Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Royal Caribbean's fundamentals remain solid—a 27.4% FY2025 operating margin and four consecutive EPS beats including +5.8% in Q2 2026 and +11.1% in Q1 2026—while the stock trades at a 49.9% PE discount to the peer median at 16.02x.
However, revenue growth is decelerating sharply from 18.6% in FY2024 and 13.2% in Q4 2025 to just 6.5% in Q2 2026, and persistent insider selling of $743M net over 24 months with $22.6B total debt and a compressed FCF margin of 6.9% against $5.2B CapEx tempers conviction. With the stock recovered to $277.74 but still below both its 50-day ($282.09) and 200-day ($286.91) moving averages, the risk/reward is balanced; a hold is warranted pending Q3 2026 results for evidence that growth is stabilizing.
What could go wrong
- Revenue deceleration. YoY revenue growth has slowed from 18.6% in FY2024 to 8.8% in FY2025, with Q2 2026 at just 6.5%; further deceleration would pressure the premium valuation narrative.
- Persistent insider selling. Over 24 months, insiders net sold approximately $743M in shares (178 dispositions vs. 39 acquisitions) with no cluster buying, signaling limited insider confidence at current levels.
- Leverage and FCF compression. Total debt stands at $22.6B against $10.0B equity, while FY2025 FCF of $1.2B against $5.2B CapEx yields only a 6.9% FCF margin—down from 12.1% in FY2024.
- Fuel cost exposure. 2026 fuel expense is projected at approximately $1.34B per recent reporting; while below-market hedges offer partial protection, an oil spike could squeeze margins.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY25 fundamentals · earnings vs estimates · peer comparison · Q2 2026 fundamentals and results. Orin's read on RCL; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 7.6% over twelve months, from $320.26 on 27 Oct 2025 to $295.92 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $348.03 on 9 Feb 2026; the last close is 15.0% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 8.6M, on 28 Oct 2025).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
- Rose flags: large share sales by the company's own officers and directors, from the Form 4 each one files after trading.
On file
All RCL filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Capital Research Global Investors | $10.9B | 1.5% |
| BlackRock | $6.5B | 0.1% |
| Capital World Investors | $5.9B | 0.7% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $5.1B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $3.9B | 0.2% |
| State Street | $3.4B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $2.2B | 0.1% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $1.2B | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $1.0B | 0.1% |
| Northern Trust | $746.1M | 0.1% |
106 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 217 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$648.0M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 27 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about RCL
Orin answers questions about RCL from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 17.5× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — lower than in all 3 of its last 5 fiscal years with a P/E (middle 19.5×); the typical Consumer Cyclical company on the NYSE is at 20.4×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 17.5×below usual | 19.5× | 20.4× |
| P/S | 4.14× | — | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.3×near usual | 13.6× | — |
| P/B | 6.7×near usual | 7.0× | — |
- P/S: no usual level — it ran from 1.43× to 12.6× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $344 (from $298 to $415) — 16% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$344
$298 – $415 · +16% against the last close
- 17 buy or overweight
- 3 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 17.5× its last 12 months of profit. Only 2 of the 2 companies it is compared to made a profit (CCL 12.0×, NCLH 9.4×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCLRoyal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. | $79B | 17.5× | 13.3× | 46.7% | 23.8% | 44% |
| CCLCarnival Corporation & plc | $37B | 12.0× | 8.4× | 34.2% | 11.4% | 24% |
| NCLHNorwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. | $7B | 9.4× | 8.0× | 42.5% | 7.5% | 32% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 17.5× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now17.5×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Consumer Cyclical companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 20.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now20.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
Neither version of the cash-flow model gives a usable value.
- Standard: comes out below zero, so it is not shown.
- Levered: comes out below zero, so it is not shown.
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.