Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. SPH
Suburban Propane trades at a steep discount to regulated-gas peers (P/E 8.9x vs. 22.3x median, EV/EBITDA 9.0x vs. 14.2x) and FY2025 showed recovery with EPS of $1.62 and net income growth of 43.7%, but the most recent Q3 FY2026 loss widened to -$0.26 per share against a -$0.15 estimate as warmer weather and higher costs pressured propane volumes. Free cash flow improved modestly to $114.3M in FY2025 from $101.2M in FY2024 but remains well below the $196.7M of FY2021, and with $1.33B debt against $599M equity, leverage stays elevated.
The stock sits below both its 50-day ($17.87) and 200-day ($19.09) moving averages, and while the seasonal Q2 FY2026 was strong (EPS $2.06), weather dependence and a deteriorating technical trend keep the risk/reward balanced.
What could go wrong
- Weather dependence. Warmer winters directly reduce heating-driven propane demand; Q3 FY2026 loss widened on weather and cost pressures per recent news coverage.
- Leverage. Total debt of $1.33B against equity of $599M as of FY2025 limits financial flexibility and raises sensitivity to interest rates.
- FCF erosion. Free cash flow has declined from $196.7M in FY2021 to $114.3M in FY2025, a multi-year trend that capex increases ($72.0M in FY2025 vs. $29.9M in FY2021) have exacerbated.
- Institutional outflows. Smart money fund count fell from 15 (as of 2025-09-30) to 12 (as of 2026-06-30), and the smart money score is near zero at 0.0062.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer_relative · fundamentals FY2025; derived_metrics FY2025 · quarterly_results Q3 FY2026; earnings_surprises 2026-08-06 · fundamentals FY2025, FY2024, FY2021. Orin's read on SPH; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All SPH filings| Form | Filed | What it says | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10-Q | 6 Aug | Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. | read |
| 8-K | 6 Aug | Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. | read |
| 8-K | 23 Jul | Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. | read |
| 8-K | 22 Jul | Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. | read |
| 13G/A | 11 May | — | on file |
| 10-Q | 7 May | Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. | read |
| 8-K | 7 May | Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. | read |
| 8-K | 23 Apr | Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. | read |
Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Mirae Asset Global Etfs Holdings | $77.4M | 0.1% of fund |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $27.0M | 0.0% of fund |
| Jpmorgan Chase & | $25.0M | 0.0% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $10.9M | 0.0% of fund |
| Blackstone | $7.2M | 0.0% of fund |
| Citadel Advisors | $2.4M | 0.0% of fund |
17 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 211 Form 4 filings, net −$6.1M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 2 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about SPH
Orin answers questions about SPH from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 8.4× | — | 25.9× |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.8× | — | — |
| P/S | 0.78× | — | — |
| P/B | 1.5× | — | — |
-2.5%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.1B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$21
$17 – $25 · +28% against today's price
- 4 buy or overweight
- 7 hold
- 5 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPHSuburban Propane Partners, L.P. | $1B | 8.4× | 8.8× | 39.4% | 9.4% | 19% |
| HTOH2O America | $3B | 21.7× | 14.0× | 56.5% | 12.9% | 6% |
| MSEXMiddlesex Water Company | $997M | 20.3× | 14.6× | 43.6% | 23.3% | 10% |
| NWNNorthwest Natural Holding Company | $2B | 15.3× | 9.6× | 45.2% | 9.7% | 8% |
The median is of the 3 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 58.7% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.