SHWNYSE·Chemicals - Specialty

The Sherwin-Williams Company SHW

Market cap $79.0BP/E 29.8× trailingGross margin 49.1%Reports Tue 27 Oct, before the open

$325.33

−1.13 (−0.34%)live 09:30 ET

52-wk $289.86 – $377.77

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Orin's take

0.58conviction · moderate

Refreshed 31 Aug · take v8. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

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Sherwin-Williams remains a hold as the stock trades at a 30.9x P/E — roughly 94% above the peer median of 16.0x — despite FY2025 EPS declining 2.65% to $10.27 on just 2.06% revenue growth to $23.6B. Free cash flow improved to $2.65B and gross margin expanded to 48.9%, but net income fell 4.21% to $2.57B as total debt rose to $12.9B and the stock has slipped below its 50-day MA ($342.70) with a negative MACD histogram.

The best-in-class franchise and modest smart-money inflows (SM score 0.13 as of Q2 2026) provide downside support, but the valuation premium is difficult to justify alongside declining earnings and tepid top-line growth.

What could go wrong

Valuation compression. At 30.9x P/E and 21.6x EV/EBITDA — 94% and 81% above peer medians respectively — any multiple de-rating on slower growth or rising rates could drive material downside.
Earnings erosion. FY2025 EPS fell to $10.27 from $10.55 and net income declined 4.21% to $2.57B despite revenue growth; persistent margin pressure below the gross line and $12.9B in total debt could continue weighing on profitability.
Housing cycle exposure. With revenue growth decelerating to 2.06% in FY2025, a further softening in repair-and-remodel or new construction demand could compress volumes and undermine pricing power.
Technical weakness. Stock closed at $338.81, below its 50-day MA of $342.70, with a negative MACD histogram of -2.50 and RSI at 43.3, suggesting near-term momentum has deteriorated.

What would change my mind

Earnings re-acceleration. Q3 2026 EPS exceeds prior-year comparable and operating margin expands above 16.1%, signaling cost leverage returningbullish

Revenue growth inflection. Quarterly revenue growth accelerates above 5% YoY, indicating housing-cycle tailwinds are materializingbullish

Multiple de-rating. P/E compresses toward peer median of 16x without a corresponding offset from earnings growth, widening the valuation gap furtherbearish

Debt and interest burden. Total debt continues to rise above $12.9B or interest coverage deteriorates, increasing financial risk and pressuring net income furtherbearish

Where this comes from: FMP FY2025 fundamentals + derived_metrics · FMP FY2025 fundamentals · FMP FY2025 fundamentals + derived_metrics · peer_relative composite. Orin's read on SHW; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

On file

All SHW filings

Form	Filed	What it says	Read
10-Q	28 Jul	Consolidated net sales increased 7.5% year-over-year to $6.789 billion for the three months ended June 30, 2026, and 7.2% year-over-year to $12.456 billion for the six months ended June 30, 2026.	read
8-K	28 Jul	The Sherwin-Williams Company announced its second quarter ended June 30, 2026 financial results on July	read
8-K	9 Jun	Sherwin-Williams extended the maturity of $200,000,000 in borrowing and letter of credit commitments under its Amended and Restated Credit Agreement.	read
13G	30 Apr	—	on file
10-Q	28 Apr	Sherwin-Williams grew first-quarter 2026 revenue 6.8% year-over-year to $5.667 billion and diluted EPS 7.5% to $2.15; gross margin expanded 90 bps to 49.1% while the operating…	read
8-K	28 Apr	Sherwin-Williams filed an 8-K on April 28, 2026, solely to furnish its first-quarter 2026 earnings press release under Item 2.02; the release is attached as Exhibit 99.1.	read
8-K	24 Apr	Sherwin-Williams’ 8-K discloses only the routine shareholder-vote results from its 24 April 2026 annual meeting, triggering Item 5.07.	read
13G/A	27 Mar	—	on file

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow

Filer	Position	Of fund
State Street	$5.4B	0.2% of fund
Vanguard Capital Management	$5.2B	0.1% of fund
Fmr	$2.6B	0.1% of fund
Morgan Stanley	$2.3B	0.1% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management	$1.9B	0.1% of fund
Geode Capital Management	$1.8B	0.1% of fund

127 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 108 Form 4 filings, net $16.5M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 3 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

vs its own 5y · Basic Materials

Metric	Now	Own median	Sector
P/E	29.8×	32.2×	29.8×
EV/EBITDA	20.9×	21.8×	—
P/S	3.25×	3.46×	—
P/B	20.7×	21.3×	—

Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−0.76σ from its own mean).

What the price assumes

13.2%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $2.7B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

38 firms · 2026-09-23

Consensus target

$392

$360 – $420 · +20% against today's price

How they rate it

22 buy or overweight
15 hold
1 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 19.2× of 6 peers

Company	Market cap	P/E	EV/EBITDA	Gross	Net	ROE
SHWThe Sherwin-Williams Company	$79B	29.8×	20.9×	49.1%	11.0%	62%
APDAir Products and Chemicals, Inc.	$64B	—	62.5×	32.1%	-0.4%	-0%
CRHCRH plc	$57B	19.2×	12.8×	39.4%	13.7%	14%
ECLEcolab Inc.	$78B	36.9×	25.9×	44.1%	12.6%	21%
FCXFreeport-McMoRan Inc.	$104B	35.8×	12.3×	26.8%	11.4%	15%
NEMNewmont Corporation	$130B	15.5×	8.7×	54.5%	38.1%	25%
PPGPPG Industries, Inc.	$24B	15.3×	10.7×	40.1%	9.6%	19%
RPMRPM International Inc.	$13B	19.3×	11.5×	41.4%	8.4%	21%

The median is of the 6 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 55.1% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year

FY14 29.4×FY25 31.2×

What its sector has traded at

Basic Materials

FY14 23.8×FY26 28.6×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Discounted cash flow

not recomputed since

Model	Fair value	Against	Computed
Standard DCF	$224	$306.81 · −27%	2026-06-10
Levered DCF	$241	$306.81 · −21%	2026-06-10

The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.

Every estimate on one scale

price $325.33

52-week range$290 – $378

Analyst targets$360 – $420

Standard DCF$224 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $306.81

Levered DCF$241 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $306.81

At own 5y-median P/E (32×)$353

At 5y P/E range (30–50×)$332 – $543

At sector P/E (30×)$326

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.