Orin
QBTSNYSE·Computer Hardware

D-Wave Quantum Inc. QBTS

Market cap $6.2BP/E no earnings to divide byGross margin 64.2%Reports Thu 5 Nov, before the open
$16.81
−0.75 (−4.27%)Wed close 16:00 ET
52-wk $12.75 – $46.75
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Orin's take
0.72conviction · high
Refreshed 25 Aug · take v5. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

D-Wave Quantum posted 178.5% revenue growth to $24.587M in FY2025 with gross margin expanding to 82.59%, but the $355.062M net loss and $75.844M free cash flow burn confirm the business remains deeply unprofitable and cash-consuming. At 572x sales versus a peer median near 17x, the valuation prices in perfection, yet insiders have net sold 44.385M shares worth $338.653M over 24 months with zero cluster buys, and the stock trades below both its 50-day ($20.44) and 200-day ($21.90) moving averages as of August 25, 2026.

With recent reporting indicating 2026 sales growth has decelerated by more than half, the risk-reward remains unfavorable and positions should be exited.

What could go wrong

  • Quantum commercialization inflection. A landmark enterprise or government contract could rapidly accelerate revenue and validate the technology, potentially justifying a portion of the premium valuation.
  • Capital raise overhang. With $75.844M in annual free cash flow burn and only $43.457M in total debt, additional equity issuance is likely, diluting existing shareholders at already-depressed prices.
  • Speculative momentum reversal. Quantum computing is a thematic magnet for retail and momentum flows; a sector-wide sentiment surge could lift QBTS independent of fundamentals, as seen in the August 21 rally.
  • Insider selling interpretation. The 24-month net disposition of 44.385M shares may partly reflect option exercises and automatic sales rather than discretionary bearishness, though the absence of any cluster buy is notable.

What would change my mind

Q3 2026 revenue trajectory. If quarterly revenue growth reaccelerates above the FY2025 pace of 178.5% YoY, the growth narrative strengthens; if it continues decelerating as recent news suggests, the valuation thesis breaks further.bullish
Insider accumulation signal. A cluster buy or open-market purchase by the CEO or CFO would materially shift the insider signal from relentless selling to constructive ownership.bullish
Dilutive capital raise. An equity offering or convertible issuance to fund the ongoing $75.844M annual FCF burn would confirm dilution risk and pressure the stock toward the lower end of its 52-week range.bearish
Sustained technical breakdown. A close below the 52-week low of $12.75 on heavy volume would signal loss of speculative support and potential for further downside.bearish

Where this comes from: FMP FY2025 & FY2024 fundamentals; derived_metrics FY2025 revenue_growth_yoy 1.7854 · derived_metrics FY2025 & FY2024 gross_margin · FMP FY2025 fundamentals · peer_relative composite (QBTS ps 572.26, peer_median_ps 17.45). Orin's read on QBTS; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$528.3M0.0% of fund
Vanguard Capital Management$382.4M0.0% of fund
Geode Capital Management$222.4M0.0% of fund
State Street$216.6M0.0% of fund
Clear Street Group$148.9M0.4% of fund
Norges Bank$107.4M0.0% of fund

62 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 205 Form 4 filings, net −$338.8M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 15 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

· Technology
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/S496.88×
P/B5.8×

What Wall Street published

13 firms · 2026-09-23
Consensus target

$34

$22$43 · +105% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 13 buy or overweight
  • 0 hold
  • 0 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 47.1× of 3 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
QBTSD-Wave Quantum Inc.$6B64.2%-2001.6%-27%
IONQIonQ, Inc.$16B8.1×36.3%-573.6%-39%
JKHYJack Henry & Associates, Inc.$11B21.3×12.3×43.6%19.8%23%
MTSIMACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc.$21B86.2×61.2×56.6%20.7%17%
RGTIRigetti Computing, Inc.$5B-2.7%-1787.4%-47%
SWKSSkyworks Solutions, Inc.$14B47.1×17.2×40.7%7.2%5%

The median is of the 3 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year

What its sector has traded at

Technology
FY14 9.0×FY26 48.0×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Every estimate on one scale

price $16.81
52-week range$13 – $47
Analyst targets$22 – $43

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.