RXO, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
RXO's freight-cycle recovery thesis is tracking — Q2 2026 operating income turned positive at $1M with revenue of $1.774B (up 25% YoY), and the September 9 brokerage update highlighted stronger-than-anticipated truckload gross profit per load with spot representing approximately 50% of full-truckload volume.
However, the stock has rallied to $28.65, well above its 50-day MA of $21.26 and 200-day MA of $19.63, with an RSI of 81.7 signaling extreme overbought conditions. With the company still posting a net loss of $9M in Q2 2026 and negative FCF of $8M for FY2025, the current price already discounts much of the cyclical improvement, making this a wait-for-a-pullback situation rather than a chase.
What could go wrong
- Extreme overbought technicals. RSI of 81.7 as of 5 Oct with the stock at $28.65 versus a 50-day MA of $21.26 and 200-day MA of $19.63 suggests significant mean-reversion risk.
- Still loss-making. Q2 2026 net income was -$9M and FY2025 net income was -$100M; the company has not yet demonstrated sustained profitability.
- Freight cycle reversal. The positive brokerage update relies on spot market strength (approximately 50% of volume); any softening in spot rates could reverse the gross-profit-per-load momentum highlighted on September 9.
- Balance sheet leverage. Total debt of $670M as of FY2025 against stockholders' equity of $1.541B limits financial flexibility if the cycle turns.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q2 2026 results · FY25 fundamentals · technicals, 5 Oct · news, 9 Sep. Orin's read on RXO; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 64.4% over twelve months, from $17.70 on 27 Oct 2025 to $29.10 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $29.30 on 21 Jul 2026; the last close is 0.7% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 20.7M, on 5 Oct 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All RXO filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $693.5M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $256.3M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $205.0M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $183.7M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $117.8M | 0.0% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $72.1M | 0.0% |
| Maple Rock Capital Partners | $71.3M | 1.4% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $54.7M | 0.0% |
| Northern Trust | $47.2M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $47.1M | 0.0% |
55 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 162 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net $6.9M. Of the 50 on hand, none was an open-market trade — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about RXO
Orin answers questions about RXO from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E (Tue 27 Oct close). It is priced at 0.79× its yearly sales. It has too few years of its own for a usual level.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | lost money | — | 33.7× |
| P/S | 0.79× | — | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 290× | — | — |
| P/B | 3.3× | — | — |
- Listed on 27 Oct 2022 — earlier years are not shown.
- So it has no full fiscal year of its own on file yet — no usual level.
- P/E: lost money — no P/E over the last 12 months.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $26.11 (from $18 to $31) — 10% below the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$26.11
$18 – $31 · −10% against the last close
- 4 buy or overweight
- 11 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E. Only 2 of the 4 companies it is compared to made a profit (ABM 19.3×, MGRC 19.2×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RXORXO, Inc. | $5B | lost money | 290× | 13.6% | −1.7% | −7% |
| ABMABM Industries Inc. | $3B | 19.3× | 11.2× | 11.7% | 1.8% | 9% |
| AMPXAmprius Technologies, Inc. | $1B | lost money | n/m | 22.3% | −35.2% | −35% |
| MGRCMcGrath RentCorp | $3B | 19.2× | 10.1× | 46.9% | 16.4% | 12% |
| PCTPureCycle Technologies, Inc. | $378M | lost money | n/m | −792.6% | below −1,000% | −186% |
- AMPX, PCT: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- AMPX, PCT: EV/EBITDA is not meaningful (n/m) — its cash exceeds its market value plus debt, or the business lost money before depreciation.
- PCT: net margin below −1,000% — it lost about $14 for each $1 of sales.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
It has lost money and has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so it has no P/E history.
- Nowlost money
- Now: no P/E — it lost money over the last 12 months.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Industrials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 33.7× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now33.7×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $2 a share — 93% below the $28.82 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Levered | $2 | 93% below $28.82 |
- Standard: comes out below zero, so it is not shown.
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.