Pentair plc
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Pentair remains a hold ahead of its October 27 Q3 2026 earnings report, as a deeply discounted valuation (P/E of 13.33 versus a peer median of 26.65) is offset by severe operational deterioration and active securities fraud litigation.
Q2 2026 revenue collapsed -17.0% YoY to $932.6M, and the stock at $53.44 sits well below both its 50-day ($58.25) and 200-day ($78.42) moving averages, reflecting market skepticism about the pool destocking narrative. FY2025 fundamentals remain solid with a 20.5% operating margin and $746M free cash flow, and the recently announced Taco acquisition expands the water solutions portfolio, but the interim CFO, multiple securities class actions, and analyst expectations of an earnings decline make the risk/reward too binary to commit capital before the Q3 print.
What could go wrong
- Q3 earnings deterioration. Zacks reports analysts expect a Q3 2026 earnings decline; Q2 2026 revenue already fell -17.0% YoY, and a continued miss on October 27 could drive the stock below current support.
- Securities fraud litigation. Multiple class action lawsuits allege PNR concealed pool channel destocking during the March 11, 2025–July 14, 2026 class period; the lead plaintiff deadline passed October 2, 2026, but cases remain active and could result in settlements or further disclosures.
- Interim CFO governance gap. Robert Fishman serves as Interim EVP and CFO; insider activity over 24 months shows net dispositions of 29,111 shares with zero open-market acquisitions, signaling limited insider conviction at current levels.
- Pool market destocking extends. The sharp Q2 2026 revenue decline suggests pool channel destocking is deeper than a one-quarter event; prolonged weakness would pressure margins and FCF generation.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer comparison · Q2 2026 results · FY25 fundamentals · technicals, 16 Oct. Orin's read on PNR; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 42.9% over twelve months, from $109.13 on 27 Oct 2025 to $62.29 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $109.13 on 27 Oct 2025; the last close is 42.9% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 21.4M, on 31 Aug 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All PNR filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $1.1B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $810.1M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $701.7M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $575.2M | 0.0% |
| FMR | $518.0M | 0.0% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $491.3M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $384.5M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $338.0M | 0.0% |
| Bank of New York Mellon | $263.7M | 0.0% |
| Massachusetts Financial Services | $252.1M | 0.1% |
85 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 166 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$2.9M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 1 a sale — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about PNR
Orin answers questions about PNR from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 16.4× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 1 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 21.9×); the typical Industrials company on the NYSE is at 33.7×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 16.4×below usual | 21.9× | 33.7× |
| P/S | 2.51×below usual | 3.22× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.7×below usual | 18.1× | — |
| P/B | 2.6×below usual | 4.4× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $74.67 (from $50 to $92) — 20% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$74.67
$50 – $92 · +20% against the last close
- 8 buy or overweight
- 6 hold
- 3 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 16.4× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 8 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 23.2×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PNRPentair plc | $10B | 16.4× | 12.7× | 41.2% | 15.4% | 16% |
| AOSA. O. Smith Corporation | $8B | 17.3× | 11.8× | 38.6% | 13.1% | 27% |
| FELEFranklin Electric Co., Inc. | $4B | 21.8× | 14.6× | 35.4% | 8.8% | 14% |
| FLSFlowserve Corporation | $9B | 24.6× | 14.5× | 35.1% | 8.0% | 17% |
| ITTITT Inc. | $18B | 40.2× | 19.8× | 35.5% | 8.1% | 9% |
| MWAMueller Water Products, Inc. | $4B | 17.2× | 10.8× | 37.9% | 15.0% | 20% |
| WTSWatts Water Technologies, Inc. | $12B | 26.0× | 17.0× | 50.5% | 16.0% | 21% |
| XYLXylem Inc. | $22B | 20.5× | 16.9× | 39.3% | 15.7% | 10% |
| ZWSZurn Elkay Water Solutions Corporation | $8B | 28.2× | 21.1× | 47.1% | 16.3% | 18% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 16.4× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now16.4×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Industrials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 33.7× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now33.7×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $81 a share — 31% above the $62.28 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $81 | 31% above $62.28 |
| Levered | $87 | 40% above $62.28 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.