Phillips 66 PSX
Phillips 66's earnings recovery is genuine — FY2025 EPS more than doubled to $10.79 from $4.99 with operating margin expanding to 2.66% — but the stock has run too far too fast, closing at $242.29 with an RSI of 79 and sitting well above its 50-day ($196.78) and 200-day ($165.92) moving averages as of 2026-08-19. Net insider selling over the trailing 24 months (-256,106 shares) and a negative smart money score (-0.24 as of Q2 2026) suggest the easy money has been made, even as BlackRock's new 8.51% stake and record diesel prices support the fundamental case.
With EV/EBITDA at 8.84 trading above the peer median of 7.78, the risk/reward at current levels is unattractive after a roughly 101% one-year surge.
What could go wrong
- Technical overextension. RSI at 79.1 and price 23% above the 50-day MA ($196.78) as of 2026-08-19 leaves the stock vulnerable to a sharp mean-reversion pullback.
- Insider distribution. EVP Refining Harbison sold 52,100 shares at $223.76 on 2026-08-12 after exercising options; 24-month net insider selling of 256,106 shares signals limited insider conviction at these levels.
- Smart money outflow. Smart money score turned negative at -0.24 as of Q2 2026, down from +0.30 in Q1 2026, with fund count declining from 66 to 65.
- Revenue and leverage headwinds. Revenue has declined for four consecutive years to $132.2B in FY2025 while total debt climbed to $22.9B, limiting financial flexibility if refining margins compress.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals · derived_metrics · technicals · technicals. Orin's read on PSX; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All PSX filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $4.4B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $4.4B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $3.8B | 0.2% of fund |
| Elliott Investment Management L.P | $3.3B | 14.4% of fund |
| Wells Fargo & Company/Mn | $2.1B | 0.3% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.9B | 0.1% of fund |
129 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 130 Form 4 filings, net −$7.5B. Of the 50 on hand, 2 were open-market purchases and 19 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about PSX
Orin answers questions about PSX from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 14.5× | 11.9× | 51.1× |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.3× | 7.6× | — |
| P/S | 0.67× | 0.33× | — |
| P/B | 3.3× | 1.7× | — |
Its P/E sits 60th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.02σ from its own mean).
16.3%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $2.7B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$266
$207 – $335 · +3% against today's price
- 20 buy or overweight
- 13 hold
- 2 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSXPhillips 66 | $103B | 14.5× | 9.3× | 9.8% | 4.6% | 24% |
| EOGEOG Resources, Inc. | $76B | 11.0× | 5.6× | 70.2% | 25.7% | 22% |
| KMIKinder Morgan, Inc. | $70B | 20.1× | 12.6× | 54.9% | 19.3% | 11% |
| MPCMarathon Petroleum Corporation | $113B | 13.4× | 8.0× | 11.6% | 5.6% | 49% |
| SLBSLB N.V. | $77B | 24.9× | 12.2× | 16.5% | 8.5% | 12% |
| VLOValero Energy Corporation | $108B | 15.6× | 8.4× | 11.3% | 5.4% | 30% |
The median is of the 5 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 6.6% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $224 | $185.94 · +21% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $170 | $185.94 · −8% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.