QUALCOMM Incorporated
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Qualcomm trades at a steep discount to semiconductor peers — 20.98x P/E versus a peer median of 46.28x and 15.15x EV/EBITDA versus 45.36x — but the fundamental momentum is deteriorating, with Q3 FY2026 revenue of $9.95B declining 4.0% YoY following a 3.5% YoY drop in Q2 FY2026, reversing the 13.7% FY2025 growth streak.
FY2025 net income fell 45.4% to $5.54B despite the revenue advance, and the stock has already rallied from $166.61 to $184.87, now sitting above both its 50-day MA of $171.45 and 200-day MA of $169.26, limiting near-term upside. The Apple patent renewal and diversification into automotive and cloud AI are genuine positives, but CEO Cristiano Amon sold shares at $195 and $200 in late September 2026, and smart money scores have faded from 0.04 in Q4 2025 to 0.01 as of the quarter ended 30 Jun. The valuation discount is real, but declining revenue, persistent insider net selling of $71.7M over 24 months, and fading institutional conviction argue for patience rather than accumulation at current levels.
What could go wrong
- Revenue deceleration persists. Q2 and Q3 FY2026 revenue declined 3.5% and 4.0% YoY respectively, reversing the 13.7% FY2025 growth; if this trend continues into Q4 FY2026, the diversification narrative weakens.
- Margin compression. FY2025 net margin fell to 12.5% from 26.0% in FY2024 despite revenue growth of 13.7%, suggesting cost pressures or mix shifts are eroding profitability.
- Insider selling acceleration. CEO Amon sold shares at $195 and $200 in September 2026, and 24-month net insider selling totals $71.7M, signaling limited confidence at elevated prices.
- Smart money exodus. Smart money score declined from 0.04 in Q4 2025 to 0.01 as of 30 Jun, with fund count relatively flat at 69, indicating waning institutional enthusiasm.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer comparison · quarterly results · fundamentals · insider trades. Orin's read on QCOM; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 1.9% over twelve months, from $187.68 on 27 Oct 2025 to $184.17 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $251.02 on 29 May 2026; the last close is 26.6% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 81.8M, on 27 Oct 2025).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All QCOM filings| Form | Filed | What it says | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8-K | 8 Sep | — | on file |
| 13G | 7 Aug | — | on file |
| 8-K | 31 Jul | QUALCOMM Incorporated filed a prospectus supplement on July 31, 2026, covering the resale of 17,826,566 shares of common stock. | read |
| 10-Q | 29 Jul | Total revenues for the three months ended June 28, 2026, were $9.947 billion, a decrease of 4% year-over-year. | read |
| 8-K | 29 Jul | Qualcomm Incorporated reported third quarter fiscal 2026 revenues of $9.9 billion, a 4% decrease year-over-year. | read |
| 8-K | 24 Jun | QUALCOMM Incorporated expects to issue up to 19.2 million shares of common stock to acquire Modular Inc. | read |
| 13G/A | 12 May | — | on file |
| 13G | 30 Apr | — | on file |
Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $17.6B | 0.3% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $12.7B | 0.3% |
| State Street | $9.8B | 0.3% |
| Invesco | $6.7B | 0.5% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $6.3B | 0.3% |
| Geode Capital Management | $5.5B | 0.3% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $4.1B | 0.5% |
| Morgan Stanley | $3.2B | 0.2% |
| Norges Bank | $3.0B | 0.3% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $2.3B | 0.2% |
166 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 387 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$49.1M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 21 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about QCOM
Orin answers questions about QCOM from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 12.2× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close) — higher than in 1 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 17.2×); the typical Technology company on the NASDAQ is at 46.1×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 12.2×below usual | 17.2× | 46.1× |
| P/S | 3.88×below usual | 4.09× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.2×above usual | 12.7× | — |
| P/B | 5.5×below usual | 7.2× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $208 (from $159 to $400) — 13% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$208
$159 – $400 · +13% against the last close
- 8 buy or overweight
- 12 hold
- 3 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 12.2× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 7 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 42.5×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QCOMQUALCOMM Incorporated | $167B | 12.2× | 15.2× | 53.1% | 31.6% | 50% |
| AVGOBroadcom Inc. | $1.63T | 42.5× | 31.9× | 68.8% | 42.9% | 44% |
| MRVLMarvell Technology, Inc. | $213B | 79.9× | 45.1× | 51.4% | 27.9% | 16% |
| MTSIMACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. | $15B | 43.1× | 32.5× | 58.0% | 25.3% | 22% |
| MXLMaxLinear, Inc. | $7B | lost money | 207× | 58.0% | −4.4% | −6% |
| NXPINXP Semiconductors N.V. | $64B | 19.8× | 14.2× | 56.3% | 23.4% | 29% |
| QRVOQorvo, Inc. | $10B | 26.2× | 13.2× | 48.2% | 11.0% | 11% |
| SMTCSemtech Corporation | $13B | 87.1× | 104× | 52.0% | 13.1% | 25% |
| TXNTexas Instruments Incorporated | $282B | 40.0× | 26.6× | 60.2% | 34.3% | 41% |
- MXL: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 12.2× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now12.2×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Technology companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 46.1× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now46.1×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $129 a share — 29% below the $181.23 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $129 | 29% below $181.23 |
| Levered | $139 | 23% below $181.23 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.