Republic Services, Inc. RSG
Republic Services is a defensively positioned waste-management franchise with stable operating margins near 20% and $2.4B in 2025 free cash flow, but revenue growth has decelerated to 3.49% and EPS growth slowed to 5.55% in fiscal 2025, making the 31.3x P/E (a ~5% premium to the peer median of 29.8x) difficult to justify on fundamentals alone. The EV/EBITDA of 14.6x does trade at a ~14% discount to peers, and Cascade Investment's sustained open-market buying—net 2.06M shares worth $425.9M over 24 months including purchases on August 19–21, 2026—is a meaningful vote of confidence.
However, the smart-money score is essentially flat at 0.0021 as of Q2 2026, and the raised 2026 outlook relies on pricing offsetting softer volumes, which leaves limited margin for error. The stock is fairly valued with supportive insider flows but insufficient growth momentum to warrant a new position at current levels.
What could go wrong
- Volume softness persists. The raised 2026 outlook depends on pricing strength offsetting softer volumes; if volume weakness deepens, pricing alone may not sustain revenue growth that already decelerated to 3.49% in 2025.
- Valuation compression. RSG trades at a 31.3x P/E versus a peer median of 29.8x; any disappointment in guidance could trigger multiple contraction given the premium.
- Gross margin anomaly. Gross margin jumped from 30.55% in 2024 to 41.96% in 2025 while operating margin was essentially flat (20.11% to 20.02%), suggesting a cost reclassification rather than genuine operational improvement, which could reverse or be misinterpreted.
- Leverage remains elevated. Total debt stood at $13.806B at year-end 2025, up from $12.957B in 2024, against stockholders' equity of $11.968B, keeping the balance sheet leveraged.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: derived_metrics FY2025 · derived_metrics FY2025 · fundamentals FY2025 · derived_metrics FY2025 and FY2024. Orin's read on RSG; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All RSG filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.8B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $2.1B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.5B | 0.1% of fund |
| Price T Rowe Associates /Md/ | $1.4B | 0.1% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $1.0B | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.0B | 0.1% of fund |
98 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 482 Form 4 filings, net $1.4B. Of the 50 on hand, 47 were open-market purchases and 0 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about RSG
Orin answers questions about RSG from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 30.2× | 30.9× | 44.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.2× | 15.1× | — |
| P/S | 3.88× | 3.94× | — |
| P/B | 5.4× | 5.0× | — |
Its P/E sits 40th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.27σ from its own mean).
11.9%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $2.4B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$237
$232 – $249 · +11% against today's price
- 19 buy or overweight
- 16 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RSGRepublic Services, Inc. | $66B | 30.2× | 14.2× | 39.1% | 12.9% | 18% |
| CMICummins Inc. | $72B | 26.7× | 15.6× | 25.3% | 7.8% | 22% |
| CSXCSX Corporation | $87B | 27.3× | 15.8× | 54.9% | 22.2% | 24% |
| FDXFedEx Corporation | $69B | 15.9× | 9.3× | 22.9% | 4.7% | 15% |
| ITWIllinois Tool Works Inc. | $79B | 24.7× | 18.9× | 44.2% | 19.4% | 102% |
| NSCNorfolk Southern Corporation | $71B | 26.9× | 15.9× | 53.7% | 21.0% | 17% |
| PWRQuanta Services, Inc. | $95B | 71.8× | 33.5× | 14.4% | 4.1% | 15% |
| WMWaste Management, Inc. | $83B | 29.3× | 14.1× | 35.0% | 11.1% | 29% |
The median is of the 7 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 12.3% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $244 | $212.38 · +15% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $207 | $212.38 · −3% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.