Portland General Electric Company
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
POR remains a hold at $44.15 as of 16 Oct.
The stock trades at a 23.9% EV/EBITDA discount to peers (9.38x vs 12.33x median) and an RSI of 33.9 signals an oversold condition, but FY2025 gross margin collapsed to 33.7% from 46.1% in FY2024, EPS fell 8.3% to $2.76, and the first two quarters of 2026 show continued revenue declines (Q1 -5.3% YoY, Q2 -2.5% YoY) with a severe Q1 EPS miss of $0.58 vs $0.767 estimate. The valuation discount is earned until the PacifiCorp acquisition and 30% large-load price increase translate into stabilized margins and earnings, making the October 29 Q3 2026 release the decisive catalyst.
What could go wrong
- Margin compression persists. FY2025 gross margin fell to 33.7% from 46.1% in FY2024; if Q3 2026 results on October 29 show no recovery, the discount-to-peers thesis weakens further.
- Negative free cash flow. FCF has been negative for five consecutive years, most recently -$71M in FY2025 with capex of $1.189B, pressuring the balance sheet as total debt rose to $5.532B.
- Insider selling. Over 24 months insiders net sold 67,221 shares for -$3.02M in net value, with only one acquisition cluster (board members at $52.05 in July 2026) amid ongoing dispositions.
- Regulatory uncertainty. The Oregon PUC's September 2026 order imposed conditions including an $83M rate credit on the holding-company reorganization, potentially capping near-term earnings recovery.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer comparison, 16 Oct · technicals, 16 Oct · FY24 and FY25 fundamentals · Q1–Q2 2026 results. Orin's read on POR; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 3.9% over twelve months, from $46.44 on 27 Oct 2025 to $44.65 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $54.22 on 9 Apr 2026; the last close is 17.7% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 8.5M, on 22 Oct 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All POR filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $970.2M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $378.3M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $271.4M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $262.8M | 0.0% |
| AQR Capital Management | $246.2M | 0.1% |
| Two Sigma Investments | $169.8M | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $168.2M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $166.8M | 0.0% |
| Norges Bank | $127.9M | 0.0% |
| Massachusetts Financial Services | $120.7M | 0.0% |
67 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 174 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$2.9M. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 9 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about POR
Orin answers questions about POR from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 19.5× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 18.6×); the typical Utilities company on the NYSE is at 18.5×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 19.5×near usual | 18.6× | 18.5× |
| P/S | 1.52×near usual | 1.57× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.4×near usual | 9.9× | — |
| P/B | 1.3×near usual | 1.3× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $52 (from $47 to $57) — 16% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$52
$47 – $57 · +16% against the last close
- 2 buy or overweight
- 6 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 19.5× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 7 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 22.8×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PORPortland General Electric Company | $5B | 19.5× | 9.4× | 44.4% | 7.4% | 6% |
| BKHBlack Hills Corporation | $6B | 20.2× | — | 49.9% | 13.5% | n/m |
| CMSCMS Energy Corporation | $22B | 24.2× | 13.6× | 77.2% | 9.7% | 8% |
| IDAIDACORP, Inc. | $8B | 22.8× | 14.7× | 21.7% | 18.8% | 9% |
| LNTAlliant Energy Corporation | $18B | 22.1× | 14.6× | 42.0% | 18.4% | 11% |
| NWENorthwestern Energy Group Inc | $5B | 30.7× | 14.8× | 64.7% | 9.5% | 6% |
| PNWPinnacle West Capital Corporation | $13B | 20.0× | 10.9× | 46.9% | 11.5% | 9% |
| TXNMTXNM Energy, Inc. | $6B | 32.5× | 6.7× | 39.6% | 8.8% | 6% |
- BKH: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 19.5× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now19.5×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Utilities companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 18.5× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now18.5×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
It spends more cash than it brings in, so a cash-flow model gives no usable value (both versions come out below zero).
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.