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REXNYSE·Chemicals - Specialty

REX American Resources Corporation REX

Market cap $1.4BP/E 12.1× trailingGross margin 21.5%
$44.01
−0.24 (−0.54%)Wed close 16:00 ET
52-wk $30.30 – $53.36
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Orin's take
0.72conviction · high
Refreshed 3 Sep · take v4. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

REX American Resources remains a buy following record fiscal Q2 2026 EPS of $1.06 versus $0.22 in the prior-year quarter, extending a multi-quarter streak of significant earnings beats driven by stronger ethanol margins and Section 45Z tax credit contributions. The balance sheet is fortress-like with total debt of $21.3M against stockholders' equity of $610.7M as of the fiscal year ended 2026-01-31, and FY2025 produced positive free cash flow of $49.4M with EPS of $2.50.

At a PE of 14.94 and a last close of $41.99 below the 50-day moving average of $44.34, the stock offers an attractive entry after the earnings catalyst, though it trades at a premium to peers on EV/EBITDA at 10.82 versus a peer median of 7.34.

What could go wrong

  • Commodity margin cyclicality. Ethanol margins driving the record Q2 FY2026 results are inherently cyclical; any reversal in corn costs or ethanol pricing could compress the gross margin of 14.41% achieved in FY2025.
  • Regulatory dependence on Section 45Z. A material portion of recent earnings strength is attributed to the Section 45Z production tax credit; changes, delays, or expiration of this program would directly hit profitability.
  • Insider selling. Chairman Stuart Rose sold shares in June 2026 at approximately $43.64–$43.77 per share, and the 24-month insider net value is negative at -$6.4M despite net share acquisitions.
  • Valuation premium to peers. REX trades at an EV/EBITDA of 10.82 and PS of 2.11 versus peer medians of 7.34 and 0.57 respectively, leaving limited room for execution missteps.

What would change my mind

Section 45Z clarification or expansion. Federal guidance confirms or expands the Section 45Z tax credit framework with multi-year certaintybullish
Ethanol margin compression. Quarterly gross margin falls below the FY2025 Q2 level of approximately 9% (gross profit of $14.3M on revenue of $158.6M)bearish
One Earth Energy expansion milestone. One Earth Energy capacity expansion or carbon capture project achieves a concrete operational timelinebullish
Sustained break below 200-day MA. Stock closes below the 200-day moving average of $40.63 on rising volumebearish

Where this comes from: Business Wire press release 2026-09-02 · FMP fundamentals FY2025 · FMP fundamentals FY2025 · peer_relative. Orin's read on REX; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
State Street$71.0M0.0% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$58.0M0.0% of fund
Vanguard Capital Management$56.1M0.0% of fund
Geode Capital Management$39.2M0.0% of fund
D. E. Shaw &$29.2M0.0% of fund
Morgan Stanley$25.9M0.0% of fund

48 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 56 Form 4 filings, net −$6.4M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 9 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

· Basic Materials
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E12.1×29.8×
EV/EBITDA9.0×
P/S2.12×
P/B2.2×
What the price assumes

12.9%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.0B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

3 firms · 2026-09-23
Consensus target

$60

$60$60 · +36% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 3 buy or overweight
  • 0 hold
  • 0 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 8.4× of 1 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
REXREX American Resources Corporation$1B12.1×9.0×21.5%17.6%19%
ECVTEcovyst Inc.$1B7.5×21.0%-7.1%-10%
GPREGreen Plains Inc.$1B8.4×6.0×10.0%6.7%16%
SCLStepan Co$1B13.0×11.8%-0.1%-0%

The median is of the 1 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 42.8% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY15 5.2×FY26 13.5×

What its sector has traded at

Basic Materials
FY14 23.8×FY26 28.6×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Every estimate on one scale

price $44.01
52-week range$30 – $53
Analyst targets$60 – $60
At sector P/E (30×)$109

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.