RTX Corporation RTX
RTX's FY2025 results show genuine operational acceleration — operating margin expanded to 10.5% from 8.1%, EPS grew 39.7% to $4.96, and FCF reached $7.9B, supported by a $289B defense backlog. But at $211.71 the stock trades at 36.8x earnings (11% above the peer median of 33.2x), smart money conviction has collapsed to 0.003 from 0.253 as of the Q2 2026 13F cycle, and MACD is in bearish crossover with the histogram at -2.07.
The fundamental trajectory warrants holding existing positions, but the valuation premium and fading institutional momentum argue against adding at current levels.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. PE at 36.8x is an 11% premium to the peer median of 33.2x; any growth disappointment could trigger multiple contraction.
- Smart money deterioration. Smart money score dropped from 0.253 to 0.003 in one quarter as of Q2 2026 13F filings; continued institutional outflows could pressure shares.
- Insider selling pressure. Recent insider transactions in July–August 2026 skew toward dispositions at $210–224 per share, including sales by the EVP General Counsel and SVP Treasurer.
- Momentum reversal. MACD line at 1.07 is below signal at 3.15 with a negative histogram of -2.07; a break below the 50-day moving average at $205.85 could accelerate downside.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: derived_metrics FY2025 and FY2024 · derived_metrics FY2025 and fundamentals FY2025 · fundamentals FY2025 · Seeking Alpha news article, 2026-08-25. Orin's read on RTX; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All RTX filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| State Street | $18.1B | 0.5% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $16.7B | 0.4% of fund |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $9.9B | 1.4% of fund |
| Jpmorgan Chase & | $7.0B | 0.4% of fund |
| Brasada Capital Management | $6.3B | 1.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $6.3B | 0.3% of fund |
162 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 142 Form 4 filings, net $20.1M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 18 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about RTX
Orin answers questions about RTX from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 33.4× | 33.4× | 44.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.0× | 19.3× | — |
| P/S | 2.77× | 2.01× | — |
| P/B | 3.9× | 2.1× | — |
Its P/E sits 40th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.09σ from its own mean).
14.4%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $7.9B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$238
$215 – $250 · +24% against today's price
- 17 buy or overweight
- 9 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RTXRTX Corporation | $259B | 33.4× | 18.0× | 20.3% | 8.3% | 12% |
| BAThe Boeing Company | $158B | 74.9× | 28.3× | 4.7% | 2.6% | 105% |
| CATCaterpillar Inc. | $374B | 34.8× | 23.7× | 33.9% | 14.5% | 54% |
| DRSLeonardo DRS, Inc. | $10B | 31.2× | 21.0× | 24.9% | 8.5% | 12% |
| ETNEaton Corporation plc | $170B | 44.5× | 29.6× | 35.9% | 12.8% | 20% |
| GDGeneral Dynamics Corporation | $93B | 20.6× | 15.2× | 15.4% | 8.2% | 17% |
| GEGE Aerospace | $332B | 37.5× | 28.0× | 35.4% | 17.7% | 49% |
| LHXL3Harris Technologies, Inc. | $45B | 24.0× | 14.6× | 25.5% | 8.2% | 9% |
| LMTLockheed Martin Corporation | $121B | 19.3× | 14.0× | 11.8% | 8.2% | 86% |
| NOCNorthrop Grumman Corporation | $73B | 16.3× | 11.7× | 20.1% | 10.5% | 27% |
| TDGTransDigm Group Incorporated | $62B | 33.5× | 18.6× | 59.6% | 21.3% | -21% |
The median is of the 10 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 3.3% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $253 | $179.67 · +41% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $228 | $179.67 · +27% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.