PPG Industries, Inc. PPG
PPG trades at a 26% P/E discount (15.6x vs 21.1x peer median) and 25% EV/EBITDA discount (10.9x vs 14.5x) to its specialty chemicals peer group, with Q2 2026 revenue accelerating 7.2% YoY to $4.5B — the strongest top-line growth in several quarters. However, FY2025 gross margin compressed ~360bp to 38.0% from 41.6%, operating income declined to $2.17B from $2.29B, and total debt rose $1.5B to $7.9B, constraining balance-sheet flexibility.
With the stock at $109.70, below both its 50-day ($116.32) and 200-day ($111.16) moving averages with MACD in bearish crossover, the risk/reward is balanced; hold until evidence of gross margin stabilization and deleveraging emerges.
What could go wrong
- Margin compression. FY2025 gross margin fell to 38.0% from 41.6%; continued raw material inflation or pricing weakness could further erode profitability despite revenue growth.
- Balance-sheet leverage. Total debt rose to $7.9B in FY2025 from $6.4B in FY2024; further debt-funded activity or rising rates could pressure credit metrics and financial flexibility.
- End-market weakness. Weak auto refinish and European demand (per Zacks commentary) could persist, limiting the revenue growth recovery visible in Q1–Q2 2026.
- Technical breakdown. Stock at $109.70 is below 50-day MA ($116.32) and 200-day MA ($111.16) with RSI at 38.4; sustained weakness below these levels could signal further downside.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer_relative · quarterly_results · derived_metrics · fundamentals. Orin's read on PPG; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All PPG filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.8B | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $1.7B | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.6B | 0.1% of fund |
| Wellington Management Group Llp | $1.0B | 0.2% of fund |
| Franklin Resources | $956.0M | 0.2% of fund |
| Hotchkis & Wiley Capital Management | $768.0M | 2.2% of fund |
84 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 533 Form 4 filings, net $7.9M. Of the 50 on hand, 2 were open-market purchases and 0 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about PPG
Orin answers questions about PPG from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 15.1× | 27.8× | 29.8× |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.6× | 16.5× | — |
| P/S | 1.44× | 1.90× | — |
| P/B | 2.8× | — | — |
Its P/E sits 20th percentile of its own last 5 years (−1.85σ from its own mean).
7.9%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.2B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$132
$122 – $138 · +23% against today's price
- 21 buy or overweight
- 15 hold
- 2 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPGPPG Industries, Inc. | $24B | 15.1× | 10.6× | 40.1% | 9.6% | 19% |
| AXTAAxalta Coating Systems Ltd. | $7B | 19.8× | 10.3× | 32.6% | 6.8% | 15% |
| DDDuPont de Nemours, Inc. | $18B | 283.2× | 14.3× | 34.4% | 0.7% | 0% |
| DOWDow Inc. | $21B | — | 16.3× | 9.8% | -2.9% | -7% |
| IFFInternational Flavors & Fragrances Inc. | $22B | 78.8× | 18.6× | 37.5% | 2.9% | 2% |
| LYBLyondellBasell Industries N.V. | $19B | — | 16.4× | 13.2% | -1.1% | -3% |
| RPMRPM International Inc. | $13B | 19.0× | 11.4× | 41.4% | 8.4% | 21% |
| STLDSteel Dynamics, Inc. | $34B | 21.2× | 12.6× | 14.6% | 7.8% | 18% |
The median is of the 5 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 28.7% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $146 | $114.97 · +27% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $135 | $114.97 · +18% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.