Orin
RHINYSE·Staffing & Employment Services

Robert Half Inc. RHI

Market cap $3.8BP/E 32.5× trailingGross margin 36.8%Reports Wed 28 Oct, after the close
$37.37
+0.01 (+0.04%)live 09:40 ET
52-wk $21.83 – $46.70
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Orin's take
0.72conviction · high
Refreshed 24 Aug · take v3. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

RHI has rallied 62.1% in three months to $45.12, but the fundamental deterioration that drove the prior sell call has not reversed — FY2025 revenue fell 7.2% to $5.38B, EPS collapsed 45.5% to $1.33, and operating margin compressed to 1.4%. The stock now trades at 39.2x trailing earnings, an 83% premium to the peer median of 21.4x, and 30.3x EV/EBITDA versus a 13.9x peer median, pricing in a staffing recovery that has yet to appear in reported results.

With the last close well above both the 50-day MA of $37.41 and the 200-day MA of $29.52, and RSI at 66.3, the rally has extended beyond what still-declining fundamentals can support.

What could go wrong

  • Staffing cycle inflection. If hiring demand genuinely rebounds, RHI's operating leverage could be substantial given operating margin has fallen from 13.49% in 2022 to 1.42% in FY2025 — even a modest recovery could drive outsized earnings improvement.
  • Protiviti consulting turnaround. Protiviti was recognized for AI-enabled consulting and enterprise transformation in Aug 2026 news; if this segment stabilizes after weakness, it could support consolidated results.
  • Institutional sentiment improvement. Smart money score ticked up to 0.0087 as of Q2 2026 from negative readings in early 2025, and fund count held at 48, suggesting some conviction is building despite the deteriorating fundamentals.
  • Low PS relative to peers. PS at 0.87x versus a peer median of 2.13x could attract value-oriented buyers if revenue stabilizes, though the discount reflects a shrinking revenue base rather than an overlooked bargain.

What would change my mind

Q3 2026 results. If Talent Solutions revenue growth accelerates and Protiviti stabilizes, showing tangible recovery in reported financials, the call would shift toward hold or buy.bullish
Operating margin trajectory. If operating margin expands meaningfully above the FY2025 level of 1.42%, it would confirm operating leverage from a staffing rebound; if it stays compressed or worsens, the sell thesis strengthens.bullish
Insider open-market purchases. Current insider activity consists of RSU grant acquisitions (code A, null price); genuine open-market purchases at market prices would signal insider confidence and warrant reevaluation.bullish
Smart money deterioration. If the smart money score turns negative or fund count drops further from 48, it would confirm institutional distribution into the rally.bearish

Where this comes from: FMP FY2025 annual; derived_metrics revenue_growth_yoy -0.072 · FMP FY2025 annual EPS $1.33; derived_metrics eps_growth_yoy -0.4549 · derived_metrics FY2025 operating_margin 0.0142 · peer_relative pe 39.23, peer_median_pe 21.40, pe_vs_median_pct 83.33. Orin's read on RHI; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Aqr Capital Management$216.7M0.1% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$165.1M0.0% of fund
State Street$142.0M0.0% of fund
Vanguard Capital Management$135.5M0.0% of fund
Capital World Investors$128.6M0.0% of fund
Charles Schwab Investment Management$117.7M0.0% of fund

59 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 57 Form 4 filings, net −$6.4M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 1 a sale— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

· Industrials
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E32.5×44.5×
EV/EBITDA25.0×
P/S0.72×
P/B3.1×
What the price assumes

3.1%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.3B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

25 firms · 2026-09-23
Consensus target

$38

$29$47 · +2% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 7 buy or overweight
  • 11 hold
  • 7 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 19.4× of 5 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
RHIRobert Half Inc.$4B32.5×25.0×36.8%2.2%9%
BRCBrady Corporation$4B19.4×12.2×51.7%12.4%16%
KFYKorn Ferry$4B13.6×6.9×9.9%9.4%14%
TNETTriNet Group, Inc.$3B17.4×9.5×19.1%3.6%188%
UNFUniFirst Corporation$5B38.9×15.6×36.7%4.6%5%
VSECVSE Corporation$5B64.9×33.6×14.0%5.5%4%

The median is of the 5 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 67.8% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY14 25.6×FY25 20.4×

What its sector has traded at

Industrials
FY14 173.5×FY26 32.7×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Every estimate on one scale

price $37.37
52-week range$22 – $47
Analyst targets$29 – $47
At sector P/E (45×)$51

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.