The Sherwin-Williams Company
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Sherwin-Williams remains a hold as quarterly revenue growth is clearly accelerating — Q2 2026 revenue rose 7.5% YoY to $6.79B after Q1 2026's 6.8% gain — and the company has posted four consecutive EPS beats, yet FY2025 EPS still declined 2.7% to $10.27 and the stock trades at 30.2x P/E, 63.9% above the peer median of 18.4x.
Gross margin expanded to 48.9% and free cash flow improved to $2.65B, while the Statesville manufacturing expansion and net insider buying of roughly 112K shares over 24 months support the franchise. But with the stock at $319.51 below both its 50-day ($339.00) and 200-day ($333.24) moving averages and EV/EBITDA at 21.1x versus a peer median of 12.2x, the valuation premium caps upside until earnings growth meaningfully reaccelerates beyond the recent beat-and-raise trajectory.
What could go wrong
- Valuation premium. P/E of 30.18x sits 63.9% above the peer median of 18.41x and EV/EBITDA of 21.11x is 72.9% above the peer median of 12.21x, leaving little room for execution missteps.
- Earnings decline persists. FY2025 net income fell 4.2% to $2.57B and EPS declined 2.7% to $10.27 despite 2.1% revenue growth, so the recent quarterly acceleration has not yet translated into full-year earnings growth.
- Leverage and balance sheet. Total debt rose to $12.94B in FY2025 from $11.91B in FY2024 against stockholders' equity of just $4.60B, elevating financial risk if end markets weaken.
- Technical breakdown. Stock at $319.51 trades below both the 50-day MA ($339.00) and 200-day MA ($333.24) with RSI at 40.56, suggesting weak near-term momentum into the Oct 27 Q3 report.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q2 2026 results · FY25 fundamentals · peer comparison · FY24 and FY25 fundamentals. Orin's read on SHW; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 3.0% over twelve months, from $336.08 on 27 Oct 2025 to $326.01 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $372.60 on 12 Feb 2026; the last close is 12.5% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 8.2M, on 26 Jun 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All SHW filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $6.1B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $5.4B | 0.2% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $5.2B | 0.1% |
| FMR | $2.6B | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $2.3B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.9B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.8B | 0.1% |
| Norges Bank | $1.4B | 0.1% |
| Viking Global Investors | $1.3B | 3.8% |
| AllianceBernstein | $1.1B | 0.4% |
129 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 123 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$11.7M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 3 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about SHW
Orin answers questions about SHW from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 29.7× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — lower than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 31.8×); the typical Basic Materials company on the NYSE is at 22.4×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 29.7×below usual | 31.8× | 22.4× |
| P/S | 3.18×below usual | 3.46× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.2×below usual | 21.8× | — |
| P/B | 2.9×below usual | 21.3× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $382 (from $340 to $420) — 17% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$382
$340 – $420 · +17% against the last close
- 8 buy or overweight
- 3 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 29.7× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 3 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 18.1×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHWThe Sherwin-Williams Company | $79B | 29.7× | 20.2× | 48.7% | 10.7% | 27% |
| AXTAAxalta Coating Systems Ltd. | $7B | 21.2× | 10.0× | 32.6% | 6.8% | 15% |
| PPGPPG Industries, Inc. | $25B | 16.1× | 12.2× | 29.5% | 9.4% | n/m |
| RPMRPM International Inc. | $13B | 18.1× | 11.8× | 41.2% | 8.7% | 21% |
- PPG: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 29.7× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now29.7×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Basic Materials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 22.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now22.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $205 a share — 37% below the $326.52 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $205 | 37% below $326.52 |
| Levered | $216 | 34% below $326.52 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.