RB Global, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
RB Global remains a hold at $80.40, trading 8% below its 50-day MA of $87.38 and 21% below its 200-day MA of $101.60, with RSI at 35.09 indicating oversold conditions while a positive MACD histogram hints at near-term stabilization.
Q2 2026 revenue grew 11.1% YoY to $1.32B, the company doubled its buyback to $1 billion on September 15, 2026, and it has beaten EPS estimates for eight consecutive quarters, but FY2025 gross margin compressed to 35.8% from 46.8% in FY2024 and Q2 2026 gross profit of $225.7M on $1.32B revenue suggests the post-IAA margin mix has not stabilized. At 34.2x trailing earnings — a 57% premium to the peer median of 21.8x — the stock is not cheap enough to upgrade to buy despite improving top-line momentum and shareholder returns.
What could go wrong
- Gross margin compression. FY2025 gross margin fell to 35.8% from 46.8% in FY2024; Q2 2026 gross profit of $225.7M on $1.32B revenue implies the post-IAA business mix remains structurally lower-margin.
- Valuation premium. At 34.2x P/E versus peer median of 21.8x (57% premium), there is limited downside protection if revenue growth decelerates from the current ~11% quarterly pace.
- Rising leverage. Total debt increased to $5.50B in FY2025 from $4.56B in FY2024, raising interest-rate sensitivity across the acquisition-driven platform.
- Persistent insider selling. Over 24 months insiders net disposed $12.9M in shares with no cluster buying; recent transactions are trivial dividend-equivalent rights acquisitions, not meaningful open-market purchases.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: technicals, 7 Oct · Q2 2026 results · FY25 fundamentals · peer comparison. Orin's read on RBA; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 16.2% over twelve months, from $101.43 on 27 Oct 2025 to $85.02 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $119.14 on 10 Feb 2026; the last close is 28.6% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 7.0M, on 5 Aug 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All RBA filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $1.8B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.6B | 0.0% |
| Massachusetts Financial Services | $1.4B | 0.4% |
| EdgePoint Investment Group | $1.1B | 8.4% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $987.2M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $764.6M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $614.1M | 0.0% |
| Royal Bank of Canada | $581.0M | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Fiduciary Trust | $329.0M | 0.1% |
| FMR | $309.2M | 0.0% |
77 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 557 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$12.9M. Of the 50 on hand, 3 were open-market purchases and 1 a sale — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about RBA
Orin answers questions about RBA from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 36.2× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 1 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 44.4×); the typical Industrials company on the NYSE is at 33.7×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 36.2×below usual | 44.4× | 33.7× |
| P/S | 3.25×below usual | 3.87× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.0×below usual | 16.0× | — |
| P/B | 2.6×below usual | 3.2× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $135 (from $124 to $145) — 58% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$135
$124 – $145 · +58% against the last close
- 7 buy or overweight
- 1 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 36.2× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 5 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 31.2×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBARB Global, Inc. | $16B | 36.2× | 14.0× | 42.1% | 10.0% | 8% |
| ARMKAramark | $15B | 38.0× | 15.0× | 6.6% | 1.9% | 12% |
| CPRTCopart, Inc. | $27B | 18.5× | 12.0× | 44.7% | 31.8% | 16% |
| CTASCintas Corporation | $85B | 41.9× | 27.3× | 51.0% | 17.8% | 42% |
| ROLRollins, Inc. | $16B | 31.2× | 20.2× | 51.3% | 13.2% | 38% |
| ULSUL Solutions Inc. | $15B | 28.8× | 15.8× | 50.2% | 16.0% | 38% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 36.2× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now36.2×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Industrials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 33.7× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now33.7×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $419 a share — 391% above the $85.42 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $419 | 391% above $85.42 |
| Levered | $340 | 298% above $85.42 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.