined 6.98% to $31.34B and free cash flow fell to $4.38B from $7.88B, suggesting earnings growth relies on cost discipline rather than top-line momentum. At $246.46 as of 2026-08-19, the stock trades at 13.55x P/E — a 7.3% premium to the 12.63x peer median — and 3.22x P/S (33.7% premium), with conflicting valuation signals from a $216.13 GF Value and a $262 DCF fair value.
BlackRock's new ~$7.9B stake and a rising smart money score of 0.0897 as of Q2 2026 are encouraging, but $37.3M in net insider selling over 24 months and a bearish MACD crossover at the 50-day MA temper conviction. Hold — margin expansion and institutional inflows are real, but the revenue decline, FCF drop, and premium valuation create balanced risk/reward.
What could go wrong
- Revenue contraction persists. FY2025 revenue fell 6.98% to $31.34B from $33.69B; sustained top-line decline could eventually pressure the margin expansion story.
- FCF deterioration. Free cash flow nearly halved from $7.88B in FY2024 to $4.38B in FY2025, with FCF margin dropping from 23.39% to 13.99%, raising capital return sustainability questions.
- Valuation premium to peers. At 13.55x P/E (7.3% above peer median) and 3.22x P/S (33.7% above peer median), PNC trades at a meaningful premium while GF Value of $216.13 implies ~12% downside from the $246.46 close.
- Insider net selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders net sold $37.3M in value despite a positive net share count of 32,856, with recent EVP sales at $252-256 in July-August 2026.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: derived_metrics FY2025 · fundamentals FY2025/FY2024 + derived_metrics · fundamentals + derived_metrics FY2025/FY2024 · peer_relative. Orin's read on PNC; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All PNC filings| Form | Filed | What it says | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10-Q | 5 Aug | PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. | read |
| 8-K | 21 Jul | The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. | read |
| 8-K | 15 Jul | PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. | read |
| 8-K | 15 Jul | PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. | read |
| 8-K | 22 Jun | PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. | read |
| 8-K | 26 May | The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. | read |
| 13G/A | 8 May | — | on file |
| 13G/A | 8 May | — | on file |
Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $6.5B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $4.5B | 0.1% of fund |
| Fmr | $3.5B | 0.2% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.6B | 0.1% of fund |
| Norges Bank | $2.5B | 0.2% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $2.3B | 0.1% of fund |
117 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 204 Form 4 filings, net −$37.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 10 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about PNC
Orin answers questions about PNC from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 12.3× | 11.9× | 21.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.0× | 11.6× | — |
| P/S | 2.54× | 2.62× | — |
| P/B | 1.4× | 1.4× | — |
Its P/E sits 60th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.03σ from its own mean).
8.0%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $4.4B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$279
$257 – $305 · +25% against today's price
- 23 buy or overweight
- 22 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PNCThe PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. | $89B | 12.3× | 15.0× | 67.9% | 21.7% | 12% |
| CFGCitizens Financial Group, Inc. | $27B | 13.9× | 9.8× | 72.4% | 18.5% | 8% |
| FITBFifth Third Bancorp | $47B | 17.5× | 18.7× | 68.5% | 15.8% | 8% |
| HBANHuntington Bancshares Incorporated | $31B | 11.3× | 14.2× | 63.7% | 16.6% | 9% |
| KEYKeyCorp | $22B | 11.7× | 18.3× | 64.5% | 19.4% | 10% |
| RFRegions Financial Corporation | $23B | 11.0× | 7.2× | 76.8% | 23.3% | 12% |
| TFCTruist Financial Corporation | $59B | 10.7× | 17.0× | 64.0% | 19.1% | 9% |
| USBU.S. Bancorp | $91B | 11.7× | 11.1× | 63.8% | 18.7% | 12% |
The median is of the 7 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 5.6% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $128 | $235.65 · −46% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $168 | $235.65 · −29% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.