EchoStar Corporation SATS
EchoStar is a hold following a transformative but deeply mixed quarter: the $23B AT&T spectrum sale closed on July 28, 2026, providing major liquidity, while Hughes Network Systems filed for Chapter 11 the same week — leaving the company as essentially a SpaceX proxy with a cash pile and a bankrupt operating core. Q2 2026 revenue of $3.58B still declined from $3.72B a year earlier, but Adjusted OIBDA improved to $681.2M from $279.6M, suggesting underlying cost rationalization even as divisions collapse.
With FY2025 showing a -$14.5B net loss, -$1.07B FCF, and $31.0B total debt against just $5.8B equity, the fundamentals remain distressed, but the stock at $91.89 has stabilized above its prior lows and the spectrum cash changes the survival calculus. Smart money turned negative (score -0.03 as of Q2 2026, down from +0.30 in Q1) and insiders are net sellers (-4.8M shares over 24 months), tempering any bullish read.
What could go wrong
- Bankruptcy contagion. Hughes filed Chapter 11 on Aug 3, 2026; Seeking Alpha notes every major division — satellite broadband, pay-TV, and mobile — is in or facing bankruptcy, with unresolved tower lawsuit liabilities.
- Debt overhang. FY2025 total debt of $31.0B against equity of only $5.8B, with FCF of -$1.07B; even the $23B spectrum proceeds may not fully address the capital structure.
- Revenue erosion. Revenue has declined four straight years from $19.8B (FY2021) to $15.0B (FY2025), with Q2 2026 revenue of $3.58B still down from $3.72B year-over-year.
- Speculative valuation floor. The stock trades largely on a SpaceX proxy thesis; if that narrative weakens or implied SpaceX stake value is challenged, there is limited fundamental support at current $91.89.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Reuters news article, 2026-07-28 · WSJ news article, 2026-08-03 · GlobeNewsWire press release / Seeking Alpha, 2026-08-03 · FMP annual fundamentals, FY2025. Orin's read on SATS; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-06-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All SATS filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| State Street | $1.1B | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $897.4M | 0.0% of fund |
| Wellington Management Group Llp | $853.3M | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $598.9M | 0.0% of fund |
| Darsana Capital Partners | $507.5M | 2.3% of fund |
| Arini Captial Management | $491.2M | 33.7% of fund |
109 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 182 Form 4 filings, net −$84.4M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 9 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about SATS
Orin answers questions about SATS from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/S | 1.71× | 0.26× | — |
| P/B | 1.8× | 0.3× | — |
Its P/E sits 20th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.33σ from its own mean).
What Wall Street published
$160
$155 – $165 · +84% against today's price
- 6 buy or overweight
- 4 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SATSEchoStar Corporation | $25B | — | — | 29.5% | -38.7% | -70% |
| KNKnowles Corporation | $3B | 46.5× | 24.8× | 42.3% | 10.6% | 9% |
| SCSCScanSource, Inc. | $1B | 15.7× | 9.4× | 13.6% | 2.4% | 9% |
| VSATViasat, Inc. | $10B | — | 8.6× | 30.4% | -0.6% | -1% |
The median is of the 2 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $-180 | $116.12 · −255% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $-124 | $116.12 · −206% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.