D-Wave Quantum Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
D-Wave Quantum's FY2025 revenue surge to $24.587M (178.5% YoY) has decisively stalled, with Q1 2026 revenue collapsing 80.9% YoY to $2.858M and Q2 2026 roughly flat at $3.076M, exposing the growth narrative as unsustainable.
Securities fraud class action lawsuits filed October 16–17, 2026 allege the company materially overstated its business and financial prospects, compounding the risk from a $355.062M FY2025 net loss and $75.844M free cash flow burn. At 356.91x sales versus a peer median of 146.54x, with the stock at $11.78 trading well below both its 50-day ($17.163) and 200-day ($20.164) moving averages as of October 16, 2026, and insiders net selling 45.72M shares over 24 months, the risk-reward profile remains unfavorable.
What could go wrong
- Quantum computing catalyst. A breakthrough commercial deployment or major government contract could reignite the growth narrative and justify a premium valuation despite current losses.
- Class action exposure. The securities fraud lawsuits filed October 16–17, 2026 covering a class period of February 26–August 25, 2026 could lead to settlements, regulatory scrutiny, or damaging discovery.
- Capital raise/dilution. With $75.844M in FY2025 free cash flow burn and $43.457M total debt, the company may need to raise additional capital, diluting existing shareholders.
- Technical oversold bounce. RSI at 26.41 as of October 16, 2026 suggests the stock is deeply oversold; a short-term technical rebound could temporarily improve sentiment.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY25 fundamentals · Q1–Q2 FY26 results · news · peer comparison. Orin's read on QBTS; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 65.4% over twelve months, from $35.04 on 27 Oct 2025 to $12.13 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $37.06 on 31 Oct 2025; the last close is 67.3% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 141.7M, on 22 May 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (an 8-K reports a major event).
- Rose flags: large share sales by the company's own officers and directors, from the Form 4 each one files after trading.
On file
All QBTS filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $795.2M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $528.3M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $382.4M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $222.4M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $216.6M | 0.0% |
| Clear Street Group | $148.9M | 0.4% |
| Norges Bank | $107.4M | 0.0% |
| Bank of America | $104.2M | 0.0% |
| Northern Trust | $80.8M | 0.0% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $78.8M | 0.0% |
65 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 206 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$331.1M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 14 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about QBTS
Orin answers questions about QBTS from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E (Tue 27 Oct close). It is priced at 368× its yearly sales. It has too few years of its own for a usual level.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | lost money | — | 39.5× |
| P/S | 368× | — | — |
| EV/EBITDA | not meaningful | — | — |
| P/B | 4.2× | — | — |
- D-Wave listed on 5 Aug 2022 by merging with a blank-cheque company (a SPAC). Earlier figures are not shown.
- So it has no full fiscal year of its own on file yet — no usual level.
- P/E: lost money — no P/E over the last 12 months.
- EV/EBITDA: not meaningful — over the last 12 months the business itself lost money before depreciation (operating income plus depreciation is below zero); a profit from one-off gains does not count.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $36.14 (from $30 to $43) — 198% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$36.14
$30 – $43 · +198% against the last close
- 11 buy or overweight
- 0 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E. Only 1 of the 5 companies it is compared to made a profit (IONQ 37.2×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QBTSD-Wave Quantum Inc. | $5B | lost money | n/m | 64.2% | below −1,000% | −27% |
| INFQInfleqtion Inc | $2B | lost money | n/m | 15.3% | −564.1% | n/m |
| IONQIonQ, Inc. | $11B | 37.2× | n/m | 28.5% | 53.9% | 5% |
| QNTQuantinuum Inc. Class A Common Stock | $8B | lost money | — | 20.3% | below −1,000% | −59% |
| QUBTQuantum Computing, Inc. | $2B | lost money | n/m | −18.9% | −152.5% | −1% |
| RGTIRigetti Computing, Inc. | $4B | lost money | n/m | −2.7% | below −1,000% | −47% |
- INFQ, QNT, QUBT, RGTI: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- INFQ: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- QBTS, INFQ, IONQ, QUBT, RGTI: EV/EBITDA is not meaningful (n/m) — its cash exceeds its market value plus debt, or the business lost money before depreciation.
- QBTS: net margin below −1,000% — it lost about $20 for each $1 of sales.
- QNT: net margin below −1,000% — it lost about $14 for each $1 of sales.
- RGTI: net margin below −1,000% — it lost about $18 for each $1 of sales.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
It has lost money and has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so it has no P/E history.
- Nowlost money
- Now: no P/E — it lost money over the last 12 months.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Technology companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 39.5× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now39.5×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
It spends more cash than it brings in, so a cash-flow model gives no usable value (both versions come out below zero).
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.