Orin
PPGNYSE·Chemicals - Specialty

PPG Industries, Inc. PPG

Market cap $23.7BP/E 15.1× trailingGross margin 40.1%Reports Tue 27 Oct, after the close
$106.61
+0.28 (+0.27%)live 11:20 ET
52-wk $93.39 – $133.43
Watch
Orin's take
0.62conviction · moderate
Refreshed 2 Sep · take v8. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

PPG trades at a 26% P/E discount (15.6x vs 21.1x peer median) and 25% EV/EBITDA discount (10.9x vs 14.5x) to its specialty chemicals peer group, with Q2 2026 revenue accelerating 7.2% YoY to $4.5B — the strongest top-line growth in several quarters. However, FY2025 gross margin compressed ~360bp to 38.0% from 41.6%, operating income declined to $2.17B from $2.29B, and total debt rose $1.5B to $7.9B, constraining balance-sheet flexibility.

With the stock at $109.70, below both its 50-day ($116.32) and 200-day ($111.16) moving averages with MACD in bearish crossover, the risk/reward is balanced; hold until evidence of gross margin stabilization and deleveraging emerges.

What could go wrong

  • Margin compression. FY2025 gross margin fell to 38.0% from 41.6%; continued raw material inflation or pricing weakness could further erode profitability despite revenue growth.
  • Balance-sheet leverage. Total debt rose to $7.9B in FY2025 from $6.4B in FY2024; further debt-funded activity or rising rates could pressure credit metrics and financial flexibility.
  • End-market weakness. Weak auto refinish and European demand (per Zacks commentary) could persist, limiting the revenue growth recovery visible in Q1–Q2 2026.
  • Technical breakdown. Stock at $109.70 is below 50-day MA ($116.32) and 200-day MA ($111.16) with RSI at 38.4; sustained weakness below these levels could signal further downside.

What would change my mind

Gross margin recovery. Q3 2026 gross margin shows sequential improvement toward or above 40%bullish
Debt reduction. Management announces or executes material debt paydown, reducing total debt from the FY2025 level of $7.9Bbullish
Revenue deceleration. Q3 2026 revenue growth falls below 5% YoY, reversing the 7%+ trend seen in Q1–Q2 2026bearish
200-day MA reclaim. Stock closes above $111.16 (200-day MA) on sustained volume with MACD turning positivebullish

Where this comes from: peer_relative · quarterly_results · derived_metrics · fundamentals. Orin's read on PPG; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Vanguard Capital Management$1.8B0.0% of fund
State Street$1.7B0.0% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$1.6B0.1% of fund
Wellington Management Group Llp$1.0B0.2% of fund
Franklin Resources$956.0M0.2% of fund
Hotchkis & Wiley Capital Management$768.0M2.2% of fund

84 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 533 Form 4 filings, net $7.9M. Of the 50 on hand, 2 were open-market purchases and 0 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

vs its own 5y · Basic Materials
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E15.1×27.8×29.8×
EV/EBITDA10.6×16.5×—
P/S1.44×1.90×—
P/B2.8×——

Its P/E sits 20th percentile of its own last 5 years (−1.85σ from its own mean).

What the price assumes

7.9%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.2B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

38 firms · 2026-09-24
Consensus target

$132

$122 – $138 · +23% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 21 buy or overweight
  • 15 hold
  • 2 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 21.2× of 5 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
PPGPPG Industries, Inc.$24B15.1×10.6×40.1%9.6%19%
AXTAAxalta Coating Systems Ltd.$7B19.8×10.3×32.6%6.8%15%
DDDuPont de Nemours, Inc.$18B283.2×14.3×34.4%0.7%0%
DOWDow Inc.$21B—16.3×9.8%-2.9%-7%
IFFInternational Flavors & Fragrances Inc.$22B78.8×18.6×37.5%2.9%2%
LYBLyondellBasell Industries N.V.$19B—16.4×13.2%-1.1%-3%
RPMRPM International Inc.$13B19.0×11.4×41.4%8.4%21%
STLDSteel Dynamics, Inc.$34B21.2×12.6×14.6%7.8%18%

The median is of the 5 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 28.7% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY14 15.2×FY25 14.7×

What its sector has traded at

Basic Materials
FY14 23.8×FY26 28.6×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Discounted cash flow

not recomputed since
ModelFair valueAgainstComputed
Standard DCF$146$114.97 · +27%2026-06-10
Levered DCF$135$114.97 · +18%2026-06-10

The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.

Every estimate on one scale

price $106.61
52-week range$93 – $133
Analyst targets$122 – $138
Standard DCF$146 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $114.97
Levered DCF$135 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $114.97
At own 5y-median P/E (28×)$195
At 5y P/E range (15–29×)$103 – $203
At sector P/E (30×)$209

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.