Prudential Financial, Inc. PRU
Prudential Financial remains a buy as FY2025 diluted EPS of $10.22 (up 36% from $7.50 in FY2024) and Q2 2026 adjusted operating income growth of 14% YoY demonstrate accelerating earnings power, while total debt was cut from $28.4B to $23.0B over the same period. The stock trades at a 10.96x P/E, a 12.3% discount to the peer median of 12.50x, with the uptrend intact above both the 50-day ($115.90) and 200-day ($107.11) moving averages and RSI at a neutral 55.8.
The principal concern is the 13.7% FY2025 revenue decline, but margin expansion (operating margin improved to 7.64% from 4.54%), deleveraging, and a slightly positive smart money score of 0.0172 as of Q2 2026 support continued accumulation.
What could go wrong
- Revenue decline. FY2025 revenue fell 13.7% to $61.0B from $70.7B in FY2024, raising questions about top-line sustainability even as earnings grew.
- Insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insider net dollar value is -$25.5M despite positive net share count of +377K, with the most recent transaction an EVP sale of 7,652 shares at $125.01 on 2026-08-14.
- Rate sensitivity. Recent news references Treasury yields at 2007-era levels and a potential September rate hike; sharp rate moves can pressure insurance book values and liability valuations.
- MACD bearish crossover. MACD histogram turned negative at -0.35 with the line (2.23) below signal (2.58) as of 2026-08-19, a short-term momentum caution flag.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP fundamentals FY2025 and FY2024; derived_metrics eps_growth_yoy 0.3627 · FMP fundamentals: FY2024 total_debt $28.366B, FY2025 total_debt $22.958B · peer_relative: pe 10.961, peer_median_pe 12.501, pe_vs_median_pct -12.316 · technicals as of 2026-08-19: ma_50 115.903, ma_200 107.1139, rsi_14 55.83. Orin's read on PRU; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All PRU filings| Form | Filed | What it says | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10-Q | 5 Aug | Prudential Financial, Inc. | read |
| 8-K | 4 Aug | Prudential Financial, Inc. | read |
| 8-K | 24 Jul | Prudential Financial, Inc. | read |
| 8-K | 15 Jul | Prudential Financial, Inc. | read |
| 8-K | 4 Jun | Prudential Financial, Inc. | read |
| 8-K | 12 May | Prudential Financial held its 2026 annual meeting on May 12; all eleven director nominees were elected with support ranging from 92.0% to 98.1% of votes cast… | read |
| 13G/A | 8 May | — | on file |
| 13G/A | 8 May | — | on file |
Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.4B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $1.9B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.8B | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.2B | 0.1% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $634.8M | 0.0% of fund |
| Invesco | $552.7M | 0.0% of fund |
94 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 325 Form 4 filings, net −$25.5M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 1 a sale— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about PRU
Orin answers questions about PRU from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 10.5× | — | 21.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.8× | — | — |
| P/S | 0.63× | 0.65× | — |
| P/B | 1.2× | 1.4× | — |
Its P/E sits 40th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.40σ from its own mean).
-8.1%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $6.3B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$105
$87 – $128 · −11% against today's price
- 7 buy or overweight
- 25 hold
- 5 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRUPrudential Financial, Inc. | $41B | 10.5× | 8.8× | 30.8% | 5.9% | 12% |
| AFLAflac Incorporated | $59B | 12.4× | 8.9× | 53.9% | 26.9% | 16% |
| GLGlobe Life Inc. | $13B | 11.1× | 25.0× | 17.0% | 19.6% | 20% |
| METMetLife, Inc. | $63B | 18.5× | 10.1× | 25.6% | 4.6% | 13% |
The median is of the 3 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 14.7% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $156 | $105.90 · +47% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $274 | $105.90 · +159% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.