The J. M. Smucker Company SJM
SJM's operating turnaround is genuine — FY2026 (ended April 30, 2026) operating income swung to +$360.2M from -$673.9M and free cash flow reached $1.16B with FCF margin of 12.8% — but the company still posted a $138.7M net loss and gross margin compressed to 33.5% from 38.8% a year earlier. The stock's rally to $130.90 with an RSI of 70.4, trading above both the 50-day MA of $116.86 and 200-day MA of $106.05, prices in a recovery that lacks GAAP profitability, while the P/S of 1.48x sits roughly 109% above the peer median of 0.71x.
With the CEO, CFO, and other C-suite insiders selling common shares in June 2026 and smart money interest near zero (score 0.0309 as of 2026-06-30), the risk/reward into Q1 FY2027 earnings is balanced but fragile.
What could go wrong
- Gross margin compression. Gross margin fell to 33.5% in FY2026 from 38.8% in FY2025, suggesting input cost pressure (coffee, tariffs) is outpacing pricing power.
- Overbought technicals. RSI at 70.4 with the stock at $130.90, well above the 50-day MA of $116.86 and 200-day MA of $106.05, leaves limited upside before a mean-reversion pullback.
- Insider selling. CEO sold 13,000 shares at $115.11, CFO sold 3,630 shares, CLO sold 4,353 shares, and CPO sold 5,000 shares in June 2026 — C-suite distribution into the rally.
- Persistent net losses. FY2026 net income was -$138.7M (EPS -$1.30), the second consecutive year of negative earnings after FY2025's -$1.23B loss.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals, FY ended 2026-04-30 · FMP annual fundamentals and derived_metrics, FY ended 2026-04-30 · FMP annual fundamentals, FY ended 2026-04-30 · derived_metrics, FY2026 vs FY2025. Orin's read on SJM; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All SJM filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $764.4M | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $739.5M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $555.0M | 0.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $326.7M | 0.0% of fund |
| Hotchkis & Wiley Capital Management | $314.3M | 0.9% of fund |
| Citadel Advisors | $302.7M | 0.0% of fund |
88 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 112 Form 4 filings, net −$25.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 9 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about SJM
Orin answers questions about SJM from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 56.9× | — | 38.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.9× | — | — |
| P/S | 1.43× | 1.84× | — |
| P/B | 2.3× | 1.8× | — |
Its P/E sits above all 5 of the last 5 years (+1.07σ from its own mean).
-0.1%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.2B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$137
$110 – $157 · +12% against today's price
- 16 buy or overweight
- 13 hold
- 2 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJMThe J. M. Smucker Company | $13B | 56.9× | 14.9× | 38.7% | 2.5% | 4% |
| CAGConagra Brands, Inc. | $7B | — | — | 23.9% | -17.0% | -24% |
| CPBCampbell Soup Company | $6B | 15.2× | 10.1× | 28.1% | 4.1% | 10% |
| HRLHormel Foods Corporation | $11B | 31.6× | 14.9× | 15.7% | 2.8% | 4% |
| TAPMolson Coors Beverage Company | $7B | — | — | 36.2% | -20.8% | -23% |
The median is of the 2 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 143.4% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $44 | $116.17 · −62% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $288 | $116.17 · +148% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.