PPG Industries, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
PPG trades at a ~24% P/E discount (15.1x vs 19.8x peer median) and ~26% EV/EBITDA discount (10.6x vs 14.2x) to specialty chemicals peers, with 2026 quarterly revenue accelerating to +7.2% YoY in Q2 ($4.5B) and +6.7% in Q1 after essentially flat FY2025 revenue of $15.9B.
However, FY2025 gross margin compressed to 38.0% from 41.6%, total debt rose to $7.9B from $6.4B, and the stock at $105.15 remains below both its 50-day ($111.12) and 200-day ($111.98) moving averages with RSI at 40.7. Hold pending Q3 2026 results on Oct 27 for evidence of margin stabilization and deleveraging.
What could go wrong
- Margin compression. FY2025 gross margin fell to 38.0% from 41.6%, with Automotive Refinish weakness cited as an ongoing drag on high-margin coatings revenue.
- Balance sheet leverage. Total debt increased to $7.9B in FY2025 from $6.4B in FY2024, constraining financial flexibility despite improved FCF of $1.16B.
- Technical downtrend. Stock at $105.15 trades below both its 50-day ($111.12) and 200-day ($111.98) moving averages with RSI at 40.7, reflecting bearish momentum.
- Earnings quality and flows. Q2 2026 EPS slightly missed estimates ($2.23 vs $2.25), and smart money score remains very low at 0.045 with 61 funds as of Q2 2026.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer comparison, 2 Oct · Q1–Q2 FY26 results · FY24 and FY25 fundamentals · technicals, 2 Oct. Orin's read on PPG; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 7.6% over twelve months, from $105.45 on 27 Oct 2025 to $113.44 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $131.56 on 12 Feb 2026; the last close is 13.8% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 5.9M, on 16 Jan 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All PPG filings| Form | Filed | What it says | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13G | 7 Aug | — | on file |
| 10-Q | 29 Jul | PPG Industries reported net sales of $4.495 billion for the three months ended June 30, 2026, a 7.2% increase year-over-year. | read |
| 8-K | 28 Jul | PPG Industries, Inc. reported financial results on July 28, 2026, via an earnings press release furnished under Item 2.02 and Exhibit 99. | read |
| 13G/A | 15 May | — | on file |
| 13G | 30 Apr | — | on file |
| 10-Q | 29 Apr | Net sales rose 6.7 % to $3.93 billion in 1Q26 from $3.68 billion in 1Q25, driven by a 6 % foreign-currency tailwind and 1 % higher selling prices; volume was flat. | read |
| 13G | 29 Apr | — | on file |
| 8-K | 28 Apr | PPG filed an 8-K on April 28, 2026, furnishing its earnings press release under Item 2.02 and attaching it as Exhibit 99. | read |
Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $2.9B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.8B | 0.0% |
| State Street | $1.7B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.6B | 0.1% |
| Wellington Management Group | $1.0B | 0.2% |
| Franklin Resources | $956.0M | 0.2% |
| Hotchkis & Wiley Capital Management | $768.0M | 2.2% |
| Geode Capital Management | $734.8M | 0.0% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $539.6M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $434.8M | 0.0% |
87 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 549 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$13.6M. Of the 50 on hand, 2 were open-market purchases and 0 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about PPG
Orin answers questions about PPG from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 16.1× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 1 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 27.8×); the typical Basic Materials company on the NYSE is at 22.4×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 16.1×below usual | 27.8× | 22.4× |
| P/S | 1.51×below usual | 1.90× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.2×below usual | 16.5× | — |
| P/B | below zero | 4.5× | — |
- P/B: below zero — it owes more than it owns on its books.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $131 (from $116 to $138) — 15% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$131
$116 – $138 · +15% against the last close
- 7 buy or overweight
- 5 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 16.1× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 4 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 19.7×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPGPPG Industries, Inc. | $25B | 16.1× | 12.2× | 29.5% | 9.4% | n/m |
| AXTAAxalta Coating Systems Ltd. | $7B | 21.2× | 10.0× | 32.6% | 6.8% | 15% |
| FULH.B. Fuller Company | $3B | 13.6× | 8.6× | 32.8% | 5.6% | 10% |
| RPMRPM International Inc. | $13B | 18.1× | 11.8× | 41.2% | 8.7% | 21% |
| SHWThe Sherwin-Williams Company | $79B | 29.7× | 20.2× | 48.7% | 10.7% | 27% |
- PPG: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 16.1× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now16.1×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Basic Materials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 22.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now22.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $128 a share — 15% above the $111.93 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $128 | 15% above $111.93 |
| Levered | $121 | 8% above $111.93 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.