Snap-on Incorporated SNA
Snap-on remains a hold as FY2025 results confirm a plateauing fundamental trajectory—revenue grew just 0.9% to $5.16B while net income declined 2.6% and diluted EPS fell to $19.19, with FCF margin compressing from 22.2% to 19.5%. The stock trades at a 24% P/E discount to the peer median (19.7x vs 25.8x) and a modest 2.5% EV/EBITDA discount (13.2x vs 13.6x), but a P/S of 4.0x—85% above the peer median—embeds a quality premium that sub-1% top-line growth and contracting margins do not justify.
Persistent net insider selling of $59M over 24 months and a bearish MACD configuration temper the case, though an RSI near 39 and support above the 200-day at $375 suggest near-term downside may be limited.
What could go wrong
- Margin compression. Operating margin contracted from 26.3% in FY2024 to 25.8% in FY2025 while net margin fell from 20.4% to 19.7%; continued cost pressure could accelerate erosion of the quality premium.
- Diesel Laptops integration. The $100M Diesel Laptops acquisition expands heavy-duty diagnostics reach but introduces integration costs and exposure to softer OEM demand cited in recent coverage.
- Insider selling persistence. Net insider dispositions of $59M over 24 months with 164 sales versus 94 acquisitions signal persistent executive caution.
- Valuation overhang. A P/S of 4.0x at an 85% premium to the peer median leaves little room for error if revenue growth remains below 1%.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals & derived_metrics, fiscal year ended 2026-01-03 · derived_metrics, FY2024 vs FY2025 · peer_relative · insider summary, 24-month window. Orin's read on SNA; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All SNA filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.4B | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.1B | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $948.3M | 0.0% of fund |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $729.0M | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $673.4M | 0.0% of fund |
| Earnest Partners | $365.4M | 1.3% of fund |
81 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 260 Form 4 filings, net −$59.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 22 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about SNA
Orin answers questions about SNA from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 18.6× | 15.1× | 44.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.5× | 10.5× | — |
| P/S | 3.77× | 2.99× | — |
| P/B | 3.2× | 3.0× | — |
Its P/E sits above all 5 of the last 5 years (+1.68σ from its own mean).
7.0%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.0B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$445
$415 – $485 · +21% against today's price
- 11 buy or overweight
- 4 hold
- 2 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SNASnap-on Incorporated | $19B | 18.6× | 12.5× | 51.2% | 20.4% | 17% |
| ACMAecom | $8B | 27.8× | — | 5.7% | 1.9% | 13% |
| CHRWC.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. | $18B | 28.2× | 19.5× | 10.1% | 3.7% | 36% |
| EXPDExpeditors International of Washington, Inc. | $25B | 27.3× | 19.2× | 23.9% | 7.6% | 41% |
| GPNGlobal Payments Inc. | $21B | — | 12.4× | 63.9% | -9.4% | -4% |
| LECOLincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. | $14B | 26.3× | 17.3× | 36.0% | 12.4% | 37% |
| LIILennox International Inc. | $13B | 16.8× | 13.1× | 33.1% | 14.6% | 65% |
| PNRPentair plc | $9B | 13.8× | 11.3× | 41.3% | 16.2% | 17% |
| SWKStanley Black & Decker, Inc. | $14B | 22.5× | 12.8× | 31.7% | 4.1% | 7% |
The median is of the 7 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 29.3% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $376 | $380.69 · −1% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $398 | $380.69 · +5% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.