SoFi Technologies, Inc. SOFI
SoFi remains a hold: FY2025 revenue grew 28.8% YoY to $4.77B with operating margin expanding from 6.3% to 11.0%, but net income actually declined 3.5% to $481M and free cash flow worsened to -$3.98B from -$1.28B the prior year. The stock's 35.8x P/E trades at a 126% premium to the peer median of 15.8x, which is difficult to justify with flat EPS of $0.39 and deeply negative FCF.
Technicals show a modest bounce above the 50-day MA at $17.70 with a positive MACD histogram, but the price at $18.24 remains 15% below the 200-day MA at $21.56, and 24-month net insider selling of $584.8M with a slightly negative smart money score of -0.0021 as of Q2 2026 limits upside conviction.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. At 35.8x P/E and 4.2x P/S, SOFI trades at a 126% and 79% premium to peer medians respectively; any growth deceleration could trigger a sharp re-rating lower.
- Free cash flow deterioration. FCF worsened to -$3.98B in FY2025 from -$1.28B in FY2024, with FCF margin at -83.6%, raising questions about capital intensity and funding costs.
- Persistent insider selling. Over 24 months, insiders net sold 26.5M shares worth $584.8M with 250 dispositions versus 188 acquisitions and no cluster buys.
- Net income decline despite revenue growth. Net income fell 3.5% YoY to $481M in FY2025 even as revenue grew 28.8%, suggesting margin pressure or reinvestment costs are offsetting top-line gains.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual + derived_metrics · derived_metrics FY2024 vs FY2025 · FMP annual + derived_metrics · FMP annual FY2025 vs FY2024. Orin's read on SOFI; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All SOFI filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.0B | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $909.8M | 0.0% of fund |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $631.3M | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $515.7M | 0.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $417.6M | 0.0% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $350.0M | 0.0% of fund |
77 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 476 Form 4 filings, net −$591.6M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 3 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about SOFI
Orin answers questions about SOFI from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 32.9× | — | 21.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 23.5× | — | — |
| P/S | 3.86× | 4.37× | — |
| P/B | 1.9× | 1.8× | — |
Its P/E sits 80th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.75σ from its own mean).
What Wall Street published
$22
$16 – $29 · +29% against today's price
- 10 buy or overweight
- 13 hold
- 4 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOFISoFi Technologies, Inc. | $22B | 32.9× | 23.5× | 76.5% | 11.4% | 6% |
| ACGLArch Capital Group Ltd. | $33B | 7.3× | 6.5× | 46.2% | 24.4% | 20% |
| ARESAres Management Corporation | $39B | 52.4× | 21.1× | 62.7% | 10.0% | 15% |
| HBANHuntington Bancshares Incorporated | $31B | 11.3× | 14.2× | 63.7% | 16.6% | 9% |
| MSMorgan Stanley | $310B | 15.8× | 23.0× | 59.7% | 16.0% | 18% |
| RJFRaymond James Financial, Inc. | $30B | 13.6× | 7.9× | 83.5% | 13.6% | 18% |
| SCHWThe Charles Schwab Corporation | $173B | 18.0× | 11.0× | 86.7% | 33.6% | 20% |
| STTState Street Corporation | $50B | 15.7× | 14.8× | 65.3% | 15.0% | 12% |
| SYFSynchrony Financial | $23B | 7.3× | 4.6× | 52.3% | 18.6% | 21% |
The median is of the 8 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 125.0% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $18 | $16.06 · +15% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $-28 | $16.06 · −276% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.