Snap-on Incorporated
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Snap-on remains a hold as the fundamental trajectory has shifted from plateau to active deterioration—Q1 and Q2 2026 revenue declined 2.9% and 3.6% YoY respectively, reversing the positive growth seen in Q3 and Q4 2025, while FY2025 operating margin compressed to 25.8% from 26.3% and FCF margin fell to 19.5% from 22.2%.
The stock trades at an 18.4x P/E, a 24.1% discount to the peer median of 24.3x, but a P/S of 3.74x—87.3% above the peer median—embeds a quality premium that contracting revenue does not support. With the stock below both its 50-day ($390.71) and 200-day ($379.30) moving averages, RSI at 35.4 signaling oversold conditions, and persistent net insider selling of $59.3M over 24 months, the risk-reward is balanced enough to await Q3 2026 results for directional clarity.
What could go wrong
- Revenue decline accelerates. Two consecutive quarters of YoY revenue contraction (Q1 2026 -2.9%, Q2 2026 -3.6%) mark a clear inflection from prior growth; a third declining quarter would signal structural demand weakness.
- Margin compression continues. FY2025 operating margin fell to 25.8% from 26.3% and FCF margin dropped to 19.5% from 22.2%, eroding the earnings power that justifies the premium P/S multiple of 3.74x.
- Insider selling persists. Net insider disposition of $59.3M over 24 months with 165 sales vs 95 acquisitions, including CEO option exercises and immediate sales, signals limited insider confidence at current levels.
- Technical breakdown deepens. Stock at $367.72 trades below both the 50-day MA ($390.71) and 200-day MA ($379.30); a sustained break below the 200-day could trigger further institutional selling.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: quarterly results · fundamentals · peer comparison · insider trades. Orin's read on SNA; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 3.3% over twelve months, from $346.25 on 27 Oct 2025 to $357.51 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $419.31 on 28 Jul 2026; the last close is 14.7% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 1.6M, on 20 Mar 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All SNA filings| Form | Filed | What it says | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10-Q | 22 Oct | — | on file |
| 8-K | 22 Oct | — | on file |
| 13G | 27 Jul | — | on file |
| 10-Q | 23 Jul | Snap-on Incorporated reported net sales of $1,235.1 million for the three months ended July 4, 2026, an increase of 4.7% year-over-year. | read |
| 8-K | 23 Jul | Snap-on Incorporated reported second quarter results ended July 4, 2026, via press release on July 23, 2026. | read |
| 8-K | 1 May | Snap-on’s 2026 annual meeting on April 30 produced no surprises: all ten directors were elected, Deloitte was ratified as 2026 auditor, and advisory “say-on-pay” passed with 96% support. | read |
| 13G | 30 Apr | — | on file |
| 13G | 29 Apr | — | on file |
Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $1.7B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.4B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.1B | 0.0% |
| State Street | $948.3M | 0.0% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $729.0M | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $673.4M | 0.0% |
| Earnest Partners | $365.4M | 1.3% |
| Invesco | $344.1M | 0.0% |
| Bank of America | $329.8M | 0.0% |
| Northern Trust | $322.5M | 0.0% |
84 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 260 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$69.1M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 22 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about SNA
Orin answers questions about SNA from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 18.3× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 15.1×); the typical Industrials company on the NYSE is at 33.7×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 18.3×above usual | 15.1× | 33.7× |
| P/S | 3.65×above usual | 2.99× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.4×above usual | 10.5× | — |
| P/B | 3.0×near usual | 3.0× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $434 (from $385 to $485) — 21% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$434
$385 – $485 · +21% against the last close
- 4 buy or overweight
- 1 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 18.3× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 6 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 22.6×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SNASnap-on Incorporated | $18B | 18.3× | 12.4× | 51.2% | 20.0% | 17% |
| EPACEnerpac Tool Group Corp. | $2B | 19.9× | 12.6× | 49.0% | 14.7% | 22% |
| HLMNHillman Solutions Corp. | $1B | 33.5× | 8.5× | 45.8% | 2.6% | 3% |
| KMTKennametal Inc. | $2B | 3.0× | 2.8× | 50.5% | 22.5% | 39% |
| LECOLincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. | $15B | 26.8× | 17.7× | 35.5% | 12.4% | 38% |
| SWKStanley Black & Decker, Inc. | $17B | 20.7× | 12.5× | 33.8% | 5.5% | 9% |
| TKRThe Timken Company | $7B | 24.5× | 12.7× | 29.1% | 5.9% | 9% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 18.3× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now18.3×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Industrials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 33.7× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now33.7×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $352 a share — 2% below the $357.65 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $352 | 2% below $357.65 |
| Levered | $371 | 4% above $357.65 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.