Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. RCL
Royal Caribbean has sold off sharply—down roughly 20% from its 52-week high to $268.74 as of 2026-08-31—pushing RSI to an oversold 27.1 and the trailing PE to 16.5x, a 48% discount to the peer median of 31.8x. Despite Q2 2026 revenue growth decelerating to 6.5% YoY, the company beat EPS estimates by 5.8% ($4.21 vs. $3.98) and maintains a 27.4% operating margin (FY2025), while institutional inflows including BNY Mellon's new $381M position suggest accumulation at depressed levels.
Persistent insider selling ($743M net over 24 months), rising debt ($22.6B plus a new $1.25B note issuance at 5.55%), and compressed FCF of $1.2B against $5.2B CapEx temper conviction, but the risk/reward at these oversold levels favors accumulation.
What could go wrong
- Revenue deceleration. Q2 2026 YoY revenue growth slowed to 6.5% from 13.2% in Q4 2025, signaling post-pandemic demand normalization that could compress margins and multiples further.
- Balance sheet leverage. Total debt of $22.6B (FY2025) plus a new $1.25B senior unsecured note at 5.55% due 2034 issued August 2026 increases interest costs, while FCF compressed to $1.2B against $5.2B CapEx.
- Persistent insider selling. Net insider selling of $743M over 24 months across 178 dispositions, including CEO Bayley's July 2026 sale of 12,811 shares at $316, signals limited insider confidence at current levels.
- Oil cost headwind. Rising crude oil prices directly impact fuel costs—a major operating expense line for cruise operators—and have already contributed to same-day sector declines in August 2026.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: technicals (as of 2026-08-31) · peer_relative · quarterly_results Q2 2026; earnings_surprises · fundamentals FY2025; derived_metrics FY2025. Orin's read on RCL; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All RCL filings| Form | Filed | What it says | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8-K | 23 Sep | Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. | read |
| 8-K | 20 Aug | Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. | read |
| 13G/A | 12 Aug | — | on file |
| 8-K | 7 Aug | Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. | read |
| 10-Q | 28 Jul | Total revenues for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, were $4.832 billion, an increase of 6.5% year-over-year from $4.538 billion. | read |
| 8-K | 28 Jul | Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. | read |
| 8-K | 20 Jul | Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. | read |
| 8-K | 28 May | At the May 28, 2026 Annual Meeting, shareholders elected all thirteen director nominees, including John F. | read |
Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Capital Research Global Investors | $10.9B | 1.5% of fund |
| Capital World Investors | $5.9B | 0.7% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $5.1B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $3.9B | 0.2% of fund |
| State Street | $3.4B | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $2.2B | 0.1% of fund |
103 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 217 Form 4 filings, net −$742.9M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 27 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about RCL
Orin answers questions about RCL from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 14.2× | — | 79.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.7× | — | — |
| P/S | 3.31× | 3.65× | — |
| P/B | 6.1× | 7.0× | — |
Its P/E sits 40th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.37σ from its own mean).
20.2%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.2B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$348
$296 – $415 · +48% against today's price
- 26 buy or overweight
- 21 hold
- 6 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCLRoyal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. | $62B | 14.2× | 11.7× | 46.6% | 23.6% | 44% |
| ABNBAirbnb, Inc. | $89B | 33.8× | 28.0× | 78.0% | 20.4% | 33% |
| AZOAutoZone, Inc. | $46B | 28.7× | 20.5× | 51.9% | 11.9% | -53% |
| CCLCarnival Corporation & plc | $30B | 9.4× | 7.5× | 34.4% | 11.2% | 24% |
| CVNACarvana Co. | $70B | 22.1× | — | 19.4% | 6.3% | 47% |
| GMGeneral Motors Company | $76B | 41.9× | 13.9× | 5.7% | 1.0% | 3% |
| HLTHilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. | $69B | 44.7× | 26.6× | 44.1% | 12.7% | -28% |
| MARMarriott International, Inc. | $92B | 36.6× | 23.1× | 20.2% | 9.6% | -67% |
| ORLYO'Reilly Automotive, Inc. | $71B | 27.1× | 19.9× | 51.6% | 14.3% | -232% |
The median is of the 8 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 54.7% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $-915 | $268.07 · −441% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $-1655 | $268.07 · −717% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.