Orin
PORNYSE·Regulated Electric

Portland General Electric Company POR

Market cap $5.3BP/E 20.3× trailingGross margin 44.4%Reports Fri 30 Oct, before the open
$45.96
−0.63 (−1.35%)live 11:25 ET
52-wk $42.58 – $54.62
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Orin's take
0.55conviction · moderate
Refreshed 18 Aug · take v3. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

POR is a hold at $50.87 as of the close on 2026-08-17. The stock trades at a 24.6% EV/EBITDA discount and 33.9% P/S discount to regulated-electric peers, and Q2 2026 results confirmed 11% YoY industrial demand growth with reaffirmed 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $3.33–$3.53.

However, FY2025 gross margin compressed sharply to 33.65% from 46.1% in FY2024, EPS declined 8.31% to $2.76, free cash flow remained negative at -$71M, and the smart money score has faded to 0.0067 as of Q2 2026 from 0.0173 in Q3 2025 — making the demand-growth narrative insufficient to justify a more aggressive stance until margin trends stabilize.

What could go wrong

  • Gross margin compression. FY2025 gross margin fell to 33.65% from 46.1% in FY2024, potentially reflecting structural power-cost pressures rather than purely timing effects.
  • Persistent negative FCF. Free cash flow was -$71M in FY2025 against capex of $1.189B, and total debt rose to $5.532B from $5.171B year-over-year.
  • Regulatory and rate-case risk. Oregon regulatory outcomes could constrain cost recovery and earnings, particularly given the margin pressure already evident in FY2025.
  • Declining institutional conviction. Smart money score fell to 0.0067 as of Q2 2026 from 0.0173 in Q3 2025, signaling waning interest among sophisticated funds despite a rising fund count.

What would change my mind

Gross margin recovery. Gross margin rebounds toward the 46–47% range seen in FY2023–FY2024 in upcoming quarterly resultsbullish
FCF breakeven. Operating cash flow growth continues and capex moderates sufficiently to produce positive free cash flowbullish
Guidance reduction. Management lowers 2026 adjusted EPS guidance below the current $3.33–$3.53 rangebearish
Further margin deterioration. Gross margin declines further below the FY2025 level of 33.65% in upcoming quartersbearish

Where this comes from: peer_relative · peer_relative · Q2 2026 results (PRNewsWire, 2026-07-31) · Q2 2026 results (PRNewsWire, 2026-07-31). Orin's read on POR; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$378.3M0.0% of fund
Vanguard Capital Management$271.4M0.0% of fund
State Street$262.8M0.0% of fund
Aqr Capital Management$246.2M0.1% of fund
Two Sigma Investments$169.8M0.1% of fund
Geode Capital Management$168.2M0.0% of fund

65 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 176 Form 4 filings, net $9.4M. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 9 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

· Utilities
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E20.3×—25.9×
EV/EBITDA9.6×——
P/S1.56×——
P/B1.3×——

What Wall Street published

24 firms · 2026-09-24
Consensus target

$52

$51 – $52 · +12% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 8 buy or overweight
  • 15 hold
  • 1 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 20.0× of 7 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
PORPortland General Electric Company$5B20.3×9.6×44.4%7.4%6%
BKHBlack Hills Corporation$5B17.6×12.6×42.9%13.0%8%
CMSCMS Energy Corporation$20B18.6×12.4×69.7%11.6%11%
IDAIDACORP, Inc.$7B20.7×13.8×21.7%18.8%9%
LNTAlliant Energy Corporation$16B20.0×13.7×42.0%18.4%11%
NWENorthwestern Energy Group Inc$4B24.4×13.1×66.5%10.1%6%
PNWPinnacle West Capital Corporation$11B17.1×10.3×55.5%11.5%9%
TXNMTXNM Energy, Inc.$6B32.3×7.1×39.6%8.8%6%

The median is of the 7 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 1.9% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY14 16.9×FY25 17.3×

What its sector has traded at

Utilities
FY14 14.0×FY26 27.4×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Every estimate on one scale

price $45.96
52-week range$43 – $55
Analyst targets$51 – $52
At sector P/E (26×)$59

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.