Rollins, Inc. ROL
Rollins remains a high-quality compounder — FY2025 revenue grew 11% to $3.76B with $650M free cash flow on just $28M of capex and a 19.4% operating margin — but the stock still trades at 33.1x earnings, an 80% premium to the peer median P/E of 18.4x, and has barely moved since the prior sell call. Multiple Pomerantz securities fraud investigations announced between Aug 18 and Aug 27, 2026 create an unresolved legal overhang, and insiders have net sold $3.39B of stock over the trailing 24 months.
Gross margin compressed from 52.7% to 49.4% year-over-year, adding to the concern. The business is still compounding but the combination of legal risk, still-rich valuation, and margin pressure keeps the risk/reward balanced rather than attractive — hold pending clarity on the investigations and margin trajectory.
What could go wrong
- Legal overhang. Multiple Pomerantz securities fraud investigations announced Aug 18–27, 2026 could lead to settlements, restatements, or governance findings that pressure the stock further.
- Margin compression. Gross margin dropped from 52.7% to 49.4% YoY (FY2024 to FY2025); if the trend continues, the premium valuation thesis weakens materially.
- Insider selling. Net insider selling of $3.39B over 24 months with 62 dispositions versus 31 acquisitions suggests persistent reduction by those closest to the business.
- Valuation premium. At 33.1x P/E — an 80% premium to the 18.4x peer median — any growth deceleration or negative legal outcome could trigger further multiple compression.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP fundamentals FY2025 · derived_metrics FY2025 and FY2024 · peer_relative · news articles. Orin's read on ROL; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All ROL filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $826.4M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $708.6M | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $566.0M | 0.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $490.4M | 0.0% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $269.5M | 0.0% of fund |
| Invesco | $255.7M | 0.0% of fund |
85 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 94 Form 4 filings, net −$3.4B. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 5 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about ROL
Orin answers questions about ROL from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 29.5× | 48.8× | 79.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.3× | 32.1× | — |
| P/S | 3.98× | 6.94× | — |
| P/B | 10.9× | 16.9× | — |
Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−7.16σ from its own mean).
10.2%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.7B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$49
$32 – $67 · +51% against today's price
- 7 buy or overweight
- 13 hold
- 2 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ROLRollins, Inc. | $16B | 29.5× | 19.3× | 50.7% | 13.6% | 37% |
| EXPEExpedia Group, Inc. | $30B | 15.5× | 7.3× | 90.4% | 13.0% | 185% |
| LENLennar Corporation | $20B | 15.4× | 11.9× | 9.5% | 4.1% | 6% |
| PHMPulteGroup, Inc. | $23B | 12.1× | 9.9× | 24.5% | 11.6% | 15% |
| TSCOTractor Supply Company | $17B | 16.8× | 12.2× | 32.5% | 6.4% | 39% |
| ULTAUlta Beauty, Inc. | $23B | 19.7× | 13.3× | 39.3% | 9.3% | 45% |
| WSMWilliams-Sonoma, Inc. | $27B | 23.0× | 14.2× | 47.2% | 14.7% | 58% |
The median is of the 6 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 82.6% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $50 | $48.41 · +3% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $54 | $48.41 · +12% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.