PPLNYSE·Regulated Electric

PPL Corporation PPL

Market cap $23.8BP/E 26.1× trailingGross margin 34.6%Reports Wed 4 Nov, before the open

$31.64

−0.34 (−1.05%)live 11:20 ET

52-wk $31.60 – $40.11

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Orin's take

0.62conviction · moderate

Refreshed 26 Aug · take v7. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

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PPL Corporation's earnings momentum is genuine—diluted EPS grew 32.5% in 2025 to $1.59 with operating margin expanding to 23.55% from 20.56%—but the stock trades at a 35.8% P/E premium to the peer median (27.6x vs 20.3x) while free cash flow deteriorated sharply to -$1.4B in 2025 (FCF margin -15.49%) as capex ballooned to $4.03B. Total debt climbed to $19.35B from $16.8B in 2024, and the stock sits below both its 50-day ($35.79) and 200-day ($36.37) moving averages with a negative MACD histogram, signaling the market has not yet rewarded the AI/data center growth narrative.

The smart money score is marginally positive at 0.0085 as of Q2 2026 with fund count rising to 64, but until capex execution translates into visible earnings that justify the premium multiple, this remains a wait-and-see story.

What could go wrong

Capex escalation without rate recovery. Capex jumped to $4.03B in 2025 from $2.805B in 2024, driving FCF to -$1.4B; if regulators don't approve timely rate cases, the earnings growth thesis weakens while leverage rises.
Valuation premium compression. At 27.6x P/E versus a peer median of 20.3x, any disappointment in growth delivery could trigger multiple contraction toward peer levels.
Rising leverage. Total debt increased from $14.2B in 2022 to $19.35B in 2025; sustained negative FCF could pressure credit metrics and financing costs.
Technical breakdown. Stock at $34.99 is below both the 50-day ($35.79) and 200-day ($36.37) moving averages with RSI at 44.7 and negative MACD histogram, suggesting near-term downside momentum.

What would change my mind

Rate case approval. Pennsylvania or Kentucky regulators approve base rate increases that materially improve 2026 operating margin beyond current 23.55%bullish

FCF improvement. Free cash flow narrows meaningfully from the -$1.4B 2025 level as capex stabilizes or operating cash flow scalesbullish

Data center load commitments. Signed contracts with data center customers for incremental load that quantify the $23B investment thesis into contracted revenuebullish

Credit downgrade or leverage breach. Rating agencies downgrade PPL or debt-to-equity deteriorates further from the 2025 level of $19.35B debt against $14.88B equitybearish

Where this comes from: FMP FY2025 + derived_metrics · derived_metrics · peer_relative · FMP FY2025 + derived_metrics. Orin's read on PPL; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

On file

All PPL filings

Form	Filed	What it says	Read
8-K	27 Aug	The Rhode Island Public Utilities Commission approved annual revenue increases of $44.1 million for electric and $93.7 million for gas for Rhode Island Energy, effective September 1, 2026.	read
8-K	17 Aug	The Kentucky Public Service Commission (KPSC) issued an order on August 14, 2026, approving certain elements of Louisville Gas and Electric Company (LG&E) and Kentucky Utilities…	read
10-Q	7 Aug	PPL Corporation reported net income of $230 million ($0.30 diluted EPS) for the three months ended June 30, 2026, an increase from $183 million ($0.25 diluted EPS) in the prior year period.	read
8-K	7 Aug	PPL Corporation reported second-quarter 2026 ongoing earnings per share of $0.33, an increase from $0.32 in the prior year.	read
13G	31 Jul	—	on file
13G/A	28 Jul	—	on file
8-K	30 Jun	PPL Corporation elected Kenneth M.	read
8-K	4 Jun	PPL Electric Utilities Corporation, a subsidiary of PPL Corporation, received Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission approval on June 4, 2026, for a modified settlement agreement…	read

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow

Filer	Position	Of fund
Vanguard Capital Management	$1.7B	0.0% of fund
State Street	$1.5B	0.0% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management	$1.4B	0.1% of fund
Invesco	$1.0B	0.1% of fund
Wellington Management Group Llp	$776.9M	0.1% of fund
Geode Capital Management	$722.0M	0.0% of fund

102 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 294 Form 4 filings, net $15.5M. Of the 50 on hand, none was an open-market trade— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

vs its own 5y · Utilities

Metric	Now	Own median	Sector
P/E	26.1×	—	25.9×
EV/EBITDA	13.4×	12.1×	—
P/S	3.50×	2.83×	—
P/B	2.2×	1.7×	—

Its P/E sits 40th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.49σ from its own mean).

What Wall Street published

29 firms · 2026-09-24

Consensus target

$40

$35 – $44 · +25% against today's price

How they rate it

21 buy or overweight
8 hold
0 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 18.6× of 7 peers

Company	Market cap	P/E	EV/EBITDA	Gross	Net	ROE
PPLPPL Corporation	$24B	26.1×	13.4×	34.6%	13.5%	9%
AEEAmeren Corporation	$27B	17.3×	11.8×	41.1%	17.9%	12%
ATOAtmos Energy Corporation	$26B	18.4×	13.4×	61.0%	28.5%	10%
CMSCMS Energy Corporation	$20B	18.6×	12.4×	69.7%	11.6%	11%
DTEDTE Energy Company	$25B	19.0×	12.4×	36.7%	8.1%	11%
ESEversource Energy	$24B	16.5×	9.6×	35.2%	10.4%	9%
FEFirstEnergy Corp.	$25B	23.0×	11.5×	53.4%	6.9%	9%
SOThe Southern Company	$95B	19.9×	11.9×	43.4%	15.4%	13%

The median is of the 7 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 40.3% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year

FY14 19.3×FY25 32.0×

What its sector has traded at

Utilities

FY14 14.0×FY26 27.4×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Discounted cash flow

not recomputed since

Model	Fair value	Against	Computed
Standard DCF	$-23	$35.68 · −163%	2026-06-10
Levered DCF	$-46	$35.68 · −229%	2026-06-10

The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.

Every estimate on one scale

price $31.64

52-week range$32 – $40

Analyst targets$35 – $44

Standard DCF$-23 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $35.68

Levered DCF$-46 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $35.68

At own 5y-median P/E (27×)$33

At 5y P/E range (-15–28×)$-19 – $35

At sector P/E (26×)$32

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.