QUALCOMM Incorporated QCOM
Qualcomm screens cheap at 19.0x P/E and 13.8x EV/EBITDA — roughly 50% and 65% below the semiconductor peer median — but the fundamental momentum is deteriorating, with Q3 FY2026 revenue of $9.95B declining 4.0% YoY following a 3.5% YoY drop in Q2 FY2026, reversing the 13.7% FY2025 growth streak. The stock has already rallied 15% in the past month to $166.61, sitting just below its 50-day MA of $171.29 and near its 200-day MA of $167.87, limiting near-term upside while smart money scores have faded from 0.0397 in Q4 2025 to 0.0127 as of the quarter ended 2026-06-30.
The MediaTek–Nvidia $3.5B partnership announced September 1 intensifies competitive pressure in AI-enabled mobile and PC chips just as Qualcomm's own AI PC narrative faces a 'smartphone reality check.' The valuation discount is real, but declining revenue, insider net selling of $67.3M over 24 months, and a fading institutional conviction trend argue for patience rather than accumulation at current levels.
What could go wrong
- Revenue deceleration persists. Q3 FY2026 revenue fell 4.0% YoY to $9.95B and Q2 FY2026 fell 3.5% YoY to $10.6B, breaking the FY2025 growth of 13.7%; if this continues into Q4 FY2026, the valuation case weakens further.
- Competitive displacement by MediaTek-Nvidia. Nvidia's $3.5B convertible bond investment in MediaTek, announced 2026-09-01, targets AI chips for PCs and cars — directly overlapping Qualcomm's Snapdragon expansion areas.
- Smart money and insider signals weakening. Smart money score declined from 0.0397 (Q4 2025) to 0.0127 (Q2 2026); insiders net sold $67.3M of stock over the trailing 24 months with 231 dispositions vs 109 acquisitions.
- Earnings quality volatility. FY2025 net income fell 45.4% to $5.5B driven by a Q4 FY2025 net loss of $3.12B, while Q2 FY2026 net income spiked to $7.37B — making trend assessment difficult and raising questions about one-time items.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer_relative (as of latest available data) · quarterly_results, fiscal year 2026 Q3 and Q2 · fundamentals and derived_metrics, fiscal year 2025 · technicals, as of 2026-09-01. Orin's read on QCOM; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All QCOM filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $12.7B | 0.3% of fund |
| State Street | $9.8B | 0.3% of fund |
| Invesco | $6.7B | 0.5% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $6.3B | 0.3% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $5.5B | 0.3% of fund |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $4.1B | 0.5% of fund |
164 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 350 Form 4 filings, net −$69.7M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 37 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about QCOM
Orin answers questions about QCOM from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 22.5× | 17.2× | 53.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.2× | 13.2× | — |
| P/S | 4.70× | 4.09× | — |
| P/B | 7.5× | 7.2× | — |
Its P/E sits 80th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.47σ from its own mean).
4.8%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $12.8B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$204
$120 – $400 · +4% against today's price
- 30 buy or overweight
- 34 hold
- 5 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QCOMQUALCOMM Incorporated | $207B | 22.5× | 16.2× | 54.2% | 21.0% | 37% |
| AMATApplied Materials, Inc. | $377B | 40.6× | 33.1× | 49.4% | 30.1% | 40% |
| ANETArista Networks, Inc. | $256B | 63.4× | 49.7× | 63.0% | 38.4% | 31% |
| ARMArm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares | $355B | 342.8× | 256.8× | 95.3% | 20.2% | 13% |
| INTCIntel Corporation | $618B | — | 178.7× | 38.9% | -19.8% | -11% |
| INTUIntuit Inc. | $78B | 17.4× | 11.4× | 80.9% | 21.3% | 23% |
| KLACKLA Corporation | $245B | 51.0× | 43.4× | 61.3% | 35.6% | 85% |
| LRCXLam Research Corporation | $384B | 53.1× | 44.0× | 50.5% | 31.3% | 67% |
| TXNTexas Instruments Incorporated | $249B | 41.2× | 28.5× | 58.3% | 31.1% | 36% |
| UBERUber Technologies, Inc. | $141B | 15.0× | 18.9× | 42.3% | 17.3% | 36% |
The median is of the 8 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 51.3% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $139 | $190.30 · −27% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $154 | $190.30 · −19% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.