SiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc. SITE
SiteOne Landscape Supply remains a hold at $97.47 following a downbeat Q2 2026 print (EPS of $3.14 vs. $3.35 estimate) that triggered analyst forecast cuts and pushed the stock to a new 52-week low near $90.09. FY2025 showed partial recovery with operating income rebounding to $238M from $192M in FY2024, but earnings remain far below the FY2022 peak operating income of $333M, and total debt has climbed to $980M from $740M over the same period.
The stock trades at a meaningful EV/EBITDA discount to peers (10.9x vs. 15.8x median) and CEO Doug Black's open-market purchases totaling 13,000 shares in August 2026 at $96–$102 are a constructive signal, but the technical picture stays broken with price below both the 50-day MA of $102.30 and the 200-day MA of $124.02, and RSI at a neutral 47.8 — not oversold enough for a contrarian buy.
What could go wrong
- End-market demand softness. Q2 2026 earnings call noted softer demand in key end markets; continued weakness in housing and landscaping activity could pressure revenue growth, which has already decelerated to low single digits.
- Margin compression persistence. FY2025 operating margin of 5.06% remains well below FY2022's 8.3% and FY2021's 9.03%; if margins fail to recover further, the PE premium of 26.6x vs. peer median 22.9x becomes harder to justify.
- Rising leverage. Total debt has grown from $740M in FY2022 to $980M in FY2025 while earnings have declined over the same period, increasing balance sheet risk if end markets deteriorate further.
- Technical breakdown deepens. Stock is trading below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages; a sustained break below the 52-week low of $90.09 could trigger further selling pressure.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: earnings_surprises Q2 2026 · Defense World news 2026-07-30 · FMP annual fundamentals · FMP annual fundamentals. Orin's read on SITE; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All SITE filings| Form | Filed | What it says | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13G/A | 13 Aug | — | on file |
| 13G/A | 12 Aug | — | on file |
| 8-K | 29 Jul | SiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc. | read |
| 10-Q | 29 Jul | SiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc. | read |
| 8-K | 19 May | SiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc. | read |
| 13G | 14 May | — | on file |
| 13G | 30 Apr | — | on file |
| 10-Q | 29 Apr | SiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc. | read |
Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Price T Rowe Associates /Md/ | $511.9M | 0.1% of fund |
| 59 North Capital Management | $235.4M | 5.2% of fund |
| Bamco /Ny/ | $232.1M | 0.3% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $229.3M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $197.7M | 0.0% of fund |
| Aqr Capital Management | $140.5M | 0.0% of fund |
64 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 218 Form 4 filings, net −$5.6M. Of the 50 on hand, 4 were open-market purchases and 3 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about SITE
Orin answers questions about SITE from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 25.2× | — | 44.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.3× | — | — |
| P/S | 0.84× | — | — |
| P/B | 2.4× | — | — |
4.9%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.2B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$129
$100 – $160 · +41% against today's price
- 8 buy or overweight
- 7 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SITESiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc. | $4B | 25.2× | 10.3× | 35.1% | 3.4% | 10% |
| GATXGATX Corporation | $7B | 18.0× | 17.4× | 46.2% | 17.9% | 13% |
| GTESGates Industrial Corporation plc | $7B | 18.4× | 11.3× | 40.5% | 10.4% | 11% |
| KBRKBR, Inc. | $4B | 10.5× | 8.2× | 14.5% | 5.5% | 27% |
| MSMMSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. | $7B | 29.2× | 16.7× | 40.8% | 5.9% | 17% |
| NPOEnPro Industries, Inc. | $7B | 149.6× | 35.4× | 42.8% | 3.6% | 3% |
| TKRThe Timken Company | $8B | 31.6× | 15.2× | 28.7% | 5.4% | 8% |
The median is of the 6 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 6.0% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.