Spire Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Spire Inc. trades at a 44% discount to the regulated gas peer median on trailing earnings (8.72x vs 15.58x) with three consecutive years of EPS growth through FY2025 ($4.37, up 4.3% YoY) and consistent quarterly earnings beats across FY2026.
However, persistent negative free cash flow (-$344.4M in FY2025 on $922.4M capex), total debt rising to $5.24B, and an EV/EBITDA of 13.63x that exceeds the peer median of 11.39x by 19.6% explain the discount and cap the upside. With the stock at $78.42, below both its 50-day ($80.54) and 200-day ($84.54) moving averages and near a 52-week low of $75.71 as of 9 Oct, technicals confirm near-term weakness that offsets the fundamental value proposition.
What could go wrong
- Leverage and debt service. Total debt rose to $5.24B in FY2025 from $4.76B in FY2024 while FCF remained negative at -$344.4M, raising refinancing and interest expense risk.
- Capex burden. FY2025 capital expenditure of $922.4M consumed all $578M of operating cash flow, and capex has grown each year since FY2023 ($662.5M).
- Revenue erosion. FY2025 revenue declined 4.5% YoY to $2.48B, the second consecutive annual decline, pressuring the regulated rate base growth thesis.
- Technical breakdown. Stock is trading near its 52-week low of $75.71 (reported 1 Oct) and below both key moving averages, with RSI at 47.2 as of 9 Oct.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer comparison, 9 Oct · fundamentals, year to 30 Sep 2025 · fundamentals, to 30 Sep 2025 · technicals, 9 Oct. Orin's read on SR; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 2.9% over twelve months, from $88.61 on 27 Oct 2025 to $86.05 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $95.19 on 9 Apr 2026; the last close is 9.6% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 2.0M, on 26 Jun 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All SR filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $667.6M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $278.7M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $247.9M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $199.9M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $128.8M | 0.0% |
| Northern Trust | $62.0M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $59.7M | 0.0% |
| Nomura Asset Management International | $59.2M | 0.1% |
| Massachusetts Financial Services | $56.1M | 0.0% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $55.1M | 0.0% |
54 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 94 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$234K. Of the 50 on hand, 3 were open-market purchases and 1 a sale — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about SR
Orin answers questions about SR from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 9.6× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — lower than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 15.7×); the typical Utilities company on the NYSE is at 18.5×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 9.6×below usual | 15.7× | 18.5× |
| P/S | 2.01×above usual | 1.46× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.1×above usual | 11.1× | — |
| P/B | 1.4×above usual | 1.2× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $92.57 (from $79 to $103) — 8% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$92.57
$79 – $103 · +8% against the last close
- 3 buy or overweight
- 3 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 9.6× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 7 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 22.2×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SRSpire Inc. | $5B | 9.6× | 14.1× | 32.7% | 21.6% | 16% |
| CPKChesapeake Utilities Corporation | $3B | 22.2× | 9.2× | 36.3% | 15.1% | 9% |
| NINiSource Inc. | $21B | 23.0× | 12.0× | 50.8% | 13.2% | 10% |
| NJRNew Jersey Resources Corporation | $5B | 14.6× | 11.7× | 28.3% | 16.4% | 14% |
| NWENorthwestern Energy Group Inc | $5B | 30.7× | 14.8× | 64.7% | 9.5% | 6% |
| NWNNorthwest Natural Holding Company | $2B | 16.8× | 10.0× | 54.4% | 9.7% | 8% |
| OGSONE Gas, Inc. | $5B | 16.8× | 10.6× | 74.6% | 12.5% | 8% |
| SWXSouthwest Gas Holdings, Inc. | $7B | 25.1× | 12.6× | 65.3% | 15.2% | 6% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 9.6× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now9.6×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Utilities companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 18.5× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now18.5×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
It spends more cash than it brings in, so a cash-flow model gives no usable value (both versions come out below zero).
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.