Quantinuum Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Quantinuum's Q2 2026 results (quarter ended 30 Jun) revealed a dramatic deterioration: a single-quarter operating loss of -$555M exceeded the entire FY2025 operating loss of -$530M, and gross profit turned negative at -$2.3M.
Despite a world-record quantum error-correction milestone on its Helios system announced October 19, 2026, the company generated only $8.0M in Q2 2026 revenue while trading at a price-to-sales multiple of 694.9x — roughly 370% above the peer median of 147.9x. With FY2025 free cash flow of -$235.4M against $30.9M in revenue and a smart money score of just 0.02 as of the quarter ended 30 Jun, the fundamental trajectory remains deeply unfavorable despite the genuine technical breakthrough.
What could go wrong
- Cash burn trajectory. FY2025 free cash flow was -$235.4M against only $30.9M in revenue, and Q2 2026 operating loss of -$555M alone exceeded the full FY2025 operating loss of -$530M, raising dilution or financing risk.
- Revenue volatility and scale. Q1 2026 revenue fell 72.6% YoY to $5.2M from $19.1M, and Q2 2026 revenue of $8.0M grew only 2.8% YoY, indicating highly lumpy and sub-scale commercial traction.
- Gross margin collapse. Q2 2026 gross profit turned negative at -$2.3M, a sharp reversal from FY2025's gross margin of 62.2%, suggesting cost structure or pricing pressure.
- Extended commercialization timeline. Management targets fault-tolerant quantum computing by 2029, leaving multiple years of losses before potential commercial viability.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q2 2026 results and fundamentals · Q2 2026 results · peer comparison · FY25 fundamentals. Orin's read on QNT; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 33.4% since its first close on file, from $60.38 on 4 Jun 2026 to $40.21 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $83.17 on 6 Jul 2026; the last close is 51.7% below it.
- It listed on 4 Jun 2026, so the line starts there.
- The 50-day average starts on 14 Aug 2026, once there were 50 trading days to average.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 29.6M, on 4 Jun 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All QNT filings| Form | Filed | What it says | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13G | 6 Oct | — | on file |
| 8-K | 8 Sep | — | on file |
| 13G | 13 Aug | — | on file |
| 10-Q | 13 Aug | Revenue for the three months ended June 30, 2026, was $7.998 million, a 279% increase year-over-year from $2.108 million. | read |
| 13G | 12 Aug | — | on file |
| 8-K | 11 Aug | Quantinuum reported Q2 2026 revenue of $8 million, a 279% year-over-year increase, and raised its FY2026 revenue outlook to $28-$32 million. | read |
| 13G | 17 Jul | — | on file |
| 13G | 6 Jul | — | on file |
Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Capital World Investors | $372.7M | 0.0% |
| Citadel Advisors | $188.0M | 0.0% |
| BlackRock | $184.7M | 0.0% |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $143.4M | 0.0% |
| Wellington Management Group | $92.4M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $84.1M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $77.6M | 0.0% |
| Balyasny Asset Management | $67.2M | 0.1% |
| AllianceBernstein | $64.5M | 0.0% |
| FMR | $52.5M | 0.0% |
56 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Ask Orin about QNT
Orin answers questions about QNT from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E (Thu 5 Nov close). It is priced at 435× its yearly sales. It has too few years of its own for a usual level.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | lost money | — | 46.1× |
| P/S | 435× | — | — |
| P/B | 2.3× | — | — |
- Listed on 4 Jun 2026 — earlier years are not shown.
- So it has no full fiscal year of its own on file yet — no usual level.
- P/E: lost money — no P/E over the last 12 months.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $90.33 (from $62 to $100) — 125% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$90.33
$62 – $100 · +125% against the last close
- 5 buy or overweight
- 0 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E. Only 1 of the 5 companies it is compared to made a profit (IONQ 37.2×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QNTQuantinuum Inc. Class A Common Stock | $8B | lost money | — | 20.3% | below −1,000% | −59% |
| INFQInfleqtion Inc | $2B | lost money | n/m | 15.3% | −564.1% | n/m |
| IONQIonQ, Inc. | $11B | 37.2× | n/m | 28.5% | 53.9% | 5% |
| QBTSD-Wave Quantum Inc. | $5B | lost money | n/m | 64.2% | below −1,000% | −27% |
| QUBTQuantum Computing, Inc. | $2B | lost money | n/m | −18.9% | −152.5% | −1% |
| RGTIRigetti Computing, Inc. | $4B | lost money | n/m | −2.7% | below −1,000% | −47% |
- INFQ, QBTS, QUBT, RGTI: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- INFQ: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- INFQ, IONQ, QBTS, QUBT, RGTI: EV/EBITDA is not meaningful (n/m) — its cash exceeds its market value plus debt, or the business lost money before depreciation.
- QNT: net margin below −1,000% — it lost about $14 for each $1 of sales.
- QBTS: net margin below −1,000% — it lost about $20 for each $1 of sales.
- RGTI: net margin below −1,000% — it lost about $18 for each $1 of sales.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
It has lost money and has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so it has no P/E history.
- Nowlost money
- Now: no P/E — it lost money over the last 12 months.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Technology companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 46.1× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now46.1×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $12 a share — 69% below the $39.52 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $12 | 69% below $39.52 |
- Levered: comes out below zero, so it is not shown.
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.