Orin
RMDNYSE·Medical - Instruments & Supplies

ResMed Inc. RMD

Market cap $32.1BP/E 21.3× trailingGross margin 61.2%Reports Thu 29 Oct, after the close
$222.30
+0.33 (+0.15%)Wed close 16:00 ET
52-wk $180.27 – $284.87
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Orin's take
0.72conviction · high
Refreshed 30 Aug · take v9. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

ResMed remains a buy based on FY2026 results (year ended 2026-06-30) showing revenue of $5.65B growing 9.85% YoY, operating margin expansion to 33.48%, and $1.65B in free cash flow at a 29.18% FCF margin. At 23.02x P/E — roughly a 28.5% discount to the peer median of 32.20x — and 15.94x EV/EBITDA versus the peer median of 17.48x, the stock offers compelling relative value for a franchise with expanding gross margins (61.16% versus 55.78% three years prior) and minimal leverage ($825.9M total debt against $6.59B equity).

The newly surfaced Pomerantz investigation and $35.3M of net insider selling over 24 months are watch items, but bullish technicals — the stock trading above its 50-day ($211.35) and 200-day ($228.82) moving averages with a positive MACD histogram — and growing institutional participation (61 funds as of the quarter ended 2026-06-30, up from ~51 a year earlier) support continued ownership.

What could go wrong

  • Securities litigation overhang. Pomerantz LLP announced investigations into ResMed on Aug 25 and Aug 27, 2026; formalization into a class action could create sustained selling pressure and reputational drag.
  • Near-term overbought conditions. RSI(14) at 68.95 as of 2026-08-28 approaches overbought territory; the stock sits ~$12 above its 200-day MA ($228.82), leaving it vulnerable to a mean-reversion pullback.
  • Persistent insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders net sold approximately 94,807 shares for $35.3M, including CEO Michael Farrell routinely exercising options and selling same-day; no meaningful insider buying is evident.
  • Smart money slightly negative. The smart money score is -0.0068 as of the quarter ended 2026-06-30, having deteriorated from +0.0318 in Sep 2025; institutional positioning has turned marginally cautious despite higher fund count.

What would change my mind

Litigation escalation. Pomerantz investigation progresses to a formal securities class action filing with specific damages allegationsbearish
Margin contraction. Gross margin falls below 60% or operating margin compresses in upcoming quarterly resultsbearish
Revenue reacceleration. Revenue growth reaccelerates above 12% YoY in coming quarters, signaling device or mask market share gainsbullish
Technical breakdown. Stock closes below the 200-day MA ($228.82) on rising volumebearish

Where this comes from: FMP fundamentals + derived_metrics, FY2026 (period ended 2026-06-30) · peer_relative (as of 2026-08-28) · derived_metrics FY2026 vs FY2023 · FMP fundamentals, FY2026 (period ended 2026-06-30). Orin's read on RMD; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Vanguard Capital Management$1.8B0.0% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$1.5B0.1% of fund
State Street$1.3B0.0% of fund
Geode Capital Management$845.2M0.0% of fund
Bank of New York Mellon$818.0M0.1% of fund
Invesco$402.1M0.0% of fund

81 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 146 Form 4 filings, net −$36.6M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 26 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

vs its own 5y · Healthcare
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E21.3×35.7×26.4×
EV/EBITDA14.7×24.6×
P/S5.70×7.59×
P/B4.9×7.8×

Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−1.09σ from its own mean).

What the price assumes

7.4%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.6B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

35 firms · 2026-09-23
Consensus target

$243

$213$300 · +9% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 14 buy or overweight
  • 16 hold
  • 5 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 32.9× of 7 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
RMDResMed Inc.$32B21.3×14.7×61.2%26.9%24%
AAgilent Technologies, Inc.$47B32.5×24.8×53.7%19.5%20%
BDXBecton, Dickinson and Company$50B55.0×17.0×46.1%4.5%4%
CAHCardinal Health, Inc.$52B30.4×16.4×3.8%0.7%-60%
GEHCGE HealthCare Technologies Inc.$30B19.0×10.9×42.9%7.9%15%
HUMHumana Inc.$45B35.2×17.1×13.7%0.9%7%
IQVIQVIA Holdings Inc.$44B32.9×16.6×26.2%8.1%22%
MTDMettler-Toledo International Inc.$30B33.5×24.7×58.4%21.9%-1200%

The median is of the 7 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 35.4% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY15 22.5×FY26 18.7×

What its sector has traded at

Healthcare
FY14 6.5×FY26 28.6×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Discounted cash flow

not recomputed since
ModelFair valueAgainstComputed
Standard DCF$305$195.21 · +56%2026-06-10
Levered DCF$509$195.21 · +161%2026-06-10

The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.

Every estimate on one scale

price $222.30
52-week range$180 – $285
Analyst targets$213 – $300
Standard DCF$305 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $195.21
Levered DCF$509 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $195.21
At own 5y-median P/E (36×)$373
At 5y P/E range (27–75×)$281 – $788
At sector P/E (26×)$276

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.