Orin
SNANYSE·Manufacturing - Tools & Accessories

Snap-on Incorporated SNA

Market cap $19.1BP/E 18.6× trailingGross margin 51.2%Reports Thu 15 Oct, before the open
$369.18
−1.07 (−0.29%)live 09:30 ET
52-wk $320.80 – $423.02
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Orin's take
0.60conviction · moderate
Refreshed 30 Aug · take v7. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

Snap-on remains a hold as FY2025 results confirm a plateauing fundamental trajectory—revenue grew just 0.9% to $5.16B while net income declined 2.6% and diluted EPS fell to $19.19, with FCF margin compressing from 22.2% to 19.5%. The stock trades at a 24% P/E discount to the peer median (19.7x vs 25.8x) and a modest 2.5% EV/EBITDA discount (13.2x vs 13.6x), but a P/S of 4.0x—85% above the peer median—embeds a quality premium that sub-1% top-line growth and contracting margins do not justify.

Persistent net insider selling of $59M over 24 months and a bearish MACD configuration temper the case, though an RSI near 39 and support above the 200-day at $375 suggest near-term downside may be limited.

What could go wrong

  • Margin compression. Operating margin contracted from 26.3% in FY2024 to 25.8% in FY2025 while net margin fell from 20.4% to 19.7%; continued cost pressure could accelerate erosion of the quality premium.
  • Diesel Laptops integration. The $100M Diesel Laptops acquisition expands heavy-duty diagnostics reach but introduces integration costs and exposure to softer OEM demand cited in recent coverage.
  • Insider selling persistence. Net insider dispositions of $59M over 24 months with 164 sales versus 94 acquisitions signal persistent executive caution.
  • Valuation overhang. A P/S of 4.0x at an 85% premium to the peer median leaves little room for error if revenue growth remains below 1%.

What would change my mind

Q3 2026 margin stabilization. Operating margin holds at or above 25.8% with positive organic revenue growth in the next quarterly reportbullish
Revenue reacceleration. Year-over-year revenue growth exceeds 2% in a quarterly or annual reportbullish
FCF deterioration. Free cash flow declines further below $1.0B annualized or FCF margin falls below 18%bearish
Technical breakdown. Stock closes below the 200-day moving average at $375 with sustained negative MACD momentumbearish

Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals & derived_metrics, fiscal year ended 2026-01-03 · derived_metrics, FY2024 vs FY2025 · peer_relative · insider summary, 24-month window. Orin's read on SNA; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Vanguard Capital Management$1.4B0.0% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$1.1B0.0% of fund
State Street$948.3M0.0% of fund
Charles Schwab Investment Management$729.0M0.1% of fund
Geode Capital Management$673.4M0.0% of fund
Earnest Partners$365.4M1.3% of fund

81 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 260 Form 4 filings, net −$59.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 22 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

vs its own 5y · Industrials
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E18.6×15.1×44.5×
EV/EBITDA12.5×10.5×
P/S3.77×2.99×
P/B3.2×3.0×

Its P/E sits above all 5 of the last 5 years (+1.68σ from its own mean).

What the price assumes

7.0%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.0B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

17 firms · 2026-09-23
Consensus target

$445

$415$485 · +21% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 11 buy or overweight
  • 4 hold
  • 2 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 26.3× of 7 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
SNASnap-on Incorporated$19B18.6×12.5×51.2%20.4%17%
ACMAecom$8B27.8×5.7%1.9%13%
CHRWC.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.$18B28.2×19.5×10.1%3.7%36%
EXPDExpeditors International of Washington, Inc.$25B27.3×19.2×23.9%7.6%41%
GPNGlobal Payments Inc.$21B12.4×63.9%-9.4%-4%
LECOLincoln Electric Holdings, Inc.$14B26.3×17.3×36.0%12.4%37%
LIILennox International Inc.$13B16.8×13.1×33.1%14.6%65%
PNRPentair plc$9B13.8×11.3×41.3%16.2%17%
SWKStanley Black & Decker, Inc.$14B22.5×12.8×31.7%4.1%7%

The median is of the 7 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 29.3% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY14 18.8×FY26 18.0×

What its sector has traded at

Industrials
FY14 173.5×FY26 32.7×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Discounted cash flow

not recomputed since
ModelFair valueAgainstComputed
Standard DCF$376$380.69 · −1%2026-06-10
Levered DCF$398$380.69 · +5%2026-06-10

The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.

Every estimate on one scale

price $369.18
52-week range$321 – $423
Analyst targets$415 – $485
Standard DCF$376 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $380.69
Levered DCF$398 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $380.69
At own 5y-median P/E (15×)$301
At 5y P/E range (13–18×)$266 – $358
At sector P/E (45×)$887

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.