PPL Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
PPL's earnings momentum is genuine—FY2025 diluted EPS grew 32.5% to $1.59 with operating margin expanding to 23.6% from 20.6%—but the stock trades at a 32.8% P/E premium to the peer median (27.56x vs 20.76x) while free cash flow remains deeply negative at -$1.401B (FCF margin -15.5%) and total debt has climbed to $19.35B.
The recent rally to $35.17 has pushed RSI to 67.2 and the stock back above its 50-day MA ($34.19), yet it still sits below the 200-day MA ($36.08) and insiders remain net sellers (-33,044 shares over 24 months, including an EVP sale on 15 Oct). The $23B capex plan targeting 6-8% earnings growth through 2029 is promising, but until capex converts into visible rate-base earnings and FCF improves, the premium multiple is not adequately supported.
What could go wrong
- Negative free cash flow persistence. FY2025 FCF of -$1.401B with capex at $4.03B and FCF margin at -15.5% means PPL is heavily reliant on external financing; sustained negative FCF could pressure the dividend and credit profile.
- Valuation premium to peers. P/E of 27.56x is 32.8% above the peer median of 20.76x and P/S of 3.75x is 25% above the 3.00x median; any earnings disappointment could trigger multiple compression.
- Rising leverage. Total debt increased to $19.35B in FY2025 from $16.81B in FY2024, and with $4.03B in annual capex the debt trajectory is upward, raising interest-rate sensitivity.
- Insider selling signal. Over the trailing 24 months insiders net sold 33,044 shares for -$1.18M with zero open-market acquisitions, and the most recent transaction was an EVP sale at $35.11 on 15 Oct.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY25 fundamentals · peer comparison · technicals, 16 Oct · insider trades. Orin's read on PPL; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 6.1% over twelve months, from $37.46 on 27 Oct 2025 to $35.18 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $39.81 on 9 Apr 2026; the last close is 11.6% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 29.4M, on 23 Feb 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All PPL filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $2.4B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.7B | 0.0% |
| State Street | $1.5B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.4B | 0.1% |
| Invesco | $1.0B | 0.1% |
| Wellington Management Group | $776.9M | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $722.0M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $596.1M | 0.0% |
| FMR | $591.1M | 0.0% |
| Franklin Resources | $587.9M | 0.1% |
105 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 304 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$1.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 1 a sale — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about PPL
Orin answers questions about PPL from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 20.7× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — lower than in all 4 of its last 5 fiscal years with a P/E (middle 46.2×); the typical Utilities company on the NYSE is at 18.5×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 20.7×below usual | 46.2× | 18.5× |
| P/S | 2.82×below usual | 4.51× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.6×below usual | 18.0× | — |
| P/B | 1.8×below usual | 2.7× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $39.69 (from $35 to $44) — 13% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$39.69
$35 – $44 · +13% against the last close
- 8 buy or overweight
- 3 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 20.7× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 10 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 20.4×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPLPPL Corporation | $26B | 20.7× | 11.6× | 31.1% | 13.5% | 9% |
| CNPCenterPoint Energy, Inc. | $28B | 24.0× | 12.4× | 53.3% | 11.8% | 10% |
| DUKDuke Energy Corporation | $101B | 19.0× | 11.1× | 60.5% | 15.9% | 10% |
| ESEversource Energy | $27B | 18.6× | 10.2× | 35.2% | 10.4% | 9% |
| ETREntergy Corporation | $52B | 27.4× | 14.5× | 38.9% | 13.5% | 10% |
| EVRGEvergy, Inc. | $20B | 19.0× | 12.0× | 50.0% | 16.7% | 10% |
| LNTAlliant Energy Corporation | $18B | 22.1× | 14.6× | 42.0% | 18.4% | 11% |
| PEGPublic Service Enterprise Group Incorporated | $36B | 18.0× | 13.5× | 85.4% | 16.0% | 12% |
| PORPortland General Electric Company | $5B | 19.5× | 9.4× | 44.4% | 7.4% | 6% |
| WECWEC Energy Group, Inc. | $36B | 21.4× | 14.4× | 62.0% | 16.7% | 12% |
| XELXcel Energy Inc. | $49B | 21.3× | 13.3× | 48.8% | 15.3% | 10% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 20.7× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now20.7×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Utilities companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 18.5× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now18.5×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
Neither version of the cash-flow model gives a usable value.
- Standard: comes out below zero, so it is not shown.
- Levered: comes out below zero, so it is not shown.
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.