Orin
SITENYSE·Industrial - Distribution

SiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc. SITE

Market cap $4.0BP/E 25.2× trailingGross margin 35.1%Reports Wed 4 Nov, before the open
$91.41
−0.77 (−0.84%)live 11:25 ET
52-wk $86.20 – $168.56
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Orin's take
0.60conviction · moderate
Refreshed 2 Sep · take v5. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

SiteOne Landscape Supply remains a hold at $97.47 following a downbeat Q2 2026 print (EPS of $3.14 vs. $3.35 estimate) that triggered analyst forecast cuts and pushed the stock to a new 52-week low near $90.09. FY2025 showed partial recovery with operating income rebounding to $238M from $192M in FY2024, but earnings remain far below the FY2022 peak operating income of $333M, and total debt has climbed to $980M from $740M over the same period.

The stock trades at a meaningful EV/EBITDA discount to peers (10.9x vs. 15.8x median) and CEO Doug Black's open-market purchases totaling 13,000 shares in August 2026 at $96–$102 are a constructive signal, but the technical picture stays broken with price below both the 50-day MA of $102.30 and the 200-day MA of $124.02, and RSI at a neutral 47.8 — not oversold enough for a contrarian buy.

What could go wrong

  • End-market demand softness. Q2 2026 earnings call noted softer demand in key end markets; continued weakness in housing and landscaping activity could pressure revenue growth, which has already decelerated to low single digits.
  • Margin compression persistence. FY2025 operating margin of 5.06% remains well below FY2022's 8.3% and FY2021's 9.03%; if margins fail to recover further, the PE premium of 26.6x vs. peer median 22.9x becomes harder to justify.
  • Rising leverage. Total debt has grown from $740M in FY2022 to $980M in FY2025 while earnings have declined over the same period, increasing balance sheet risk if end markets deteriorate further.
  • Technical breakdown deepens. Stock is trading below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages; a sustained break below the 52-week low of $90.09 could trigger further selling pressure.

What would change my mind

Margin re-acceleration. Q3 2026 operating margin expands above FY2025 full-year level of 5.06% with revenue growth accelerating beyond Q2's 4.7% YoY pacebullish
Continued insider accumulation. CEO or other officers make additional open-market purchases at current levels following Doug Black's August 2026 buysbullish
Further earnings misses. Q3 2026 EPS falls below consensus and revenue growth turns negative year-over-yearbearish
Debt-driven balance sheet stress. Total debt increases further without corresponding earnings recovery, pushing leverage ratios to uncomfortable levelsbearish

Where this comes from: earnings_surprises Q2 2026 · Defense World news 2026-07-30 · FMP annual fundamentals · FMP annual fundamentals. Orin's read on SITE; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

FormFiledWhat it saysRead
13G/A13 Aug—on file
13G/A12 Aug—on file
8-K29 JulSiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc.read
10-Q29 JulSiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc.read
8-K19 MaySiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc.read
13G14 May—on file
13G30 Apr—on file
10-Q29 AprSiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc.read

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Price T Rowe Associates /Md/$511.9M0.1% of fund
59 North Capital Management$235.4M5.2% of fund
Bamco /Ny/$232.1M0.3% of fund
Vanguard Capital Management$229.3M0.0% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$197.7M0.0% of fund
Aqr Capital Management$140.5M0.0% of fund

64 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 218 Form 4 filings, net −$5.6M. Of the 50 on hand, 4 were open-market purchases and 3 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

· Industrials
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E25.2×—44.5×
EV/EBITDA10.3×——
P/S0.84×——
P/B2.4×——
What the price assumes

4.9%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.2B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

16 firms · 2026-09-24
Consensus target

$129

$100 – $160 · +41% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 8 buy or overweight
  • 7 hold
  • 1 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 23.8× of 6 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
SITESiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc.$4B25.2×10.3×35.1%3.4%10%
GATXGATX Corporation$7B18.0×17.4×46.2%17.9%13%
GTESGates Industrial Corporation plc$7B18.4×11.3×40.5%10.4%11%
KBRKBR, Inc.$4B10.5×8.2×14.5%5.5%27%
MSMMSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc.$7B29.2×16.7×40.8%5.9%17%
NPOEnPro Industries, Inc.$7B149.6×35.4×42.8%3.6%3%
TKRThe Timken Company$8B31.6×15.2×28.7%5.4%8%

The median is of the 6 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 6.0% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY17 56.0×FY25 37.3×

What its sector has traded at

Industrials
FY14 173.5×FY26 32.6×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Every estimate on one scale

price $91.41
52-week range$86 – $169
Analyst targets$100 – $160
At sector P/E (45×)$163

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.