PTC Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
PTC has agreed to be acquired by Schneider Electric for $205.00 per share in cash, with the stock trading at $194.45 as of October 9, 2026 — a modest gap to the deal price that already reflects most of the acquisition premium after a 33.5% single-day surge.
FY2025 fundamentals (ended September 30, 2025) remain strong with revenue of $2.74B at 19.2% YoY growth, a 35.9% operating margin, and $857M in free cash flow, yet the most recent completed quarter (Q3 FY2026, ended June 30, 2026) showed revenue declining 6.8% YoY to $600M. With RSI at 81 and multiple law firms investigating whether the $205.00 price is fair, the remaining upside is limited while deal-break risk is non-trivial — hold existing positions for deal completion but the risk/reward does not justify new exposure.
What could go wrong
- Deal-break risk. Regulatory rejection or shareholder litigation could block the Schneider Electric transaction, sending shares back toward pre-announcement levels near the $140s where 50-day and 200-day moving averages sit.
- Law firm investigations. At least three firms (Halper Sadeh, Monteverde & Associates, Kahn Swick & Foti) are investigating the adequacy of the $205.00 per share consideration and process, creating noise and potential delays.
- Overbought technicals. RSI at 81 as of October 9, 2026 indicates extreme overbought conditions, limiting near-term upside potential and increasing vulnerability to any negative deal headlines.
- Deteriorating quarterly fundamentals. Q3 FY2026 revenue fell 6.8% YoY to $600M, and if the deal breaks, the market would refocus on this weakening organic growth trajectory.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: news, 6 Oct · technicals, 9 Oct · fundamentals, year to 30 Sep 2025 · results, quarter to 30 Jun. Orin's read on PTC; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 4.3% over twelve months, from $203.28 on 27 Oct 2025 to $194.62 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $203.28 on 27 Oct 2025; the last close is 4.3% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 29.6M, on 5 Oct 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All PTC filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $1.3B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $857.8M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $733.0M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $650.9M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $426.7M | 0.0% |
| Norges Bank | $356.2M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $303.9M | 0.0% |
| Citadel Advisors | $258.4M | 0.0% |
| Standard Investments | $205.9M | 10.7% |
| Morgan Stanley | $173.8M | 0.0% |
89 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 128 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$12.8M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 6 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about PTC
Orin answers questions about PTC from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 21.9× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close) — lower than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 39.2×); the typical Technology company on the NASDAQ is at 46.1×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 21.9×below usual | 39.2× | 46.1× |
| P/S | 7.73×near usual | 8.00× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.6×below usual | 27.1× | — |
| P/B | below zero | 6.4× | — |
- P/B: below zero — it owes more than it owns on its books.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $200 (from $130 to $306) — 3% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$200
$130 – $306 · +3% against the last close
- 1 buy or overweight
- 11 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 21.9× its last 12 months of profit. Only 1 of the 2 companies it is compared to made a profit (ADSK 31.2×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PTCPTC Inc. | $21B | 21.9× | 14.6× | 82.8% | 37.8% | n/m |
| ADSKAutodesk, Inc. | $51B | 31.2× | 21.8× | 91.2% | 21.1% | 53% |
| TRMBTrimble Inc. | $13B | lost money | 50.4× | 68.9% | −4.1% | −3% |
- TRMB: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- PTC: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 21.9× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now21.9×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Technology companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 46.1× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now46.1×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $133 a share — 31% below the $194.29 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $133 | 31% below $194.29 |
| Levered | $149 | 23% below $194.29 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.