Simon Property Group, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Simon Property Group is a deeply oversold, operationally accelerating retail REIT trading at a ~15% EV/EBITDA discount to peers (12.15x vs 14.30x median) as of 1 Oct, with an RSI of 29.17 and the stock at $200.81 — well below its 50-day MA of $215.46.
Revenue growth has accelerated to ~19.5% YoY in Q2 2026, FCF margin stands at 56.0% (FY2025), and 11 insiders executed a cluster buy on 30 Sep at ~$202.78, signaling confidence near these levels. The headline PE of 14.45 is flattered by a non-operating net income surge to $4.61B in FY2025, but the underlying $3.57B free cash flow and leasing momentum cited in September 2026 commentary support the call; total debt rising to $29.19B from $24.78B is the primary overhang.
What could go wrong
- Debt expansion. Total debt rose to $29.19B in FY2025 from $24.78B in FY2024, a material increase that raises interest expense sensitivity if rates remain elevated.
- Quality of earnings. Net margin jumped to 72.5% in FY2025 from 39.8% while operating margin actually declined to 49.9% from 51.9%, indicating the net income surge is non-operating and the PE of 14.45 may overstate underlying earnings power.
- Revenue multiple premium. SPG trades at a 30% PS premium to the peer median (9.54x vs 7.35x), which limits downside protection if growth decelerates.
- Preferred stock redemption overhang. A September 2026 Seeking Alpha article flagged redemption risk for SPG.PR.J preferred shares trading above par with negative yield-to-call, a potential capital allocation distraction.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: technicals, 1 Oct · peer comparison · results, quarter to 30 Jun · FY25 fundamentals. Orin's read on SPG; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 18.1% over twelve months, from $179.78 on 27 Oct 2025 to $212.28 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $236.70 on 28 Jul 2026; the last close is 10.3% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 8.7M, on 26 Jun 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All SPG filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $8.3B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $6.2B | 0.3% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $4.6B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $4.6B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $2.5B | 0.1% |
| Capital World Investors | $2.4B | 0.3% |
| Wellington Management Group | $2.1B | 0.4% |
| Bank of America | $1.8B | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $1.2B | 0.1% |
| FMR | $1.2B | 0.1% |
107 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 177 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net $794K. Of the 50 on hand, 39 were open-market purchases and 0 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about SPG
Orin answers questions about SPG from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 18.4× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close) — higher than in 2 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 20.5×); the typical Real Estate company on the NYSE is at 42.4×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 18.4×below usual | 20.5× | 42.4× |
| P/S | 10.2×above usual | 9.42× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.4×below usual | 14.7× | — |
| P/B | 18.0×above usual | 15.4× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $218 (from $205 to $254) — 3% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$218
$205 – $254 · +3% against the last close
- 4 buy or overweight
- 11 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 18.4× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 4 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 24.3×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPGSimon Property Group, Inc. | $73B | 18.4× | 12.4× | n/a | 56.1% | 86% |
| FRTFederal Realty Investment Trust | $10B | 21.9× | 14.0× | n/a | 32.7% | 13% |
| KIMKimco Realty Corporation | $16B | 26.6× | 15.3× | n/a | 27.7% | 6% |
| ORealty Income Corporation | $54B | 41.5× | 12.5× | n/a | 22.3% | 3% |
| REGRegency Centers Corporation | $14B | 21.6× | 7.2× | n/a | 38.2% | n/m |
- REG: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- SPG, FRT, KIM, O, REG: gross margin is not used (n/a) for a bank, an insurer or a property trust — what it sells is money or space, not goods.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 18.4× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now18.4×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Real Estate companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 42.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now42.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $221 a share — 4% above the $212.28 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $221 | 4% above $212.28 |
| Levered | $152 | 28% below $212.28 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.