The J. M. Smucker Company
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
SJM's operating turnaround is genuine — Q1 FY2027 (ended 31 Jul) delivered $511.6M operating income, $3.03 diluted EPS, and 5.0% revenue growth, while FY2026 free cash flow remained strong at $1.156B (12.8% FCF margin).
However, the stock at $127.43 trades at 59.27x earnings versus a peer median of 5.60x — a 959% premium — despite FY2026 producing a $138.7M GAAP net loss and a 4.0% operating margin, well below the 16.0% margin achieved in FY2024. With RSI at 66.7 and the price extended above both the 50-day ($122.51) and 200-day ($109.69) moving averages, the momentum-driven rally has priced in much of the recovery, leaving risk/reward balanced rather than compelling.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. At 59.27x PE versus a peer median of 5.60x and EV/EBITDA of 15.34x versus 9.60x, any disappointment in earnings delivery could trigger a sharp de-rating.
- GAAP profitability still impaired. FY2026 net loss of $138.7M and Q3 FY2026 operating loss of $548.4M show that impairment or restructuring charges can still materially distort results, making the earnings trajectory lumpy.
- Insider selling persists. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders net sold 151,007 shares worth $18.98M, with only 2 acquisitions versus 12 dispositions; recent October 2026 acquisitions are deferred stock unit grants, not open-market purchases.
- Leverage overhang. Total debt of $7.089B against stockholders' equity of $5.544B as of FY2026 limits financial flexibility, particularly if consumer spending softens.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: results, quarter to 31 Jul · fundamentals, year to 30 Apr · peer comparison · technicals, 16 Oct. Orin's read on SJM; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 21.6% over twelve months, from $104.77 on 27 Oct 2025 to $127.41 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $133.39 on 22 Oct 2026; the last close is 4.5% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 12.2M, on 27 Feb 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
- Rose flags: large share sales by the company's own officers and directors, from the Form 4 each one files after trading.
On file
All SJM filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $831.4M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $764.4M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $739.5M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $555.0M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $326.7M | 0.0% |
| Hotchkis & Wiley Capital Management | $314.3M | 0.9% |
| Citadel Advisors | $302.7M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $264.9M | 0.0% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $244.6M | 0.0% |
| FMR | $216.2M | 0.0% |
89 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 126 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$19.0M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 7 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about SJM
Orin answers questions about SJM from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 59.3× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — above its usual level (19.8×); the typical Consumer Defensive company on the NYSE is at 21.9×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 59.3×above usual | 19.8× | 21.9× |
| P/S | 1.49×near usual | 1.46× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.3×below usual | 16.6× | — |
| P/B | 2.4×above usual | 1.9× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $138 (from $110 to $160) — 8% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$138
$110 – $160 · +8% against the last close
- 9 buy or overweight
- 7 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 59.3× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 3 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 22.8×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJMThe J. M. Smucker Company | $14B | 59.3× | 15.3× | 38.7% | 2.5% | 4% |
| CAGConagra Brands, Inc. | $7B | lost money | n/m | 23.8% | −17.0% | −26% |
| CPBCampbell Soup Company | $6B | 15.4× | 10.1× | 28.1% | 4.1% | 10% |
| GISGeneral Mills, Inc. | $18B | lost money | 9.3× | 33.6% | −4.9% | −11% |
| HRLHormel Foods Corporation | $11B | 33.1× | 15.5× | 15.7% | 2.8% | 4% |
| KHCThe Kraft Heinz Company | $30B | lost money | n/m | 33.5% | −14.0% | −9% |
| MDLZMondelez International, Inc. | $80B | 22.8× | 16.0× | 31.1% | 8.9% | 13% |
- CAG, GIS, KHC: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- CAG, KHC: EV/EBITDA is not meaningful (n/m) — its cash exceeds its market value plus debt, or the business lost money before depreciation.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 59.3× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now59.3×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Consumer Defensive companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 21.9× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now21.9×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $82 a share — 36% below the $127.78 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $82 | 36% below $127.78 |
| Levered | $249 | 95% above $127.78 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.