Orin
PRUNYSE·Insurance - Life

Prudential Financial, Inc. PRU

Market cap $41.2BP/E 10.5× trailingGross margin 30.8%Reports Wed 4 Nov, after the close
$118.60
+1.01 (+0.86%)live 09:30 ET
52-wk $91.89 – $127.72
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Orin's take
0.68conviction · moderate
Refreshed 20 Aug · take v7. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

Prudential Financial remains a buy as FY2025 diluted EPS of $10.22 (up 36% from $7.50 in FY2024) and Q2 2026 adjusted operating income growth of 14% YoY demonstrate accelerating earnings power, while total debt was cut from $28.4B to $23.0B over the same period. The stock trades at a 10.96x P/E, a 12.3% discount to the peer median of 12.50x, with the uptrend intact above both the 50-day ($115.90) and 200-day ($107.11) moving averages and RSI at a neutral 55.8.

The principal concern is the 13.7% FY2025 revenue decline, but margin expansion (operating margin improved to 7.64% from 4.54%), deleveraging, and a slightly positive smart money score of 0.0172 as of Q2 2026 support continued accumulation.

What could go wrong

  • Revenue decline. FY2025 revenue fell 13.7% to $61.0B from $70.7B in FY2024, raising questions about top-line sustainability even as earnings grew.
  • Insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insider net dollar value is -$25.5M despite positive net share count of +377K, with the most recent transaction an EVP sale of 7,652 shares at $125.01 on 2026-08-14.
  • Rate sensitivity. Recent news references Treasury yields at 2007-era levels and a potential September rate hike; sharp rate moves can pressure insurance book values and liability valuations.
  • MACD bearish crossover. MACD histogram turned negative at -0.35 with the line (2.23) below signal (2.58) as of 2026-08-19, a short-term momentum caution flag.

What would change my mind

KBW conference catalyst. CEO fireside chat at KBW Insurance Conference on September 9, 2026 provides refreshed multi-year strategy detail on capital-light operations and cost reductionbullish
Revenue stabilization. Q3 2026 or Q4 2026 revenue returns to growth or declines narrow to low single digits, confirming the FY2025 drop was cyclical not structuralbullish
Rate-driven book value compression. A sustained spike in long-term rates causes reported book value and AUM to decline materially from the $1.6T level cited as of June 30, 2026bearish
Margin reversal. Operating margin reverts below 5% in upcoming quarters, undoing the improvement from 4.54% to 7.64% achieved in FY2025bearish

Where this comes from: FMP fundamentals FY2025 and FY2024; derived_metrics eps_growth_yoy 0.3627 · FMP fundamentals: FY2024 total_debt $28.366B, FY2025 total_debt $22.958B · peer_relative: pe 10.961, peer_median_pe 12.501, pe_vs_median_pct -12.316 · technicals as of 2026-08-19: ma_50 115.903, ma_200 107.1139, rsi_14 55.83. Orin's read on PRU; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Vanguard Capital Management$2.4B0.1% of fund
State Street$1.9B0.1% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$1.8B0.1% of fund
Geode Capital Management$1.2B0.1% of fund
Morgan Stanley$634.8M0.0% of fund
Invesco$552.7M0.0% of fund

94 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 325 Form 4 filings, net −$25.5M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 1 a sale— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

Ask Orin about PRU

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Where it trades

vs its own 5y · Financial Services
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E10.5×21.6×
EV/EBITDA8.8×
P/S0.63×0.65×
P/B1.2×1.4×

Its P/E sits 40th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.40σ from its own mean).

What the price assumes

-8.1%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $6.3B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

37 firms · 2026-09-23
Consensus target

$105

$87$128 · −11% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 7 buy or overweight
  • 25 hold
  • 5 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 12.4× of 3 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
PRUPrudential Financial, Inc.$41B10.5×8.8×30.8%5.9%12%
AFLAflac Incorporated$59B12.4×8.9×53.9%26.9%16%
GLGlobe Life Inc.$13B11.1×25.0×17.0%19.6%20%
METMetLife, Inc.$63B18.5×10.1×25.6%4.6%13%

The median is of the 3 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 14.7% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY14 30.8×FY25 11.0×

What its sector has traded at

Financial Services
FY14 29.6×FY26 23.9×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Discounted cash flow

not recomputed since
ModelFair valueAgainstComputed
Standard DCF$156$105.90 · +47%2026-06-10
Levered DCF$274$105.90 · +159%2026-06-10

The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.

Every estimate on one scale

price $118.60
52-week range$92 – $128
Analyst targets$87 – $128
Standard DCF$156 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $105.90
Levered DCF$274 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $105.90
At own 5y-median P/E (11×)$124
At 5y P/E range (-22–16×)$-251 – $173
At sector P/E (22×)$240

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.