Orin
RRXNYSE·Industrial - Machinery

Regal Rexnord Corporation RRX

Market cap $10.3BP/E 31.0× trailingGross margin 37.8%Reports Wed 4 Nov, before the open
$154.21
+3.10 (+2.05%)live 11:20 ET
52-wk $127.96 – $247.80
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Orin's take
0.58conviction · moderate
Refreshed 21 Aug · take v4. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

Regal Rexnord's Q2 2026 results showed genuine operational improvement with daily orders up 8.8% and sales of $1,558.4M up 4.2% YoY, yet the stock has continued sliding to $169.49, now trading at 12.98x EV/EBITDA (26.6% below the peer median of 17.68x) and 1.86x P/S (48.4% below peer median). However, $32.0M of IEEPA tariff refund benefit inflated Q2 adjusted EBITDA growth from roughly 1.5% to 11.2%, the technical picture remains deeply broken with the stock well below both the 50-day ($205.65) and 200-day ($185.99) moving averages, and net insider selling of $74.0M over 24 months persists with no meaningful open-market purchases.

The deleveraging trajectory (total debt down from $6.55B in FY2023 to $5.06B in FY2025) and strong FCF of $893M at a 15.05% FCF margin support a constructive stance, but the combination of earnings quality concerns, a declining smart money score from 0.0693 to 0.0072, and lowered segment outlooks amid residential HVAC and pool weakness warrants patience until Q3 confirms the order recovery is sustainable without one-off benefits.

What could go wrong

  • Earnings quality. Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA growth of 11.2% was inflated by a $32.0M IEEPA tariff refund benefit; underlying growth was roughly 1.5%, raising questions about the durability of margin expansion.
  • Technical breakdown. Stock at $169.49 trades well below both the 50-day ($205.65) and 200-day ($185.99) moving averages with RSI at 34.36 and MACD histogram at -1.46, signaling persistent bearish momentum.
  • End-market weakness. Management lowered certain segment outlooks amid inflation, pricing lags, and weakness in residential HVAC and pool markets, which could offset data center and automation strength.
  • Persistent insider selling. Net insider selling of $74.0M over 24 months with 315 transactions and no meaningful open-market purchases signals continued lack of insider conviction at these levels.

What would change my mind

Q3 2026 organic growth confirmation. Q3 2026 results show organic revenue growth and order acceleration excluding one-off tariff benefits, with adjusted EBITDA margin expansion on a clean basisbullish
Technical stabilization. Stock reclaims the 200-day moving average at $185.99 with RSI recovering above 50bullish
End-market deterioration. Residential HVAC and pool weakness spreads to data center or automation segments, or daily orders decelerate below mid-single-digit growthbearish
Smart money exodus. 13F filings for Q3 2026 show fund count declining below 50 and smart money score turning negativebearish

Where this comes from: PRNewswire Q2 2026 earnings release · Zacks Q2 earnings report · peer_relative composite · technicals as of 2026-08-19. Orin's read on RRX; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Fmr$1.1B0.0% of fund
Vanguard Capital Management$716.9M0.0% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$675.1M0.0% of fund
Wellington Management Group Llp$615.5M0.1% of fund
Viking Global Investors$500.6M1.4% of fund
State Street$498.9M0.0% of fund

78 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 316 Form 4 filings, net −$74.1M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 9 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

· Industrials
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E31.0×—44.5×
EV/EBITDA12.0×——
P/S1.66×——
P/B1.5×——
What the price assumes

-0.2%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.9B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

22 firms · 2026-09-24
Consensus target

$258

$240 – $286 · +67% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 14 buy or overweight
  • 8 hold
  • 0 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 30.5× of 13 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
RRXRegal Rexnord Corporation$10B31.0×12.0×37.8%5.3%5%
CRCrane Company$12B35.3×22.5×41.7%13.0%16%
DCIDonaldson Company, Inc.$10B22.1×17.9×34.6%11.7%28%
EPACEnerpac Tool Group Corp.$2B20.2×12.8×49.0%14.7%22%
FELEFranklin Electric Co., Inc.$4B27.7×16.4×35.5%7.1%12%
FLSFlowserve Corporation$10B26.4×15.5×35.1%8.0%17%
GGGGraco Inc.$12B23.9×16.4×52.6%23.5%20%
GRCThe Gorman-Rupp Company$2B31.6×16.9×30.6%8.9%15%
IEXIDEX Corporation$17B32.8×20.0×44.7%14.5%13%
IRIngersoll Rand Inc.$29B30.5×16.7×37.9%12.1%9%
ITTITT Inc.$19B41.8×25.0×34.6%8.9%10%
KAIKadant Inc.$3B29.5×12.4×44.4%9.5%11%
MIDDThe Middleby Corporation$5B——38.0%-13.2%-18%
NPOEnPro Industries, Inc.$7B149.6×35.4×42.8%3.6%3%
WTSWatts Water Technologies, Inc.$12B30.9×19.1×48.8%14.3%19%

The median is of the 13 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 1.5% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY14 109.0×FY25 33.3×

What its sector has traded at

Industrials
FY14 173.5×FY26 32.6×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Every estimate on one scale

price $154.21
52-week range$128 – $248
Analyst targets$240 – $286
At sector P/E (45×)$217

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.