PTC Inc. PTC
PTC remains a buy at $145.98 following FY2025 (ended 2025-09-30) results showing revenue surging 19.2% to $2.74B, EPS nearly doubling to $6.08 from $3.12, and operating margin expanding from 25.6% to 35.9% alongside $857M in free cash flow and a $560M debt reduction to $1.37B. The stock trades at a P/E of 14.06 and EV/EBITDA of 10.83 — roughly 66.5% and 50.2% discounts to peer medians of 42.00 and 21.76 — while MACD momentum stays positive (histogram +0.92) and price holds above the 50-day MA at $127.82, though it still sits below the 200-day MA at $150.99.
Recent AI-driven product launches across Onshape and Codebeamer reinforce the growth narrative, and smart money has improved from -0.053 in Q3 2024 to near-neutral at -0.0011 as of Q2 2026.
What could go wrong
- 200-day MA resistance. Price at $145.98 remains below the 200-day MA of $150.99; failure to break through could cap upside and signal a range-bound stock.
- Insider net selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insider net value is -$28.2M despite net share accumulation of +124,751, suggesting tax-related dispositions on RSU vesting rather than conviction buying.
- P/S premium to peers. P/S of 5.71 is 170.9% above the peer median of 2.11, indicating the market prices in significant growth expectations on a revenue basis.
- Smart money neutral. Smart money score of -0.0011 as of Q2 2026 is essentially flat, not confirming institutional conviction despite improving fund count to 61 from 49 in Q3 2024.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP fundamentals FY2025 and derived_metrics · derived_metrics · peer_relative · technicals as of 2026-08-17. Orin's read on PTC; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All PTC filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $857.8M | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $733.0M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $650.9M | 0.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $426.7M | 0.0% of fund |
| Norges Bank | $356.2M | 0.0% of fund |
| Invesco | $303.9M | 0.0% of fund |
87 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 125 Form 4 filings, net −$28.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 6 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about PTC
Orin answers questions about PTC from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 13.5× | 39.2× | 53.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.4× | 27.1× | — |
| P/S | 5.49× | 8.00× | — |
| P/B | 4.6× | 6.4× | — |
Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−2.14σ from its own mean).
7.0%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.9B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$163
$130 – $198 · +16% against today's price
- 20 buy or overweight
- 10 hold
- 3 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PTCPTC Inc. | $16B | 13.5× | 10.4× | 84.1% | 41.4% | 33% |
| FLEXFlex Ltd. | $41B | 43.4× | 23.4× | 9.5% | 3.3% | 19% |
| JBLJabil Inc. | $32B | 38.1× | 16.4× | 9.2% | 2.6% | 62% |
| TTDThe Trade Desk, Inc. | $6B | 15.1× | 6.6× | 83.0% | 13.6% | 16% |
| TYLTyler Technologies, Inc. | $14B | 43.6× | 29.7× | 46.6% | 13.4% | 9% |
| VRSNVeriSign, Inc. | $27B | 31.8× | 23.3× | 88.5% | 49.8% | -39% |
The median is of the 5 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 64.5% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $158 | $135.80 · +16% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $177 | $135.80 · +30% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.