Orin
PTCNasdaq·Software - Application

PTC Inc. PTC

Market cap $16.3BP/E 13.5× trailingGross margin 84.1%Reports Wed 4 Nov, after the close
$140.79
+0.39 (+0.28%)live 09:30 ET
52-wk $108.50 – $206.82
Watch
Orin's take
0.72conviction · high
Refreshed 18 Aug · take v7. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

PTC remains a buy at $145.98 following FY2025 (ended 2025-09-30) results showing revenue surging 19.2% to $2.74B, EPS nearly doubling to $6.08 from $3.12, and operating margin expanding from 25.6% to 35.9% alongside $857M in free cash flow and a $560M debt reduction to $1.37B. The stock trades at a P/E of 14.06 and EV/EBITDA of 10.83 — roughly 66.5% and 50.2% discounts to peer medians of 42.00 and 21.76 — while MACD momentum stays positive (histogram +0.92) and price holds above the 50-day MA at $127.82, though it still sits below the 200-day MA at $150.99.

Recent AI-driven product launches across Onshape and Codebeamer reinforce the growth narrative, and smart money has improved from -0.053 in Q3 2024 to near-neutral at -0.0011 as of Q2 2026.

What could go wrong

  • 200-day MA resistance. Price at $145.98 remains below the 200-day MA of $150.99; failure to break through could cap upside and signal a range-bound stock.
  • Insider net selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insider net value is -$28.2M despite net share accumulation of +124,751, suggesting tax-related dispositions on RSU vesting rather than conviction buying.
  • P/S premium to peers. P/S of 5.71 is 170.9% above the peer median of 2.11, indicating the market prices in significant growth expectations on a revenue basis.
  • Smart money neutral. Smart money score of -0.0011 as of Q2 2026 is essentially flat, not confirming institutional conviction despite improving fund count to 61 from 49 in Q3 2024.

What would change my mind

200-day MA breakout. Price closes above $151 on above-average volume, confirming trend reversalbullish
FY2026 Q3 earnings miss. Quarterly revenue or ARR growth decelerates below the FY2025 pace of 19.2%bearish
Smart money turns positive. 13F composite smart money score moves above +0.05 in Q3 2026 filingsbullish

Where this comes from: FMP fundamentals FY2025 and derived_metrics · derived_metrics · peer_relative · technicals as of 2026-08-17. Orin's read on PTC; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Vanguard Capital Management$857.8M0.0% of fund
State Street$733.0M0.0% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$650.9M0.0% of fund
Geode Capital Management$426.7M0.0% of fund
Norges Bank$356.2M0.0% of fund
Invesco$303.9M0.0% of fund

87 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 125 Form 4 filings, net −$28.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 6 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

Ask Orin about PTC

its filings · its transcripts · its numbers

Orin answers questions about PTC from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.

Start 3 free days

Where it trades

vs its own 5y · Technology
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E13.5×39.2×53.3×
EV/EBITDA10.4×27.1×
P/S5.49×8.00×
P/B4.6×6.4×

Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−2.14σ from its own mean).

What the price assumes

7.0%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.9B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

33 firms · 2026-09-23
Consensus target

$163

$130$198 · +16% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 20 buy or overweight
  • 10 hold
  • 3 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 38.1× of 5 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
PTCPTC Inc.$16B13.5×10.4×84.1%41.4%33%
FLEXFlex Ltd.$41B43.4×23.4×9.5%3.3%19%
JBLJabil Inc.$32B38.1×16.4×9.2%2.6%62%
TTDThe Trade Desk, Inc.$6B15.1×6.6×83.0%13.6%16%
TYLTyler Technologies, Inc.$14B43.6×29.7×46.6%13.4%9%
VRSNVeriSign, Inc.$27B31.8×23.3×88.5%49.8%-39%

The median is of the 5 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 64.5% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY14 27.5×FY25 33.2×

What its sector has traded at

Technology
FY14 9.0×FY26 48.0×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Discounted cash flow

not recomputed since
ModelFair valueAgainstComputed
Standard DCF$158$135.80 · +16%2026-06-10
Levered DCF$177$135.80 · +30%2026-06-10

The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.

Every estimate on one scale

price $140.79
52-week range$109 – $207
Analyst targets$130 – $198
Standard DCF$158 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $135.80
Levered DCF$177 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $135.80
At own 5y-median P/E (39×)$406
At 5y P/E range (29–68×)$305 – $709
At sector P/E (53×)$553

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.