SCHWNYSE·Financial - Capital Markets

The Charles Schwab Corporation SCHW

Market cap $173.0BP/E 18.0× trailingGross margin 86.7%Reports Thu 15 Oct, before the open

$99.45

−0.05 (−0.05%)live 09:30 ET

52-wk $83.96 – $114.53

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Orin's take

0.62conviction · moderate

Refreshed 26 Aug · take v7. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

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Schwab's FY2025 fundamentals are strong — EPS of $4.66 (up 55.85% YoY), total debt reduced from $45.13B to $30.95B, and FCF of $8.76B — but the stock at $112.27 is extended above its 50-day MA of $102.34 with RSI at 66.74, continuing the rally that prompted the prior hold call. The EV/EBITDA of 12.55x remains a meaningful discount to the 24.10x peer median, yet insiders have sold a net 4,806,855 shares over 24 months and the smart money score is only marginally positive at 0.0438 as of the quarter ended 2026-06-30.

The fundamental trajectory and cheap EV/EBITDA argue against selling, but persistent insider selling and an overbought technical setup favor patience for a pullback entry.

What could go wrong

Technical extension. Stock at $112.27 trades above both the 50-day MA of $102.34 and 200-day MA of $96.86 with RSI at 66.74, leaving limited upside before overbought conditions intensify.
Persistent insider selling. Over 24 months insiders net sold 4,806,855 shares valued at approximately $359.8M, with Charles Schwab himself selling 46,410 shares at $108.176 on 2026-08-12 and additional dispositions through 2026-08-18.
Valuation premium on earnings. PE of 20.34x sits 16.7% above the peer median of 17.43x, and PS of 6.50x is 140% above the peer median of 2.70x, limiting multiple expansion upside.
Institutional flow fragility. Smart money score of 0.0438 as of 2026-06-30 is only slightly positive and fund count declined from 70 to 67 quarter-over-quarter, suggesting waning institutional conviction.

What would change my mind

Pullback to 50-day MA. Stock retreats toward the $102.34 50-day moving average, improving the risk-reward entry point.bullish

Insider buying reversal. Insiders shift from net selling to open-market purchases, signaling confidence at current levels.bullish

Smart money deterioration. Smart money score turns negative in the next 13F filing period, confirming institutional outflows.bearish

RSI breakout above 70. RSI exceeds 70 on sustained volume, indicating further overbought extension that increases pullback risk.bearish

Where this comes from: FMP FY2025 fundamentals and derived_metrics · FMP FY2024 and FY2025 fundamentals · FMP FY2025 fundamentals · Technicals as of 2026-08-25. Orin's read on SCHW; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

On file

All SCHW filings

Form	Filed	What it says	Read
8-K	12 Aug	The Charles Schwab Corporation issued $1.25 billion of 5.108% Fixed-to-Floating Rate Senior Notes due 2032 and $1.35 billion of 5.655% Fixed-to-Floating Rate Senior Notes due…	read
10-Q	7 Aug	Net income available to common stockholders was $2.68 billion for the three months ended June 30, 2026, a 36% increase year-over-year, and $5.08 billion for the six months ended…	read
8-K	21 Jul	The Charles Schwab Corporation announced its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, on July 21, 2026.	read
8-K	29 Jun	The Charles Schwab Corporation issued $1,000,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 4.603% Fixed-to-Floating Rate Senior Notes due 2029 on June 25, 2026.	read
8-K	1 Jun	The Charles Schwab Corporation filed a Certificate of Elimination for its 4.000% Fixed-Rate Reset Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, Series I on June 1, 2026.	read
8-K	22 May	The Charles Schwab Corporation's 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders on May 21, 2026, resulted in the election of all director nominees and approval of the independent auditor…	read
8-K	21 May	The Charles Schwab Corporation issued $1,000,000,000 of 4.744% Senior Notes due 2030 and $1,250,000,000 of 5.493% Senior Notes due 2037, for total proceeds of approximately $2,236…	read
10-Q	8 May	Net income jumped 30% YoY to $2.48 billion in 1Q26, driving diluted EPS up 38% to $1.37.	read

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow

Filer	Position	Of fund
Vanguard Capital Management	$9.9B	0.2% of fund
State Street	$6.8B	0.2% of fund
Jpmorgan Chase &	$4.5B	0.2% of fund
Fmr	$4.1B	0.2% of fund
Price T Rowe Associates /Md/	$4.0B	0.4% of fund
Geode Capital Management	$3.4B	0.2% of fund

131 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 367 Form 4 filings, net −$397.9M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 24 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

vs its own 5y · Financial Services

Metric	Now	Own median	Sector
P/E	18.0×	22.8×	21.6×
EV/EBITDA	11.0×	14.5×	—
P/S	5.76×	6.40×	—
P/B	3.5×	3.1×	—

Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−2.16σ from its own mean).

What the price assumes

7.5%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $8.8B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

51 firms · 2026-09-23

Consensus target

$127

$105 – $145 · +27% against today's price

How they rate it

29 buy or overweight
19 hold
3 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 16.0× of 7 peers

Company	Market cap	P/E	EV/EBITDA	Gross	Net	ROE
SCHWThe Charles Schwab Corporation	$173B	18.0×	11.0×	86.7%	33.6%	20%
BACBank of America Corporation	$397B	12.7×	24.1×	59.3%	17.2%	11%
BLKBlackRock, Inc.	$164B	25.0×	15.8×	55.7%	24.1%	12%
BXBlackstone Inc.	$144B	26.5×	18.5×	88.8%	21.9%	41%
CCitigroup Inc.	$226B	14.0×	23.1×	46.6%	10.2%	8%
GSThe Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.	$276B	14.3×	26.5×	57.3%	17.8%	17%
HOODRobinhood Markets, Inc.	$110B	53.1×	54.1×	81.5%	42.0%	23%
MSMorgan Stanley	$313B	16.0×	23.1×	59.7%	16.0%	18%

The median is of the 7 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 13.0% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year

FY14 31.4×FY25 21.3×

What its sector has traded at

Financial Services

FY14 29.6×FY26 23.9×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Discounted cash flow

not recomputed since

Model	Fair value	Against	Computed
Standard DCF	$67	$89.74 · −25%	2026-06-10
Levered DCF	$73	$89.74 · −19%	2026-06-10

The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.

Every estimate on one scale

price $99.45

52-week range$84 – $115

Analyst targets$105 – $145

Standard DCF$67 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $89.74

Levered DCF$73 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $89.74

At own 5y-median P/E (23×)$126

At 5y P/E range (20–27×)$110 – $150

At sector P/E (22×)$119

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.