Sunrun Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Sunrun's operational turnaround is real but not yet de-risked enough to buy.
FY2025 revenue surged 45.1% to $2.96B with gross margin expanding to 26.8%, and Q2 2026 revenue grew 52.8% YoY to $870M with operating income of $34.8M — yet the stock trades at $7.64, below both its 50-day ($8.87) and 200-day ($13.28) moving averages, reflecting persistent balance-sheet concerns: $14.9B in total debt against $3.1B equity and FCF still negative at -$423M in FY2025. The 4.47x P/E looks cheap versus ENPH's 32.17x, but insiders continue selling across the C-suite (net -2.09M shares over 24 months) and smart money conviction is near zero (SM score 0.01 as of 30 Jun), so the discount is justified until cash flow inflects positive.
What could go wrong
- Debt overhang. Total debt of $14.9B against stockholders' equity of $3.1B as of FY2025 leaves the balance sheet highly leveraged; rising borrowing costs pressure the solar sector broadly.
- Persistent negative free cash flow. FCF was -$423M in FY2025 despite the revenue and margin improvement; the business model still consumes cash, making it vulnerable to financing shocks.
- Insider selling. Net insider dispositions of 2.09M shares ($31.7M) over 24 months, with CEO, CFO, CAO, CRO, and CLO all selling on October 6, 2026 — no cluster buying detected.
- Earnings quality skepticism. FY2025 net income of $450M and EPS of $1.71 coexist with negative operating cash flow of -$421M, suggesting reported earnings are driven by non-cash items rather than cash generation.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY25 fundamentals · Q2 2026 results · peer comparison · insider trades, last 24 months. Orin's read on RUN; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 63.3% over twelve months, from $20.51 on 27 Oct 2025 to $7.53 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $21.41 on 28 Jan 2026; the last close is 64.8% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 56.5M, on 27 Feb 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All RUN filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $553.5M | 0.0% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $256.7M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $183.0M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $140.3M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $138.1M | 0.0% |
| D. E. Shaw | $136.8M | 0.1% |
| Invesco | $135.9M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $85.7M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $72.5M | 0.0% |
| Two Sigma Investments | $67.5M | 0.0% |
68 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 221 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$30.6M. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 32 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about RUN
Orin answers questions about RUN from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 4.3× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close) — below its usual level (19.3×); the typical Technology company on the NASDAQ is at 46.1×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 4.3×below usual | 19.3× | 46.1× |
| P/S | 0.61×below usual | 1.88× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.8× | — | — |
| P/B | 0.6×below usual | 0.8× | — |
- EV/EBITDA: no usual level — it ran from 9.2× to 265× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $14.45 (from $7 to $20) — 92% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$14.45
$7 – $20 · +92% against the last close
- 11 buy or overweight
- 8 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 4.3× its last 12 months of profit. Only 1 of the 1 companies it is compared to made a profit (ENPH 43.1×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RUNSunrun Inc. | $2B | 4.3× | 13.8× | 37.1% | 3.9% | 4% |
| ENPHEnphase Energy, Inc. | $4B | 43.1× | 27.5× | 45.8% | 7.5% | 8% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 4.3× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now4.3×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Technology companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 46.1× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now46.1×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
It spends more cash than it brings in, so a cash-flow model gives no usable value (both versions come out below zero).
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.