Republic Services, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Republic Services remains a high-quality waste-management compounder with a 20.0% operating margin and $2.409B in FY2025 free cash flow, but the stock has rallied to $231.54 with an RSI of 74.3 as of 16 Oct, making the 32.8x P/E — essentially in line with WM at 32.0x — difficult to justify against FY2025 revenue growth of just 3.5% and EPS growth of 5.6%.
Cascade Investment's relentless open-market accumulation (net 6.28M shares worth $1.385B over 24 months, including purchases at $221–224 on September 10–11, 2026) and a Q2 2026 revenue reacceleration to 4.6% YoY with an EPS beat are constructive, but the overbought technical setup and decelerating fundamental growth profile argue against adding at these levels. Q3 2026 earnings on October 29 will be the key test of whether the raised 2026 outlook justifies current pricing.
What could go wrong
- Overbought technical reversal. RSI at 74.3 as of 16 Oct with the stock at $231.54, well above the 50-day MA of $218.35 and 200-day MA of $215.50, leaves the stock vulnerable to a pullback on any disappointment.
- Valuation vs. growth deceleration. FY2025 revenue growth slowed to 3.5% from 7.1% in FY2024, and EPS growth decelerated to 5.6% from 18.7%, yet the P/E of 32.8x prices in sustained double-digit growth.
- Rising debt burden. Total debt increased to $13.806B in FY2025 from $12.957B in FY2024, and Zacks flagged rising interest costs as a challenge to financial flexibility.
- P/S premium to peers. P/S of 4.2x is a 35.2% premium to the peer median of 3.1x, the widest valuation gap among the three multiples tracked.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY25 fundamentals · FY24 and FY25 fundamentals · technicals, 16 Oct · peer comparison. Orin's read on RSG; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 6.6% over twelve months, from $221.04 on 27 Oct 2025 to $235.66 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $241.90 on 22 Oct 2026; the last close is 2.6% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 4.0M, on 19 Dec 2025).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All RSG filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $3.8B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.8B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $2.1B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.5B | 0.1% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $1.4B | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $1.0B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.0B | 0.1% |
| FMR | $968.3M | 0.0% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $787.7M | 0.0% |
| Bank of America | $682.6M | 0.0% |
101 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 514 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net $1.4B. Of the 50 on hand, 18 were open-market purchases and 0 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about RSG
Orin answers questions about RSG from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 33.4× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 4 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 30.9×); the typical Industrials company on the NYSE is at 33.7×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 33.4×above usual | 30.9× | 33.7× |
| P/S | 4.27×above usual | 3.94× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.3×near usual | 15.7× | — |
| P/B | 6.0×above usual | 5.0× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $235 (from $219 to $244) — 0% below the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$235
$219 – $244 · −0% against the last close
- 9 buy or overweight
- 8 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 33.4× its last 12 months of profit. Only 1 of the 3 companies it is compared to have a P/E that says something (WM 30.8×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RSGRepublic Services, Inc. | $72B | 33.4× | 15.3× | 39.1% | 12.9% | 18% |
| CWSTCasella Waste Systems, Inc. | $6B | n/m | 18.3× | 25.4% | 0.3% | 0% |
| GFLGFL Environmental Inc. | $16B | lost money | 17.6× | 20.0% | −3.3% | −3% |
| WMWaste Management, Inc. | $94B | 30.8× | 12.8× | 27.3% | 11.8% | 31% |
- CWST: P/E is not meaningful (n/m) — its profit over the last 12 months is so small against its price that the ratio says little.
- GFL: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 33.4× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now33.4×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Industrials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 33.7× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now33.7×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $247 a share — 4% above the $236.14 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $247 | 4% above $236.14 |
| Levered | $202 | 15% below $236.14 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.