SiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
SiteOne Landscape Supply remains a hold at $89.56 as the stock continues to slide — price sits below both the 50-day MA of $95.58 and 200-day MA of $119.91, near the 52-week low of $86.20, with RSI at 39.27 suggesting room for further downside before reaching oversold territory.
FY2025 showed partial earnings recovery (EPS $3.37, +24.4% YoY) but revenue growth decelerated to 3.6% and the operating margin of 5.1% remains far below the FY2021 peak of 9.0%, while total debt climbed to $980M. CEO Doug Black's open-market purchases of 13,000 shares in August 2026 at $96–$102 are a constructive signal, but the stock has since fallen below those buy levels, and Q2 2026's EPS miss ($3.14 vs. $3.35 estimate) alongside Q1 2026's near-flat revenue growth of +0.07% YoY indicate the recovery thesis remains unproven.
What could go wrong
- Margin compression. Operating margin of 5.1% in FY2025 is less than half the FY2021 peak of 9.0%; further cost or pricing pressure would erode the fragile earnings rebound.
- Elevated leverage. Total debt rose to $980M as of FY2025 from $607M in FY2021, increasing interest burden and financial risk if revenue growth stays subdued.
- Housing and construction exposure. As a landscape supply distributor, demand is tied to housing and commercial construction cycles; a prolonged downturn would pressure volumes.
- Broken technicals. Stock trades below both the 50-day ($95.58) and 200-day ($119.91) moving averages with RSI at 39.27, suggesting bearish momentum may persist.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY25 fundamentals · FY21 fundamentals · FY21 and FY25 fundamentals · insider trades. Orin's read on SITE; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 17.2% over twelve months, from $124.41 on 27 Oct 2025 to $103.03 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $163.25 on 11 Feb 2026; the last close is 36.9% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 3.6M, on 29 Apr 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All SITE filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $511.9M | 0.1% |
| 59 North Capital Management | $235.4M | 5.2% |
| BAMCO | $232.1M | 0.3% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $229.3M | 0.0% |
| BlackRock | $221.4M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $197.7M | 0.0% |
| AQR Capital Management | $140.5M | 0.0% |
| Capital World Investors | $113.5M | 0.0% |
| Citadel Advisors | $112.5M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $90.8M | 0.0% |
65 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 217 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$11.0M. Of the 50 on hand, 4 were open-market purchases and 3 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about SITE
Orin answers questions about SITE from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 28.2× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 1 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 42.3×); the typical Industrials company on the NYSE is at 33.7×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 28.2×below usual | 42.3× | 33.7× |
| P/S | 0.94×below usual | 1.32× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.5×below usual | 20.5× | — |
| P/B | 2.7×below usual | 4.1× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $115 (from $91 to $155) — 11% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$115
$91 – $155 · +11% against the last close
- 6 buy or overweight
- 6 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 28.2× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 6 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 21.3×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SITESiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc. | $4B | 28.2× | 11.5× | 35.1% | 3.4% | 10% |
| GATXGATX Corporation | $6B | 16.5× | 16.8× | 46.2% | 17.9% | 13% |
| GTESGates Industrial Corporation plc | $7B | 18.1× | 11.2× | 40.5% | 10.4% | 11% |
| KBRKBR, Inc. | $5B | 12.1× | 9.0× | 14.5% | 5.5% | 27% |
| MSMMSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. | $7B | 29.7× | 17.0× | 40.9% | 5.6% | 16% |
| NPOEnPro Industries, Inc. | $6B | 136× | 32.4× | 42.8% | 3.6% | 3% |
| TKRThe Timken Company | $7B | 24.5× | 12.7× | 29.1% | 5.9% | 9% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 28.2× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now28.2×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Industrials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 33.7× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now33.7×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $79 a share — 23% below the $101.79 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $79 | 23% below $101.79 |
| Levered | $59 | 42% below $101.79 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.