Starbucks Corporation SBUX
Starbucks remains a hold as the Niccol turnaround narrative is gaining traction — technicals have improved with price at $107.69 above both the 50-day ($103.46) and 200-day ($95.95) moving averages, MACD histogram turned positive (+0.30), and smart money scores have recovered from -0.12 in September 2025 to +0.086 by March 2026 with fund count rising from 37 to 57. However, FY2025 financials remain deeply impaired: EPS collapsed 51% to $1.63, operating income fell 34% to $3.58B, and gross profit declined 7.5% to $8.98B despite revenue only edging up 2.8% to $37.2B.
At 61.9x trailing earnings — a 115% premium to the peer median of 28.7x — the stock prices in a margin recovery that has not yet appeared in reported results, while insiders remain net sellers at -$8.2M over 24 months with no cluster buys.
What could go wrong
- Margin recovery stalls. FY2025 gross profit fell 7.5% to $8.98B and operating income dropped 34% to $3.58B; if Niccol's initiatives don't restore margins soon, the 61.9x PE becomes increasingly unjustifiable.
- Valuation premium. SBUX trades at 61.9x trailing earnings versus a peer median of 28.7x — a 115% premium — leaving little room for disappointment on any earnings print.
- Insider selling persists. Insiders have net sold $8.2M over 24 months across 31 dispositions versus 22 acquisitions, with no cluster buys; recent sales by CEO International Brewer at $100–106 suggest limited insider conviction.
- Leverage and negative equity. Total debt rose to $26.6B in FY2025 while stockholders' equity is -$8.1B, constraining financial flexibility if the turnaround takes longer than expected.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP fundamentals FY2025 vs FY2024 · FMP fundamentals FY2025 vs FY2024 · FMP fundamentals FY2025 vs FY2024 · peer_relative composite. Orin's read on SBUX; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All SBUX filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Capital Research Global Investors | $11.2B | 1.6% of fund |
| Capital World Investors | $9.3B | 1.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $7.6B | 0.2% of fund |
| State Street | $5.0B | 0.1% of fund |
| Invesco | $3.9B | 0.3% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $3.1B | 0.1% of fund |
124 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 56 Form 4 filings, net −$14.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 12 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about SBUX
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Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 54.1× | 29.6× | 79.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.5× | 18.9× | — |
| P/S | 2.80× | 3.01× | — |
Its P/E sits above all 5 of the last 5 years (+2.12σ from its own mean).
18.4%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $2.4B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$116
$97 – $130 · +23% against today's price
- 28 buy or overweight
- 28 hold
- 3 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SBUXStarbucks Corporation | $107B | 54.1× | 21.5× | 31.7% | 5.2% | -24% |
| ABNBAirbnb, Inc. | $89B | 33.8× | 28.0× | 78.0% | 20.4% | 33% |
| CMGChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. | $42B | 30.0× | 20.7× | 24.1% | 11.4% | 53% |
| CVNACarvana Co. | $70B | 22.1× | — | 19.4% | 6.3% | 47% |
| MARMarriott International, Inc. | $92B | 36.6× | 23.1× | 20.2% | 9.6% | -67% |
| NKENIKE, Inc. | $53B | 17.2× | 12.1× | 42.9% | 6.7% | 22% |
| ORLYO'Reilly Automotive, Inc. | $71B | 27.1× | 19.9× | 51.6% | 14.3% | -232% |
| RCLRoyal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. | $62B | 14.2× | 11.7× | 46.6% | 23.6% | 44% |
The median is of the 7 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 99.7% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $47 | $98.70 · −53% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $48 | $98.70 · −52% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.