Semtech Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Semtech's stock has corrected roughly 24% from ~$180 to $136.73 since the prior hold verdict, yet the fundamental story has materially improved: Q2 FY2027 revenue grew 32.7% YoY to $341.9M with EPS of $1.59, the company raised its Q3 FY2027 outlook above FactSet consensus, and it mapped a $3.2B FY2030 revenue path driven by AI data center connectivity.
With RSI at 34.3 (oversold), the stock trading above its 200-day MA of $121.92, consistent earnings beats across eight quarters, debt cut to $497M from $1.38B in FY2024, and an FCF margin of 15.2% in FY2026, the pullback creates a more defensible entry into a high-growth connectivity turnaround. Valuation remains elevated at 82.5x PE versus a peer median of 52.1x and 99x EV/EBITDA versus 40.1x, but the PS ratio of 10.87x is actually below the peer median of 12.17x, suggesting the market has not fully priced in the revenue acceleration.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. PE of 82.5x sits 58.3% above the peer median of 52.1x, and EV/EBITDA of 99x is 147% above the 40.1x median; any growth disappointment could trigger a sharp de-rating.
- Persistent insider selling. Over 24 months, insiders disposed 105 transactions with net selling of $22.36M in value; the CEO and CFO sold shares as recently as October 2026 at $178-191 per share.
- Long-term targets are aspirational. The $3.2B FY2030 revenue path and data center revenue doubling in FY2028/2029 are management projections, not realized results, and depend on sustained AI infrastructure spending.
- Technical breakdown risk. MACD histogram is deeply negative at -6.95 and price is below the 50-day MA of $156.80, indicating bearish momentum that could extend toward the 200-day MA of $121.92.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: results, quarter to 26 Jul · FY26 fundamentals · FY24 and FY26 fundamentals · technicals, 16 Oct. Orin's read on SMTC; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 104% over twelve months, from $70.66 on 27 Oct 2025 to $144.35 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $197.20 on 6 Oct 2026; the last close is 26.8% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 18.1M, on 26 Jun 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All SMTC filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $1.6B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $862.4M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $679.7M | 0.0% |
| Ameriprise Financial | $559.0M | 0.1% |
| State Street | $548.4M | 0.0% |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $478.2M | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $366.6M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $318.9M | 0.0% |
| Wellington Management Group | $310.1M | 0.1% |
| Bank of America | $301.0M | 0.0% |
100 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 406 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$22.4M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 23 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about SMTC
Orin answers questions about SMTC from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 87.1× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — above its usual level (35.3×); the typical Technology company on the NASDAQ is at 46.1×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 87.1×above usual | 35.3× | 46.1× |
| P/S | 11.5×above usual | 4.51× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 104×above usual | 24.6× | — |
| P/B | 18.0×above usual | 6.9× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $217 (from $186 to $300) — 50% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$217
$186 – $300 · +50% against the last close
- 13 buy or overweight
- 1 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 87.1× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 9 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 48.0×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMTCSemtech Corporation | $13B | 87.1× | 104× | 52.0% | 13.1% | 25% |
| ADIAnalog Devices, Inc. | $206B | 50.2× | 30.3× | 65.8% | 29.8% | 12% |
| ALGMAllegro MicroSystems, Inc. | $6B | 420× | 62.2× | 47.2% | 1.5% | 1% |
| CRDOCredo Technology Group Holding Ltd | $31B | 56.8× | 52.6× | 67.1% | 33.8% | 27% |
| MPWRMonolithic Power Systems, Inc. | $60B | 73.9× | 56.1× | 55.2% | 24.4% | 22% |
| MTSIMACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. | $15B | 43.1× | 32.5× | 58.0% | 25.3% | 22% |
| MXLMaxLinear, Inc. | $7B | lost money | 207× | 58.0% | −4.4% | −6% |
| POWIPower Integrations, Inc. | $2B | 48.0× | 30.2× | 53.9% | 9.8% | 7% |
| QRVOQorvo, Inc. | $10B | 26.2× | 13.2× | 48.2% | 11.0% | 11% |
| SWKSSkyworks Solutions, Inc. | $13B | 44.1× | 16.1× | 40.7% | 7.2% | 5% |
| TXNTexas Instruments Incorporated | $282B | 40.0× | 26.6× | 60.2% | 34.3% | 41% |
- MXL: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 87.1× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now87.1×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Technology companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 46.1× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now46.1×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $7 a share — 95% below the $143.44 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Levered | $7 | 95% below $143.44 |
- Standard: comes out below zero, so it is not shown.
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.