Orin
REGNasdaq·REIT - Retail

Regency Centers Corporation REG

Market cap $13.2BP/E 20.7× trailingGross margin 35.1%Reports Wed 28 Oct, after the close
$72.36
−0.56 (−0.77%)live 11:25 ET
52-wk $66.86 – $83.66
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Orin's take
0.62conviction · moderate
Refreshed 18 Aug · take v7. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

Regency Centers' Q2 2026 FFO beat and raised 2026 outlook confirm leasing momentum in its grocery-anchored portfolio, with FY2025 revenue of $1.55B and net income up 31.7% YoY to $527M. However, FY2025 gross margin compressed sharply to 44.7% from 71.2% in FY2024, free cash flow declined for a second consecutive year to $394M as capex climbed to $435M, and total debt rose to $5.94B.

Net insider selling of ~$24.8M over 24 months and a stock price at $76.19 below its 50-day moving average of $79.52 temper enthusiasm despite a 19.5% P/E discount to peer KIM.

What could go wrong

  • Margin compression. FY2025 gross margin collapsed to 44.7% from 71.2% in FY2024 and operating margin fell to 37.0% from 64.4%, signaling either a structural cost shift or large non-cash charges that erode earnings quality.
  • Rising leverage amid declining FCF. Total debt increased to $5.94B in FY2025 from $5.02B in FY2024 while free cash flow fell to $394M from $447M, tightening coverage as capex reached $435M.
  • Persistent insider selling. Over 24 months insiders net sold ~198,585 shares worth ~$24.8M with no cluster buys; recent August 2026 acquisitions were small grant-based transactions, not open-market purchases.
  • Technical weakness. RSI at 34.6 and MACD histogram negative at -0.32 indicate near-term downward momentum, with the stock trading below its 50-day MA of $79.52.

What would change my mind

Margin stabilization. Q3 2026 results show gross and operating margins recovering toward historical ~70%/~64% levels, confirming the FY2025 compression was a one-time accounting or non-cash event.bullish
FCF inflection. Capex normalizes below $350M annualized and free cash flow rebounds above $450M, restoring coverage of dividends and debt service.bullish
Debt-to-equity deterioration. Total debt continues climbing above $6B without corresponding NOI growth, pushing leverage into a range that constrains development pipeline funding.bearish
Leasing deceleration. Q3 2026 occupancy or rent spreads stall and management lowers 2026 guidance, reversing the positive momentum from the Q2 raise.bearish

Where this comes from: FMP FY2025 annual · derived_metrics FY2025 vs FY2024 · FMP FY2023–FY2025 annual · FMP FY2024–FY2025 annual. Orin's read on REG; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Norges Bank$1.4B0.1% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$1.2B0.1% of fund
State Street$979.3M0.0% of fund
Vanguard Capital Management$904.8M0.0% of fund
Price T Rowe Associates /Md/$663.4M0.1% of fund
Jpmorgan Chase &$501.3M0.0% of fund

75 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 163 Form 4 filings, net −$24.8M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 1 a sale— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

vs its own 5y · Real Estate
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E20.7×32.8×56.8×
EV/EBITDA15.6×19.9×—
P/S7.73×8.74×—
P/B1.9×1.9×—

Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−1.71σ from its own mean).

What the price assumes

14.8%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.4B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

33 firms · 2026-09-24
Consensus target

$85

$81 – $92 · +18% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 19 buy or overweight
  • 13 hold
  • 1 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 25.0× of 1 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
REGRegency Centers Corporation$13B20.7×15.6×35.1%38.2%10%
KIMKimco Realty Corporation$15B25.0×14.7×54.8%27.7%6%

The median is of the 1 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 17.4% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY14 35.4×FY25 24.5×

What its sector has traded at

Real Estate
FY14 44.0×FY26 52.3×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Discounted cash flow

not recomputed since
ModelFair valueAgainstComputed
Standard DCF$95$80.25 · +19%2026-06-10
Levered DCF$58$80.25 · −28%2026-06-10

The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.

Every estimate on one scale

price $72.36
52-week range$67 – $84
Analyst targets$81 – $92
Standard DCF$95 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $80.25
Levered DCF$58 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $80.25
At own 5y-median P/E (33×)$116
At 5y P/E range (22–36×)$79 – $125
At sector P/E (57×)$200

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.