S&P Global Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
S&P Global remains a buy as revenue growth accelerated to ~10.4% YoY in both Q1 and Q2 2026, surpassing FY2025's 7.9% pace, while FY2025 operating margin reached 42.2% with $5.46B in free cash flow.
The pullback to $395.18 — below both the 50-day MA of $414.98 and the 200-day MA of $437.11 — has compressed the trailing P/E to 24.05x, a 4.7% discount to the peer median of 25.23x, while the smart money score improved to 0.16 as of the quarter ended 30 Jun from 0.05 as of the quarter ended 31 Mar. Post-Mobility-spin-off focus on high-margin core franchises plus AI-driven product expansion (ChatIQ, Vault Risk Assessment for digital assets) and management's guidance for at least $7B in share repurchases by end-2026 underpin a constructive risk/reward at current levels.
What could go wrong
- Rising leverage. Total debt increased to $14.2B at FY2025 from $11.9B at FY2024, a meaningful step-up that could constrain capital return flexibility if rates remain elevated.
- Persistent insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders net disposed of approximately 20,627 shares worth $11.02M, with only 5 acquisitions versus 9 dispositions — hardly a bullish signal from leadership.
- Technical weakness. Stock trades at $395.18, below both the 50-day MA ($414.98) and 200-day MA ($437.11), with RSI at 41.07 and a negative MACD histogram, indicating continued downward momentum.
- P/S premium to peers. At 7.23x price-to-sales versus a peer median of 6.07x — a 19% premium — any growth disappointment could trigger a sharper de-rating.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q1–Q2 2026 results · FY25 fundamentals · technicals, 7 Oct · peer comparison. Orin's read on SPGI; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 9.6% over twelve months, from $496.64 on 27 Oct 2025 to $448.93 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $546.35 on 16 Jan 2026; the last close is 17.8% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 10.9M, on 10 Feb 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All SPGI filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $9.8B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $7.9B | 0.2% |
| State Street | $5.9B | 0.2% |
| Morgan Stanley | $3.0B | 0.2% |
| Geode Capital Management | $2.8B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.6B | 0.1% |
| Wellington Management Group | $2.2B | 0.4% |
| Eagle Capital Management | $1.7B | 5.1% |
| Norges Bank | $1.6B | 0.2% |
| Northern Trust | $1.2B | 0.1% |
157 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 189 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$11.0M. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 0 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about SPGI
Orin answers questions about SPGI from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 27.3× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — lower than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 37.6×); the typical Financial Services company on the NYSE is at 17.6×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 27.3×below usual | 37.6× | 17.6× |
| P/S | 8.21×below usual | 10.9× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.4×below usual | 24.4× | — |
| P/B | 6.7× | — | — |
- P/B: no usual level — it ran from 2.9× to 55.9× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $507 (from $477 to $531) — 13% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$507
$477 – $531 · +13% against the last close
- 15 buy or overweight
- 0 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 27.3× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 6 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 26.1×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPGIS&P Global Inc. | $132B | 27.3× | 17.4× | 70.9% | 30.5% | 17% |
| CMECME Group Inc. | $106B | 23.9× | 16.1× | 84.3% | 63.1% | 16% |
| FDSFactSet Research Systems Inc. | $11B | 21.2× | 13.5× | 50.6% | 21.5% | 26% |
| ICEIntercontinental Exchange, Inc. | $87B | 21.9× | 15.9× | 79.0% | 32.3% | 14% |
| MCOMoody's Corporation | $82B | 28.8× | 22.8× | 73.1% | 35.3% | 86% |
| MSCIMSCI Inc. | $44B | 32.0× | 23.8× | 82.9% | 40.3% | n/m |
| NDAQNasdaq, Inc. | $58B | 28.2× | 19.9× | 63.2% | 22.8% | 17% |
- MSCI: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- CME: dividend yield marked one-off — most of the last 12 months' payouts were special or irregular, so the yield is not income that repeats.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 27.3× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now27.3×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Financial Services companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 17.6× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now17.6×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $252 a share — 44% below the $448.95 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $252 | 44% below $448.95 |
| Levered | $222 | 50% below $448.95 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.