Pool Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Pool Corporation is an oversold cyclical recovery story trading at $161.42, down sharply from its 200-day MA of $208.68 with an RSI of 29.77, yet the fundamental downtrend is showing early signs of reversal: Q1 and Q2 2026 revenue grew 6.2% and 2.2% YoY respectively, and both quarters beat EPS estimates ($1.43 vs $1.34 and $5.38 vs $5.33).
At a P/E of 14.92 versus a peer median of 30.64, the stock discounts a deep cyclical trough, and a May 2026 insider cluster buy by four insiders totaling ~$4.0M—including Perez de la Mesa's purchases at $175.95 and $190.00—signals confidence near these levels. The call is buy on valuation and insider conviction, but conviction is tempered by compressed operating margins (11.0% in FY2025 vs 16.6% in FY2022), elevated total debt of $1.54B, and FCF that fell to $309.5M in FY2025 from $828.1M in FY2023.
What could go wrong
- Margin recovery stalls. FY2025 operating margin of 11.0% is well below the FY2022 level of 16.6%; if cost pressures or pricing competition persist, earnings power remains structurally lower.
- New pool construction stays weak. Revenue growth turned only modestly positive in H1 2026 (+2.2% in Q2); a housing downturn or interest rate environment that suppresses new pool builds would limit the cyclical recovery thesis.
- Balance sheet deterioration. Total debt rose to $1.54B in FY2025 from $1.27B in FY2024 while FCF fell to $309.5M, reducing financial flexibility for acquisitions and buybacks.
- Technical downtrend persists. Stock trades 13% below its 50-day MA ($182.73) and 23% below its 200-day MA ($208.68); MACD line and signal remain deeply negative despite a marginally positive histogram.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: technicals, 2 Oct · peer comparison · quarterly results · earnings vs estimates. Orin's read on POOL; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 33.6% over twelve months, from $293.56 on 27 Oct 2025 to $194.90 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $293.56 on 27 Oct 2025; the last close is 33.6% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 8.3M, on 18 Jun 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All POOL filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $866.6M | 0.0% |
| Wellington Management Group | $553.6M | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $442.9M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $373.2M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $330.2M | 0.0% |
| AQR Capital Management | $296.7M | 0.1% |
| State Street | $231.7M | 0.0% |
| Massachusetts Financial Services | $170.2M | 0.1% |
| Bank of New York Mellon | $148.2M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $125.4M | 0.0% |
88 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 79 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net $5.7M. Of the 50 on hand, 10 were open-market purchases and 2 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about POOL
Orin answers questions about POOL from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 17.9× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 1 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 29.6×); the typical Industrials company on the NASDAQ is at 18.4×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 17.9×below usual | 29.6× | 18.4× |
| P/S | 1.30×below usual | 2.44× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.8×below usual | 21.3× | — |
| P/B | 5.7×below usual | 10.2× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $205 (from $165 to $250) — 5% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$205
$165 – $250 · +5% against the last close
- 5 buy or overweight
- 5 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 17.9× its last 12 months of profit. Only 1 of the 1 companies it is compared to made a profit (PNR 16.4×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| POOLPool Corporation | $7B | 17.9× | 13.8× | 29.4% | 7.3% | 33% |
| PNRPentair plc | $10B | 16.4× | 12.7× | 41.2% | 15.4% | 16% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 17.9× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now17.9×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Industrials companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 18.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now18.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $197 a share — 1% above the $194.10 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $197 | 1% above $194.10 |
| Levered | $137 | 29% below $194.10 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.