Simon Property Group, Inc. SPG
Simon Property Group's operating fundamentals remain strong — 2025 revenue grew 6.7% to $6.36B with an 85.7% gross margin and $3.57B in free cash flow, and Q2 2026 FFO beat estimates with raised full-year guidance and 96% occupancy — but the headline 15.4x P/E is flattered by a 94.8% net income surge to $4.61B that vastly outpaces operating income growth of just 2.7%, indicating non-operating gains distort the multiple. The stock trades at a 13% EV/EBITDA discount to peers (13.1x vs 15.0x median) yet a 29% P/S premium (10.1x vs 7.9x), total debt rose $4.4B to $29.2B in 2025, and technicals are weak with the price below its 50-day MA at $217.11 and bearish MACD momentum.
A cluster buy by 11 insiders on 2026-06-30 and improving smart money conviction (score rising to 0.0623 as of Q2 2026) are incremental positives, but the mixed valuation and stretching balance sheet keep risk/reward balanced.
What could go wrong
- Non-operating income distortion. 2025 net income of $4.61B grew 94.8% while operating income rose only 2.7% to $3.18B, meaning the 15.4x P/E understates the true operating multiple and could reverse if one-time gains don't recur.
- Leverage expansion. Total debt increased $4.4B to $29.2B in 2025 against stockholders' equity of just $5.2B, raising balance-sheet risk if rates rise or property values decline.
- Technical deterioration. As of 2026-08-26, SPG trades at $217.11 below its 50-day MA of $223.18 with a negative MACD histogram of -0.64 and RSI at 40.75, suggesting near-term downside momentum.
- P/S premium compression. At 10.1x P/S versus a peer median of 7.9x, SPG carries a 29% premium that could compress if retail REIT sentiment cools or leasing growth disappoints.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP FY2025 + derived_metrics · FMP FY2024–FY2025 + derived_metrics · peer_relative · FMP FY2024–FY2025. Orin's read on SPG; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All SPG filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $6.2B | 0.3% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $4.6B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $4.6B | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $2.5B | 0.1% of fund |
| Capital World Investors | $2.4B | 0.3% of fund |
| Wellington Management Group Llp | $2.1B | 0.4% of fund |
104 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 166 Form 4 filings, net −$6.8M. Of the 50 on hand, 28 were open-market purchases and 0 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about SPG
Orin answers questions about SPG from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 14.4× | 20.4× | 56.8× |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.1× | 14.7× | — |
| P/S | 9.54× | 9.42× | — |
| P/B | 14.9× | 15.4× | — |
Its P/E sits 20th percentile of its own last 5 years (−1.35σ from its own mean).
6.7%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $3.6B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$224
$207 – $285 · +10% against today's price
- 16 buy or overweight
- 20 hold
- 2 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPGSimon Property Group, Inc. | $66B | 14.4× | 12.1× | 84.6% | 66.4% | 109% |
| FRTFederal Realty Investment Trust | $9B | 21.8× | 13.9× | 54.0% | 32.7% | 13% |
| KIMKimco Realty Corporation | $15B | 25.0× | 14.7× | 54.8% | 27.7% | 6% |
| ORealty Income Corporation | $52B | 40.6× | 12.2× | 68.6% | 22.3% | 3% |
| REGRegency Centers Corporation | $13B | 20.6× | 15.6× | 35.1% | 38.2% | 10% |
The median is of the 4 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 38.3% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $255 | $214.04 · +19% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $184 | $214.04 · −14% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.