SoFi Technologies, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
SoFi remains a hold as the stock has fallen to $14.55 (as of 16 Oct) with an RSI of 34.7, but the fundamental picture is mixed.
Revenue growth is accelerating—Q2 2026 revenue of $1.57B grew 39.1% YoY and FY2025 operating margin expanded to 11.0%—yet FY2025 free cash flow remains deeply negative at -$3.98B and the P/E of 28.5x still trades at a 50% premium to the peer median of 19.0x. Persistent insider selling (24-month net disposition value of -$449M) and a slightly negative smart money score of -0.01 as of Q2 2026 temper conviction despite consistent EPS beats and the stock's oversold technical condition.
What could go wrong
- Negative free cash flow. FY2025 FCF of -$3.98B (FCF margin of -83.6%) reflects the capital-intensive nature of loan origination; sustained negative FCF could pressure the balance sheet if funding costs rise further.
- Valuation premium in a rising-rate environment. P/E of 28.5x is 50% above the peer median of 19.0x and EV/EBITDA of 19.1x is 109% above the peer median of 9.1x; rising long-term yields are compressing fintech multiples and the stock is already down ~46% in 2026.
- Persistent insider selling. Over 24 months, insiders net sold $449M in value (-27.9M shares); recent September 2026 sales by the CTO, EVP, General Counsel, and CRO continue the pattern with no cluster buying.
- Technical breakdown. Stock at $14.55 trades well below both the 50-day MA ($17.09) and 200-day MA ($19.32) with a negative MACD histogram, suggesting the downtrend remains intact despite oversold conditions.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q2 2026 results · FY25 fundamentals · peer comparison · insider trades. Orin's read on SOFI; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 45.3% over twelve months, from $30.00 on 27 Oct 2025 to $16.40 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $32.21 on 12 Nov 2025; the last close is 49.1% below it.
- The 200-day average starts on 27 Feb 2026, once there were 200 trading days to average.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 200.5M, on 29 Apr 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All SOFI filings| Form | Filed | What it says | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10-Q | 6 Aug | SoFi Technologies, Inc. reported total net revenue of $1.219 billion for the three months ended June 30, 2026, a 43% increase year-over-year. | read |
| 8-K | 29 Jul | SoFi Technologies, Inc. reported financial results for the three and six months ended June 30, 2026, on July 29, 2026. | read |
| 8-K | 18 Jun | SoFi Technologies, Inc. held its 2026 annual meeting of stockholders on June 17, 2026, where all ten director nominees were elected to serve until the 2027 annual meeting. | read |
| DEFA14A | 30 Apr | — | on file |
| DEF 14A | 30 Apr | SoFi Technologies, Inc. (SOFI) is holding its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders virtually on June 17, 2026. | read |
| 13G | 30 Apr | — | on file |
| 13G/A | 27 Mar | — | on file |
| 13G/A | 13 Nov 2025 | — | on file |
Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $1.3B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.0B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $909.8M | 0.0% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $631.3M | 0.1% |
| State Street | $515.7M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $417.6M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $350.0M | 0.0% |
| D. E. Shaw | $263.4M | 0.1% |
| Norges Bank | $244.4M | 0.0% |
| Millennium Management | $188.1M | 0.1% |
80 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 455 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$449.0M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 4 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about SOFI
Orin answers questions about SOFI from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 28.3× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — below its usual level (47.9×); the typical Financial Services company on the NASDAQ is at 20.4×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 28.3×below usual | 47.9× | 20.4× |
| P/S | 3.46×below usual | 4.37× | — |
| P/B | 1.9×above usual | 1.8× | — |
- P/S: for a bank, sales here are gross revenue — interest income plus non-interest revenue, before the interest it pays — so its P/S reads lower than it would on the net revenue in its filings.
- EV/EBITDA: not used for a lender — the debt in its enterprise value is mostly the deposits it lends out.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $20.77 (from $15 to $29) — 27% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$20.77
$15 – $29 · +27% against the last close
- 7 buy or overweight
- 8 hold
- 2 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 28.3× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 5 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 17.6×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOFISoFi Technologies, Inc. | $21B | 28.3× | n/a | n/a | 12.1% | 7% |
| AXPAmerican Express Company | $211B | 17.6× | n/a | n/a | 14.3% | 36% |
| COFCapital One Financial Corporation | $125B | 12.0× | n/a | n/a | 13.7% | 10% |
| MAMastercard Incorporated | $534B | 33.5× | 24.7× | 100.0% | 46.3% | 232% |
| PYPLPayPal Holdings, Inc. | $48B | 10.6× | 7.3× | 44.5% | 13.8% | 24% |
| VVisa Inc. | $750B | 21.9× | 26.4× | 117.3% | 51.2% | 65% |
- SOFI, AXP, COF: gross margin is not used (n/a) for a bank, an insurer or a property trust — what it sells is money or space, not goods.
- SOFI, AXP, COF: EV/EBITDA is not used (n/a) for a lender — the debt in its enterprise value is mostly the deposits it lends out.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 28.3× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now28.3×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Financial Services companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 20.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now20.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A cash-flow model is not built for a bank or an insurer — its cash moves with deposits, loans and claims — so none is shown.
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.