S&P Global Inc. SPGI
S&P Global's fundamentals remain compelling — FY2025 revenue grew 8% to $15.34B with diluted EPS up 18.7% to $14.66 and $5.46B in free cash flow — but the stock trades 7.3% below its 200-day MA at $451.78 with a negative MACD histogram of -0.28, signaling unresolved downtrend pressure. At 25.5x trailing earnings, SPGI trades at an ~8% discount to the peer median P/E of 27.7x, yet net insider dispositions of $14.4M over 24 months and a declining smart money score from 0.137 to 0.099 temper conviction.
The expanded Microsoft 365 Copilot collaboration is a genuine AI-monetization catalyst, but the technical and flow signals argue for patience before adding exposure.
What could go wrong
- Debt buildup. Total debt rose from $11.93B in FY2024 to $14.2B in FY2025, a 19% increase that could pressure balance-sheet flexibility if rates remain elevated.
- Technical breakdown. Stock at $418.80 sits below its 200-day MA of $451.78 with negative MACD histogram; a failure to reclaim the 50-day MA at $416.13 could accelerate selling.
- Institutional outflows. Assenagon cut its SPGI stake by 90.6% in Q2 2026, and the smart money score has declined from 0.1366 in Q4 2025 to 0.0985 in Q1 2026.
- Cyclical ratings headwind. A slowdown in debt issuance activity would directly pressure the Ratings division, the highest-margin and most visible revenue driver.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP TTM fundamentals · FMP TTM fundamentals · FMP TTM fundamentals · FMP TTM fundamentals. Orin's read on SPGI; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All SPGI filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $7.9B | 0.2% of fund |
| State Street | $5.9B | 0.2% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $3.0B | 0.2% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $2.8B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.6B | 0.1% of fund |
| Wellington Management Group Llp | $2.2B | 0.4% of fund |
154 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 186 Form 4 filings, net −$14.4M. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 0 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about SPGI
Orin answers questions about SPGI from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 24.7× | 37.6× | 21.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.0× | 24.4× | — |
| P/S | 7.43× | 10.92× | — |
| P/B | 3.8× | 4.7× | — |
Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−2.11σ from its own mean).
9.0%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $5.5B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$512
$505 – $521 · +26% against today's price
- 24 buy or overweight
- 4 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPGIS&P Global Inc. | $120B | 24.7× | 16.0× | 70.9% | 30.5% | 15% |
| BACBank of America Corporation | $397B | 12.7× | 24.1× | 59.3% | 17.2% | 11% |
| BLKBlackRock, Inc. | $164B | 25.0× | 15.8× | 55.7% | 24.1% | 12% |
| COFCapital One Financial Corporation | $120B | 12.1× | 5.0× | 66.2% | 13.4% | 9% |
| IBKRInteractive Brokers Group, Inc. | $158B | 36.2× | 14.2× | 93.3% | 10.1% | 21% |
| MCOMoody's Corporation | $82B | 30.0× | 22.0× | 71.9% | 34.3% | 80% |
The median is of the 5 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 1.1% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $281 | $427.68 · −34% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $249 | $427.68 · −42% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.