Regency Centers Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Regency Centers has sold off to $70.80 with an RSI of 24.5, placing it in deeply oversold territory and below both its 50-day ($75.31) and 200-day ($76.37) moving averages despite steady fundamental progress.
FY2025 revenue grew 3.4% to $1.55B with EPS up 33.6% to $2.82, and the first two quarters of 2026 show accelerating top-line growth of 4.6% and 5.1% YoY with consecutive EPS beats. At a P/E of 20.2, REG trades at an 18.7% discount to peer KIM's 24.9, while the grocery-anchored portfolio carries investment-grade credit ratings of A3 (Moody's) and A- (S&P) and a 12-year dividend growth streak, making current levels an attractive entry point for a quality retail REIT.
What could go wrong
- Rising leverage. Total debt climbed to $5.94B in FY2025 from $5.02B in FY2024 and $4.80B in FY2023, increasing interest rate sensitivity especially after the recent Fed rate hike.
- Free cash flow deterioration. FCF declined for a second consecutive year to $394M in FY2025 from $447M in FY2024 and $526M in FY2023, as capex surged to $435M, pressuring dividend coverage and external funding needs.
- Persistent insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders net sold ~254,815 shares valued at ~$19.7M with zero open-market acquisitions, signaling limited insider confidence at recent prices.
- Rate environment headwind. The Fed's recent rate hike directly pressures REIT valuations and REG's cost of capital, with the stock already trading below both key moving averages.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: technicals, 7 Oct · FY25 fundamentals · Q1–Q2 2026 results · peer comparison. Orin's read on REG; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 1.5% over twelve months, from $73.18 on 27 Oct 2025 to $74.28 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $82.68 on 17 Jul 2026; the last close is 10.2% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 5.6M, on 20 Mar 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All REG filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $1.6B | 0.0% |
| Norges Bank | $1.4B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.2B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $979.3M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $904.8M | 0.0% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $663.4M | 0.1% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $501.3M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $406.9M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $336.5M | 0.0% |
| Northern Trust | $266.7M | 0.0% |
78 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 163 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$19.7M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 1 a sale — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about REG
Orin answers questions about REG from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 21.6× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close) — lower than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 32.8×); the typical Real Estate company on the NASDAQ is at 37.0×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 21.6×below usual | 32.8× | 37.0× |
| P/S | 8.11×below usual | 8.63× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.2×below usual | 19.7× | — |
| P/B | below zero | 1.8× | — |
- P/B: below zero — it owes more than it owns on its books.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $83.69 (from $77 to $88) — 13% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$83.69
$77 – $88 · +13% against the last close
- 6 buy or overweight
- 7 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 21.6× its last 12 months of profit. Only 1 of the 1 companies it is compared to made a profit (KIM 26.6×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REGRegency Centers Corporation | $14B | 21.6× | 7.2× | n/a | 38.2% | n/m |
| KIMKimco Realty Corporation | $16B | 26.6× | 15.3× | n/a | 27.7% | 6% |
- REG: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- REG, KIM: gross margin is not used (n/a) for a bank, an insurer or a property trust — what it sells is money or space, not goods.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 21.6× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now21.6×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Real Estate companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 37.0× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now37.0×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $100 a share — 35% above the $73.73 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $100 | 35% above $73.73 |
| Levered | $46 | 38% below $73.73 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.