Sunrun Inc. RUN
Sunrun's FY2025 turnaround is real on paper — revenue grew 45% to $2.96B, gross margin expanded to 26.8%, and net income swung to $450M positive from a $2.85B loss — but the company still generated negative operating cash flow of -$421M and carries $14.9B in total debt against just $3.1B in equity as of the year ended 2025-12-31. Q2 2026 earnings beat consensus at $0.42 vs $0.08, yet management cut full-year guidance and Goldman Sachs reduced its price target from $18 to $15, sending shares to $9.80 as of 2026-08-19, below both the 50-day ($11.57) and 200-day ($15.12) moving averages.
With insiders persistently selling — the CEO, CFO, CRO, and other officers all disposed of shares in July 2026 — and smart money conviction near zero (SM score 0.0053 as of 2026-06-30), the fundamental recovery remains unproven on a cash basis despite the deeply discounted 5.7x P/E versus ENPH's 38.6x.
What could go wrong
- Debt overhang. Total debt of $14.9B against stockholders' equity of $3.1B as of FY2025 creates refinancing and solvency risk if cash generation stalls.
- Persistent insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months insiders net sold $34.6M in shares, with the CEO, CFO, CRO, and other officers all disposing in July 2026 at roughly $13 per share.
- Negative cash flow. FY2025 operating cash flow was -$421M and free cash flow was -$423M despite the net income swing to positive, indicating the earnings recovery has not translated to cash.
- Guidance cut signals demand pressure. Management cut full-year 2026 guidance despite a Q2 earnings beat, and Goldman Sachs lowered its price target from $18 to $15.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals + derived_metrics, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · FMP annual fundamentals, fiscal years ended 2025-12-31 and 2024-12-31 · FMP annual fundamentals, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · Zacks via news, published 2026-08-05. Orin's read on RUN; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All RUN filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs Group | $256.7M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $183.0M | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $140.3M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $138.1M | 0.0% of fund |
| D. E. Shaw & | $136.8M | 0.1% of fund |
| Invesco | $135.9M | 0.0% of fund |
67 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 225 Form 4 filings, net −$32.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 30 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about RUN
Orin answers questions about RUN from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 4.5× | — | 53.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 23.0× | — | — |
| P/S | 0.53× | — | — |
| P/B | 0.5× | — | — |
What Wall Street published
$17
$13 – $20 · +110% against today's price
- 23 buy or overweight
- 13 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RUNSunrun Inc. | $2B | 4.5× | 23.0× | 34.5% | 2.3% | 2% |
| ENPHEnphase Energy, Inc. | $4B | 32.2× | 24.9× | 46.9% | 10.1% | 12% |
The median is of the 1 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 85.9% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.