Insulet Corporation PODD
Insulet's stock has recovered to $151.51 from its early-August lows, but the risk/reward is now more balanced as RSI has normalized to 49.4 and the securities fraud class action—alleging systemic manufacturing defects in the Omnipod platform—remains unresolved ahead of the August 31, 2026 lead plaintiff deadline. FY2025 fundamentals are mixed: revenue grew 30.7% to $2.71B but net income fell 40.9% to $247.1M, while smart money scores have deteriorated from 0.0324 to 0.0008 over the past year.
The 28.3x P/E trades at an 11% discount to the peer median of 31.8x, and insiders remain net buyers at $16.6M over 24 months, but until the litigation and manufacturing quality overhangs are resolved, a neutral stance is warranted.
What could go wrong
- Securities fraud litigation. Multiple class actions allege Insulet made false statements regarding manufacturing controls and Omnipod safety, covering a class period from February 21, 2025 to May 26, 2026; lead plaintiff deadline is August 31, 2026.
- Profitability deterioration. Despite 30.7% revenue growth in FY2025, net income declined 40.9% to $247.1M and EPS fell to $3.48 from $5.78, suggesting cost pressures potentially tied to quality remediation.
- Smart money exodus. Smart money score has declined steadily from 0.0324 as of 2025-06-30 to 0.0008 as of 2026-06-30, indicating institutional positioning has gone essentially flat.
- Technical damage. Stock trades at $151.51, roughly 31% below its 200-day moving average of $220.84, with MACD still negative at -3.76, indicating sustained downtrend.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP FY2025 annual; derived_metrics revenue_growth_yoy · FMP FY2025 annual; derived_metrics net_income_growth_yoy · peer_relative pe and pe_vs_median_pct · insider summary net_value. Orin's read on PODD; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All PODD filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $689.0M | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $486.8M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $468.3M | 0.0% of fund |
| Aqr Capital Management | $373.8M | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $304.0M | 0.0% of fund |
| Two Sigma Investments | $289.8M | 0.2% of fund |
85 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 117 Form 4 filings, net $16.8M. Of the 50 on hand, 4 were open-market purchases and 1 a sale— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about PODD
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Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 25.5× | — | 26.4× |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.5× | 49.2× | — |
| P/S | 3.10× | 8.92× | — |
| P/B | 6.7× | 20.7× | — |
Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−0.66σ from its own mean).
10.8%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.4B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$185
$144 – $235 · +35% against today's price
- 28 buy or overweight
- 19 hold
- 3 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PODDInsulet Corporation | $9B | 25.5× | 15.5× | 71.1% | 12.3% | 27% |
| BIIBBiogen Inc. | $34B | 40.1× | 24.4× | 67.7% | 8.4% | 5% |
| DGXQuest Diagnostics Incorporated | $26B | 24.4× | 15.7× | 33.1% | 9.2% | 14% |
| DXCMDexCom, Inc. | $33B | 33.9× | 21.4× | 62.5% | 20.1% | 36% |
| LHLabcorp Holdings Inc. | $25B | 25.0× | 14.7× | 27.8% | 7.0% | 12% |
| STESTERIS plc | $20B | 25.6× | 12.2× | 44.4% | 13.3% | 11% |
| WATWaters Corporation | $41B | 104.6× | 51.4× | 50.8% | 3.6% | 2% |
| WSTWest Pharmaceutical Services, Inc. | $26B | 47.8× | 32.0× | 36.8% | 17.0% | 19% |
| ZBHZimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc. | $18B | 22.0× | 12.6× | 69.9% | 9.5% | 6% |
The median is of the 8 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 14.4% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $-33 | $153.36 · −122% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $29 | $153.36 · −81% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.