RPM International Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
RPM International just reported record fiscal 2027 first-quarter revenue of $2.22B with EPS of $2.01 beating the $1.95 estimate, yet the stock at $95.30 sits roughly 10% below both its 50-day ($105.80) and 200-day ($106.00) moving averages with an RSI of 31.9, reflecting a persistent downtrend despite improving fundamentals.
FY2026 revenue grew 6.7% to $7.86B and FCF margin expanded to 8.6%, but operating margin compressed to 11.7% and diluted EPS fell 3.4% to $5.17, creating a mixed picture where top-line momentum has not translated to bottom-line growth. At 18.4x trailing earnings and 11.1x EV/EBITDA versus peer medians near 50x and 14.6x, the valuation is undemanding, but zero insider purchases over 24 months and CEO share dispositions at $116.72 in August 2026 provide no confidence signal to anchor a contrarian entry.
What could go wrong
- Margin compression persists. FY2026 operating margin compressed to 11.7% from 12.3% in FY2025 while EPS declined 3.4% to $5.17, suggesting MAP 3.0 restructuring costs and input inflation continue to erode profitability despite revenue growth.
- Insider selling signal. Over 24 months there have been zero insider acquisitions and net dispositions of 16,691 shares; CEO Frank Sullivan disposed of shares at $116.72 on 5 Aug, well above the current $95.30 price.
- Technical downtrend. Stock at $95.30 trades below both MA50 ($105.80) and MA200 ($106.00) with RSI of 31.9, indicating sustained negative momentum that could deepen despite oversold readings.
- Consumer segment weakness. Recent Seeking Alpha coverage notes persistent weakness in the Consumer segment, offsetting strength in Construction Products and Performance Coatings, limiting consolidated margin recovery.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: results and earnings vs estimates, quarter to 31 Aug · FY26 fundamentals · FY25 and FY26 fundamentals · technicals, 5 Oct. Orin's read on RPM; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 11.8% over twelve months, from $111.60 on 27 Oct 2025 to $98.41 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $120.17 on 12 Feb 2026; the last close is 18.1% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 11.4M, on 31 Aug 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All RPM filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $1.5B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $793.3M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $750.5M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $640.9M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $466.5M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $294.8M | 0.0% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $283.2M | 0.0% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $235.9M | 0.0% |
| Citadel Advisors | $173.0M | 0.0% |
| Bank of America | $139.0M | 0.0% |
86 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 101 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$705K. Of the 50 on hand, none was an open-market trade — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about RPM
Orin answers questions about RPM from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 18.1× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — lower than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 21.3×); the typical Basic Materials company on the NYSE is at 22.4×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 18.1×below usual | 21.3× | 22.4× |
| P/S | 1.58×below usual | 1.69× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.8×below usual | 15.3× | — |
| P/B | 3.6×below usual | 5.0× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $125 (from $107 to $147) — 27% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$125
$107 – $147 · +27% against the last close
- 13 buy or overweight
- 1 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 18.1× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 7 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 19.9×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RPMRPM International Inc. | $13B | 18.1× | 11.8× | 41.2% | 8.7% | 21% |
| AXTAAxalta Coating Systems Ltd. | $7B | 21.2× | 10.0× | 32.6% | 6.8% | 15% |
| CRHCRH plc | $57B | 15.0× | 8.4× | 36.2% | 9.9% | 16% |
| CSLCarlisle Companies Incorporated | $14B | 19.9× | 12.9× | 35.3% | 14.2% | 41% |
| FULH.B. Fuller Company | $3B | 13.6× | 8.6× | 32.8% | 5.6% | 10% |
| OCOwens Corning | $10B | lost money | 16.2× | 25.2% | −4.4% | −12% |
| PPGPPG Industries, Inc. | $25B | 16.1× | 12.2× | 29.5% | 9.4% | n/m |
| SHWThe Sherwin-Williams Company | $79B | 29.7× | 20.2× | 48.7% | 10.7% | 27% |
| VMCVulcan Materials Company | $34B | 30.9× | 15.1× | 27.4% | 13.8% | 13% |
- OC: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- PPG: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 18.1× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now18.1×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Basic Materials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 22.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now22.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $113 a share — 15% above the $98.19 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $113 | 15% above $98.19 |
| Levered | $178 | 81% above $98.19 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.