PWRNYSE·Engineering & Construction

Quanta Services, Inc. PWR

Market cap $95.1BP/E 71.8× trailingGross margin 14.4%Reports Thu 29 Oct, before the open

$632.25

−2.65 (−0.42%)live 09:30 ET

52-wk $389.70 – $788.75

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Orin's take

0.62conviction · moderate

Refreshed 17 Aug · take v6. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

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Quanta Services remains a hold as the fundamental growth story is exceptional — revenue has compounded from $13.0B in 2021 to $28.4B in 2025 with FCF expanding over 8x to $1.62B, and management's raised 2026 FCF outlook to $2–$2.5B signals continued momentum in AI-driven power infrastructure demand. However, at 77.6x trailing earnings versus a peer median of 28.8x (a 170% premium) and 36.0x EV/EBITDA versus 18.3x, the stock demands years of flawless execution with minimal margin for error.

Persistent net insider selling of $176.9M over 24 months, a 43% YoY jump in total debt to $6.4B, and a declining smart money score from 0.43 to 0.13 temper enthusiasm despite the improving technical picture (price back above the 50-day MA at $672.82 with a bullish MACD crossover).

What could go wrong

Valuation compression. At 77.6x PE and 36.0x EV/EBITDA — 170% and 96% above peer medians respectively — any deceleration in revenue growth or margin guidance could trigger a sharp multiple contraction.
Leverage acceleration. Total debt surged 43% YoY from $4.48B in 2024 to $6.42B in 2025, outpacing equity growth; rising rates or project cost overruns could pressure coverage.
Insider distribution. Net insider selling of $176.9M and 107,115 net shares disposed over 24 months with no cluster buying suggests insiders view current levels as attractive exit points.
Smart money fading. Smart money score declined from 0.4268 in Q1 2026 to 0.1319 in Q2 2026 with fund count dropping from 62 to 58, indicating institutional conviction is waning at these levels.

What would change my mind

FCF delivery above guidance. 2026 FCF exceeds the $2.5B high end of raised outlook, demonstrating cash conversion improvement and justifying the premium multiplebullish

Backlog deceleration. Quarterly backlog additions slow meaningfully from the record $53.4B level, signaling that AI infrastructure demand is being satisfied faster than new projects emergebearish

PE re-rating toward peer median. Stock fails to grow into its 77.6x PE and multiple compresses toward the 28.8x peer median on any earnings miss or guidance cutbearish

Where this comes from: FMP fundamentals, fiscal years 2021–2025 · FMP fundamentals, fiscal years 2021–2025 · peer_relative composite · peer_relative composite. Orin's read on PWR; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

On file

All PWR filings

Form	Filed	What it says	Read
8-K	6 Aug	Quanta Services, Inc. issued $2.0 billion in aggregate principal amount of senior unsecured notes on August 6, 2026. This includes $500 million of 4.850% Senior Notes due 2029…	read
8-K	4 Aug	Quanta Services, Inc. entered into an underwriting agreement on August 3, 2026, to issue and sell $500,000,000 of 4.850% Senior Notes due 2029, $750,000,000 of 5.300% Senior Notes…	read
10-Q	30 Jul	Quanta Services reported $9.56 billion in revenue for the three months ended June 30, 2026, a 41.1% increase year-over-year.	read
8-K	30 Jul	Quanta Services, Inc. announced its fiscal quarter ended June 30, 2026, results on July 30, 2026, via press release furnished as Exhibit 99.1. The company also posted its Second…	read
8-K	27 May	Quanta Services, Inc. announced a new $1.0 billion stock repurchase program effective May 21, 2026. The program allows for repurchases of outstanding common stock through…	read
13G	30 Apr	—	on file
10-Q	30 Apr	Quanta Services reported first-quarter 2026 revenue of $7.87 billion, up 26.3% year-over-year and 6.5% sequentially, driven by a $1.52 billion increase in the Electric…	read
8-K	30 Apr	Quanta Services filed an 8-K on April 30, 2026, solely to furnish its first-quarter 2026 earnings press release (Exhibit 99.1) and to announce that accompanying operational…	read

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow

Filer	Position	Of fund
Vanguard Capital Management	$7.1B	0.2% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management	$5.0B	0.2% of fund
State Street	$4.7B	0.1% of fund
Jpmorgan Chase &	$3.8B	0.2% of fund
Peconic Partners	$3.4B	42.3% of fund
Fmr	$2.5B	0.1% of fund

132 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 119 Form 4 filings, net −$176.9M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 27 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

vs its own 5y · Industrials

Metric	Now	Own median	Sector
P/E	71.8×	42.1×	44.5×
EV/EBITDA	33.5×	19.5×	—
P/S	2.91×	1.50×	—
P/B	9.9×	5.0×	—

Its P/E sits above all 5 of the last 5 years (+2.60σ from its own mean).

What the price assumes

22.5%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.6B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

36 firms · 2026-09-23

Consensus target

$789

$650 – $940 · +25% against today's price

How they rate it

26 buy or overweight
10 hold
0 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 27.1× of 8 peers

Company	Market cap	P/E	EV/EBITDA	Gross	Net	ROE
PWRQuanta Services, Inc.	$95B	71.8×	33.5×	14.4%	4.1%	15%
CSXCSX Corporation	$87B	27.3×	15.8×	54.9%	22.2%	24%
FDXFedEx Corporation	$69B	15.9×	9.3×	22.9%	4.7%	15%
ITWIllinois Tool Works Inc.	$79B	24.7×	18.9×	44.2%	19.4%	102%
JCIJohnson Controls International plc	$88B	25.3×	27.0×	36.7%	14.3%	27%
NSCNorfolk Southern Corporation	$71B	26.9×	15.9×	53.7%	21.0%	17%
RSGRepublic Services, Inc.	$66B	30.2×	14.2×	39.1%	12.9%	18%
TDGTransDigm Group Incorporated	$62B	33.5×	18.6×	59.6%	21.3%	-21%
VRTVertiv Holdings Co	$96B	55.0×	38.1×	37.5%	15.1%	42%

The median is of the 8 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 165.2% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year

FY14 21.0×FY25 61.4×

What its sector has traded at

Industrials

FY14 173.5×FY26 32.7×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Discounted cash flow

not recomputed since

Model	Fair value	Against	Computed
Standard DCF	$155	$650.89 · −76%	2026-06-10
Levered DCF	$358	$650.89 · −45%	2026-06-10

The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.

Every estimate on one scale

price $632.25

52-week range$390 – $789

Analyst targets$650 – $940

Standard DCF$155 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $650.89

Levered DCF$358 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $650.89

At own 5y-median P/E (42×)$372

At 5y P/E range (33–62×)$294 – $550

At sector P/E (45×)$394

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.