RTX Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
RTX delivered a strong Q3 2026 beat with adjusted EPS of $2.26 versus a $1.78 estimate and adjusted sales of approximately $25 billion, up 11% year-over-year, alongside a $340 billion backlog and a raised full-year outlook.
However, the stock trades at 33.4x earnings — a 36.5% premium to the peer median of 24.5x — and sits below both its 50-day ($198.9) and 200-day ($195.1) moving averages at $193.34, while persistent insider selling (net disposition of approximately 280K shares worth roughly $53M over 24 months) and a smart-money score of just 0.06 as of Q2 2026 signal limited institutional conviction. With political headwinds from a potential Democratic sweep threatening defense spending, the valuation premium leaves little room for error despite excellent operational momentum.
What could go wrong
- Valuation premium. PE of 33.4x sits 36.5% above the peer median of 24.5x; PS of 2.77x is 63.7% above the peer median of 1.69x, limiting upside even with strong execution.
- Political headwind. News coverage on 20 Oct notes defense stocks tumbling as Wall Street prices in a Democratic sweep of Congress, which could pressure defense budgets and program awards.
- Insider dispositions. Over 24 months, insiders net disposed approximately 280K shares worth approximately $53M with only 1 acquisition transaction and no cluster buying.
- Technical weakness. Stock at $193.34 trades below both the 50-day MA ($198.9) and 200-day MA ($195.1), with RSI at 54.8 showing no momentum catalyst.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: earnings vs estimates, 20 Oct · news, 20 Oct · peer comparison · insider trades. Orin's read on RTX; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 8.6% over twelve months, from $179.24 on 27 Oct 2025 to $194.60 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $225.49 on 18 Aug 2026; the last close is 13.7% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 12.5M, on 2 Mar 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
- Rose flags: large share sales by the company's own officers and directors, from the Form 4 each one files after trading.
On file
All RTX filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $21.0B | 0.3% |
| State Street | $18.1B | 0.5% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $16.7B | 0.4% |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $9.9B | 1.4% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $7.0B | 0.4% |
| Geode Capital Management | $6.3B | 0.3% |
| Morgan Stanley | $5.9B | 0.3% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $5.0B | 0.2% |
| Bank of America | $4.6B | 0.3% |
| Norges Bank | $3.8B | 0.4% |
165 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 148 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$53.0M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 17 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about RTX
Orin answers questions about RTX from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 31.2× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 1 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 33.5×); the typical Industrials company on the NYSE is at 33.7×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 31.2×below usual | 33.5× | 33.7× |
| P/S | 2.74×above usual | 2.01× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.4×above usual | 15.3× | — |
| P/B | 3.8×above usual | 2.1× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $232 (from $208 to $250) — 19% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$232
$208 – $250 · +19% against the last close
- 9 buy or overweight
- 4 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 31.2× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 7 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 22.0×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RTXRTX Corporation | $263B | 31.2× | 17.4× | 21.1% | 8.9% | 13% |
| BAThe Boeing Company | $133B | 17.6× | 14.1× | 9.4% | 8.1% | 127% |
| GDGeneral Dynamics Corporation | $96B | 21.3× | 15.1× | 15.4% | 8.2% | 17% |
| GEGE Aerospace | $309B | 34.2× | 24.9× | 35.2% | 17.3% | 51% |
| LHXL3Harris Technologies, Inc. | $48B | 26.0× | 14.5× | 25.5% | 8.2% | 9% |
| LMTLockheed Martin Corporation | $144B | 22.0× | 15.1× | 11.7% | 8.2% | 79% |
| NOCNorthrop Grumman Corporation | $78B | 17.4× | 12.3× | 20.0% | 10.4% | 26% |
| TDGTransDigm Group Incorporated | $62B | 34.3× | 18.4× | 59.6% | 21.3% | n/m |
- TDG: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 31.2× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now31.2×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Industrials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 33.7× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now33.7×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $198 a share — 1% above the $196.45 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $198 | 1% above $196.45 |
| Levered | $177 | 10% below $196.45 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.