Ross Stores, Inc. ROST
Ross Stores is executing at a high level, with Q2 FY2026 revenue up 13.3% to $6.26B and EPS of $2.66 crushing the $1.95 estimate by 36.4% — the fourth consecutive earnings beat — while management raised its fiscal 2026 outlook. The stock has pulled back below its 50-day moving average to $229.24 with an RSI of 39.6, offering an entry into a business generating $2.21B in FY2025 free cash flow at a 9.7% FCF margin and expanding gross margin of 27.95%.
The 34.7% P/E premium to the peer median of 20.36x is justified by accelerating top-line growth and the off-price model's structural advantages, though persistent insider net selling of $41.7M over 24 months tempers enthusiasm.
What could go wrong
- Valuation premium. P/E of 27.44x sits 34.7% above the peer median of 20.36x and EV/EBITDA of 17.97x is 25.2% above the 14.36x median, leaving limited room for execution missteps.
- Insider selling. Net insider dispositions of $41.7M across 59 transactions over 24 months, including March 2026 sales by the COO and CFO, signal limited insider conviction at current levels.
- Tariff-driven growth sustainability. Q1 and Q2 FY2026 revenue growth of 20.6% and 13.3% respectively may be partly inflated by tariff-related inventory dynamics; if off-price sourcing tailwinds fade, comps could normalize.
- Technical weakness. Stock trades below its 50-day MA of $234.10 with a negative MACD histogram of -2.04, suggesting near-term momentum has not yet turned.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: quarterly_results Q2 FY2026; earnings_surprises · FMP FY2025; derived_metrics FY2025 · peer_relative · insider summary. Orin's read on ROST; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All ROST filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $4.5B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $3.1B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $3.1B | 0.1% of fund |
| Invesco | $2.6B | 0.2% of fund |
| Fmr | $2.3B | 0.1% of fund |
| Bank Of America /De/ | $2.0B | 0.1% of fund |
113 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 64 Form 4 filings, net −$65.7M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 15 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about ROST
Orin answers questions about ROST from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 28.3× | 25.1× | 79.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.5× | 16.2× | — |
| P/S | 3.08× | 2.31× | — |
| P/B | 11.1× | 9.5× | — |
Its P/E sits above all 5 of the last 5 years (+1.25σ from its own mean).
15.0%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $2.2B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$274
$234 – $310 · +16% against today's price
- 30 buy or overweight
- 13 hold
- 4 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ROSTRoss Stores, Inc. | $76B | 28.3× | 18.5× | 29.9% | 10.8% | 42% |
| AZOAutoZone, Inc. | $47B | 18.3× | 14.1× | 52.3% | 12.6% | -90% |
| CMGChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. | $41B | 29.4× | 20.3× | 24.1% | 11.4% | 53% |
| CPRTCopart, Inc. | $26B | 18.0× | 11.7× | 44.7% | 31.8% | 16% |
| EBAYeBay Inc. | $48B | 21.8× | 17.4× | 72.5% | 18.5% | 48% |
| FFord Motor Company | $50B | — | — | 10.8% | -3.9% | -19% |
| HLTHilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. | $70B | 45.4× | 26.9× | 44.1% | 12.7% | -28% |
| LVSLas Vegas Sands Corp. | $25B | 15.0× | 8.0× | 50.9% | 12.8% | 142% |
The median is of the 6 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 40.7% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $127 | $231.43 · −45% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $117 | $231.43 · −50% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.