Orin
ROLNYSE·Personal Products & Services

Rollins, Inc. ROL

Market cap $15.6BP/E 29.5× trailingGross margin 50.7%Reports Wed 28 Oct, after the close
$32.49
−0.37 (−1.13%)Wed close 16:00 ET
52-wk $31.88 – $66.14
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Orin's take
0.55conviction · moderate
Refreshed 30 Aug · take v7. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

Rollins remains a high-quality compounder — FY2025 revenue grew 11% to $3.76B with $650M free cash flow on just $28M of capex and a 19.4% operating margin — but the stock still trades at 33.1x earnings, an 80% premium to the peer median P/E of 18.4x, and has barely moved since the prior sell call. Multiple Pomerantz securities fraud investigations announced between Aug 18 and Aug 27, 2026 create an unresolved legal overhang, and insiders have net sold $3.39B of stock over the trailing 24 months.

Gross margin compressed from 52.7% to 49.4% year-over-year, adding to the concern. The business is still compounding but the combination of legal risk, still-rich valuation, and margin pressure keeps the risk/reward balanced rather than attractive — hold pending clarity on the investigations and margin trajectory.

What could go wrong

  • Legal overhang. Multiple Pomerantz securities fraud investigations announced Aug 18–27, 2026 could lead to settlements, restatements, or governance findings that pressure the stock further.
  • Margin compression. Gross margin dropped from 52.7% to 49.4% YoY (FY2024 to FY2025); if the trend continues, the premium valuation thesis weakens materially.
  • Insider selling. Net insider selling of $3.39B over 24 months with 62 dispositions versus 31 acquisitions suggests persistent reduction by those closest to the business.
  • Valuation premium. At 33.1x P/E — an 80% premium to the 18.4x peer median — any growth deceleration or negative legal outcome could trigger further multiple compression.

What would change my mind

Legal resolution. Pomerantz investigations are dismissed or settled without material findings or restatementsbullish
Gross margin stabilization. Quarterly gross margin stops declining and returns toward the 52% level last seen in FY2024bullish
Revenue growth deceleration. YoY revenue growth falls below high single digits, undermining the premium-growth justification for the multiplebearish
Technical breakdown. Stock closes below $30 on heavy volume, signaling loss of institutional supportbearish

Where this comes from: FMP fundamentals FY2025 · derived_metrics FY2025 and FY2024 · peer_relative · news articles. Orin's read on ROL; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Vanguard Capital Management$826.4M0.0% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$708.6M0.0% of fund
State Street$566.0M0.0% of fund
Geode Capital Management$490.4M0.0% of fund
Morgan Stanley$269.5M0.0% of fund
Invesco$255.7M0.0% of fund

85 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 94 Form 4 filings, net −$3.4B. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 5 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

vs its own 5y · Consumer Cyclical
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E29.5×48.8×79.6×
EV/EBITDA19.3×32.1×
P/S3.98×6.94×
P/B10.9×16.9×

Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−7.16σ from its own mean).

What the price assumes

10.2%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.7B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

22 firms · 2026-09-23
Consensus target

$49

$32$67 · +51% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 7 buy or overweight
  • 13 hold
  • 2 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 16.2× of 6 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
ROLRollins, Inc.$16B29.5×19.3×50.7%13.6%37%
EXPEExpedia Group, Inc.$30B15.5×7.3×90.4%13.0%185%
LENLennar Corporation$20B15.4×11.9×9.5%4.1%6%
PHMPulteGroup, Inc.$23B12.1×9.9×24.5%11.6%15%
TSCOTractor Supply Company$17B16.8×12.2×32.5%6.4%39%
ULTAUlta Beauty, Inc.$23B19.7×13.3×39.3%9.3%45%
WSMWilliams-Sonoma, Inc.$27B23.0×14.2×47.2%14.7%58%

The median is of the 6 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 82.6% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY14 35.0×FY25 55.1×

What its sector has traded at

Consumer Cyclical
FY14 393.1×FY26 81.0×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Discounted cash flow

not recomputed since
ModelFair valueAgainstComputed
Standard DCF$50$48.41 · +3%2026-06-10
Levered DCF$54$48.41 · +12%2026-06-10

The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.

Every estimate on one scale

price $32.49
52-week range$32 – $66
Analyst targets$32 – $67
Standard DCF$50 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $48.41
Levered DCF$54 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $48.41
At own 5y-median P/E (49×)$54
At 5y P/E range (47–55×)$52 – $61
At sector P/E (80×)$88

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.