Orin
RPMNYSE·Chemicals - Specialty

RPM International Inc. RPM

Market cap $12.6BP/E 19.0× trailingGross margin 41.4%Reports Tue 6 Oct, before the open
$98.83
+0.13 (+0.13%)live 11:25 ET
52-wk $92.92 – $121.94
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Orin's take
0.58conviction · moderate
Refreshed 31 Aug · take v3. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

RPM International's FY2026 (fiscal year ended May 31, 2026) results show accelerating top-line growth — revenue rose 6.6% to $7.86B and free cash flow expanded to $675M (8.6% margin) — but operating margin compressed from 12.3% to 11.7% and diluted EPS declined 3.4% to $5.17, as MAP 3.0 restructuring costs weigh on profitability. At 20.5x trailing earnings, the stock trades roughly 60% below the specialty-chemical peer median P/E (51.5x) and 17% below the peer median EV/EBITDA (14.6x), yet near-term technicals have weakened with the stock at $106.65, below its 50-day MA ($109.03) and showing a negative MACD histogram of -1.01.

Management's guided 3%-7% revenue and 5%-10% EBITDA growth, combined with 24-month net insider buying of ~$15.6M and an improving smart-money score (0.0133 as of June 30, 2026), suggests the margin compression may be transitory, but until quarterly results confirm operating margin recovery the risk/reward remains balanced.

What could go wrong

  • Margin compression persists. Operating margin already declined from 12.3% to 11.7% in FY2026; if MAP 3.0 restructuring savings fail to materialize, further erosion would pressure EPS
  • Construction end-market slowdown. RPM's core exposure to construction and building maintenance markets makes it vulnerable to any housing or infrastructure spending downturn
  • Technical breakdown below 200-day MA. Stock is sitting near its 200-day moving average ($106.64); a sustained break below could trigger further selling
  • Leverage exposure. Total debt of $2.87B against stockholders' equity of $3.31B limits financial flexibility if rates rise or end markets soften

What would change my mind

Operating margin recovery. Next quarter's operating margin returns toward or above 12%, confirming restructuring benefits are flowing throughbullish
Technical breakdown. Sustained close below the 200-day moving average ($106.64) on elevated volumebearish
Management raises guidance. Management raises the midpoint of its 3%-7% revenue or 5%-10% EBITDA growth guidance at the next updatebullish
Insider selling acceleration. CEO or senior insiders accelerate open-market selling beyond the current SARs-exercise patternbearish

Where this comes from: FMP FY2026 fundamentals · derived_metrics FY2025–FY2026 · FMP FY2026 fundamentals, derived_metrics · FMP FY2026 fundamentals, derived_metrics. Orin's read on RPM; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$793.3M0.0% of fund
State Street$750.5M0.0% of fund
Vanguard Capital Management$640.9M0.0% of fund
Morgan Stanley$466.5M0.0% of fund
Geode Capital Management$294.8M0.0% of fund
Price T Rowe Associates /Md/$283.2M0.0% of fund

84 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 108 Form 4 filings, net $15.6M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 3 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

· Basic Materials
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E19.0×—29.8×
EV/EBITDA11.4×——
P/S1.60×——
P/B3.8×——
What the price assumes

6.8%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.7B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

22 firms · 2026-09-24
Consensus target

$133

$117 – $151 · +34% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 17 buy or overweight
  • 5 hold
  • 0 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 78.8× of 5 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
RPMRPM International Inc.$13B19.0×11.4×41.4%8.4%21%
ALBAlbemarle Corporation$13B225.5×10.7×23.9%3.8%2%
CFCF Industries Holdings, Inc.$18B8.8×4.9×42.5%27.1%40%
DDDuPont de Nemours, Inc.$18B283.2×14.3×34.4%0.7%0%
IFFInternational Flavors & Fragrances Inc.$22B78.8×18.6×37.5%2.9%2%
LYBLyondellBasell Industries N.V.$19B—16.4×13.2%-1.1%-3%
RSReliance Steel & Aluminum Co.$20B22.3×14.1×26.9%5.7%12%

The median is of the 5 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 75.9% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY15 27.7×FY26 20.2×

What its sector has traded at

Basic Materials
FY14 23.8×FY26 28.6×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Every estimate on one scale

price $98.83
52-week range$93 – $122
Analyst targets$117 – $151
At sector P/E (30×)$155

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.