ResMed Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
ResMed's fundamentals remain best-in-class — FY2026 (ended 30 Jun) revenue of $5.65B grew 9.9% YoY with operating margin expanding to 33.8% and $1.65B free cash flow at a 29.2% FCF margin — and the stock has recovered technically, now trading at $239.77 above both its 50-day ($227.53) and 200-day ($225.03) moving averages with a positive MACD histogram as of 19 Oct.
However, valuation has stretched with P/S at 5.96x — 90.2% above the peer median of 3.14x — and RSI at 67.28 signals overbought conditions, while persistent net insider selling of $44.2M over 24 months and a near-zero smart money score of 0.01 as of 30 Jun temper enthusiasm. With Q1 FY2027 earnings on October 29 and management guiding 12–14% EPS growth on GLP-1-driven demand, the setup is constructive but already partially priced in; hold pending the earnings print for confirmation.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. P/S of 5.96x is 90.2% above the peer median of 3.14x, leaving little room for execution missteps; any revenue growth deceleration could trigger a de-rating.
- Persistent insider selling. Net insider dispositions of 181,005 shares worth $44.2M over 24 months with zero acquisitions and no cluster buys signal limited insider conviction at current levels.
- Smart money apathy. Smart money score of 0.01 as of 30 Jun is down sharply from 0.03 in Q1 2026, indicating institutional positioning is not supportive despite a rising fund count of 63.
- Revenue growth deceleration. Q4 FY2026 revenue growth of 8.6% YoY decelerated from 11.0% in Q2 FY2026, and management's 5–7% core constant-currency guidance suggests further moderation ahead.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY26 fundamentals · technicals, 19 Oct · peer comparison · insider trades, last 24 months. Orin's read on RMD; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 3.2% over twelve months, from $259.21 on 27 Oct 2025 to $250.80 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $275.96 on 9 Feb 2026; the last close is 9.1% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 3.9M, on 18 Jun 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All RMD filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $2.4B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.8B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.5B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $1.3B | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $845.2M | 0.0% |
| Bank of New York Mellon | $818.0M | 0.1% |
| Invesco | $402.1M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $375.9M | 0.0% |
| Northern Trust | $330.6M | 0.0% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $238.2M | 0.0% |
83 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 150 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$44.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 27 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about RMD
Orin answers questions about RMD from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 24.0× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 1 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 27.0×); the typical Healthcare company on the NYSE is at 25.8×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 24.0×below usual | 27.0× | 25.8× |
| P/S | 6.24×below usual | 7.36× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.0×below usual | 19.6× | — |
| P/B | 5.5×below usual | 6.3× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $244 (from $213 to $300) — 3% below the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$244
$213 – $300 · −3% against the last close
- 4 buy or overweight
- 7 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 24.0× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 4 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 21.7×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RMDResMed Inc. | $35B | 24.0× | 16.0× | 61.2% | 26.9% | 24% |
| BSXBoston Scientific Corporation | $65B | 18.2× | 13.3× | 71.2% | 17.5% | 15% |
| GEHCGE HealthCare Technologies Inc. | $32B | 20.4× | 13.1× | 42.9% | 7.9% | 15% |
| ISRGIntuitive Surgical, Inc. | $158B | 53.3× | 36.9× | 67.2% | 25.5% | 17% |
| MDTMedtronic plc | $120B | 23.0× | 14.4× | 66.7% | 13.9% | 11% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 24.0× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now24.0×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Healthcare companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 25.8× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now25.8×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $348 a share — 39% above the $250.63 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $348 | 39% above $250.63 |
| Levered | $517 | 106% above $250.63 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.