Orin
SRNYSE·Regulated Gas

Spire Inc. SR

Market cap $4.5BP/E 8.5× trailingGross margin 32.7%
$76.53
−0.26 (−0.34%)live 11:25 ET
52-wk $75.85 – $95.31
Watch
Orin's take
0.62conviction · moderate
Refreshed 21 Aug · take v3. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

Spire Inc. trades at a 47% discount to the regulated gas peer median on trailing earnings (9.3x vs. 17.5x) and a 52% discount on EV/EBITDA (5.7x vs. 11.7x), despite three consecutive years of EPS growth from $3.85 in FY2023 to $4.37 in FY2025 and operating income expanding from $418.6M to $523.9M. Net insider buying of ~55,700 shares ($4.15M) over 24 months, including open-market purchases at $78–$86 in mid-2026, reinforces confidence in the earnings trajectory.

The chief concern is persistent negative free cash flow (-$344.4M in FY2025 on $922.4M capex) alongside rising total debt to $5.24B and a slightly negative smart money score (-0.0063 as of Q2 2026), but the valuation gap is wide enough to absorb near-term balance-sheet pressure.

What could go wrong

  • Persistent negative FCF. Free cash flow was -$344.4M in FY2025 on $922.4M capex and has been negative in four of the last five fiscal years, pressuring the balance sheet.
  • Rising leverage. Total debt increased to $5.24B in FY2025 from $4.74B in FY2023, while revenue declined 4.5% YoY in FY2025.
  • Institutional outflows. Smart money score turned slightly negative at -0.0063 as of Q2 2026, with fund count declining from 48 to 46 over the prior quarter.
  • Q3 earnings miss. Fiscal Q3 2026 adjusted loss of $0.26/share was wider than estimates, with higher operating and interest expenses offsetting utility gains.

What would change my mind

Rate case outcome. Spire secures favorable regulatory rate case approvals that stabilize or grow regulated revenue per customer.bullish
FCF inflection. Capex moderates sufficiently to bring free cash flow toward breakeven or positive territory.bullish
Debt trajectory. Total debt continues rising above $5.5B without commensurate earnings growth or equity issuance.bearish
Revenue trend. Revenue declines accelerate beyond the FY2025 rate of -4.5%, signaling demand erosion or unfavorable regulatory outcomes.bearish

Where this comes from: peer_relative · fundamentals annual · insider summary and transactions · fundamentals FY2025. Orin's read on SR; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$278.7M0.0% of fund
State Street$247.9M0.0% of fund
Vanguard Capital Management$199.9M0.0% of fund
Geode Capital Management$128.8M0.0% of fund
Northern Trust$62.0M0.0% of fund
Morgan Stanley$59.7M0.0% of fund

53 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 94 Form 4 filings, net $4.1M. Of the 50 on hand, 3 were open-market purchases and 1 a sale— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

Ask Orin about SR

its filings · its transcripts · its numbers

Orin answers questions about SR from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.

Start 3 free days →

Where it trades

· Utilities
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E8.5×—25.9×
EV/EBITDA13.5×——
P/S1.79×——
P/B1.3×——

What Wall Street published

15 firms · 2026-09-24
Consensus target

$95

$85 – $103 · +24% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 7 buy or overweight
  • 8 hold
  • 0 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 15.4× of 7 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
SRSpire Inc.$5B8.5×13.5×32.7%21.6%16%
CPKChesapeake Utilities Corporation$3B20.4×13.2×49.9%15.1%9%
NINiSource Inc.$19B20.6×11.3×50.8%13.2%10%
NJRNew Jersey Resources Corporation$5B14.0×11.4×28.3%16.4%14%
NWENorthwestern Energy Group Inc$4B24.4×13.1×66.5%10.1%6%
NWNNorthwest Natural Holding Company$2B15.3×9.6×45.2%9.7%8%
OGSONE Gas, Inc.$5B15.4×10.1×74.6%12.5%8%
SWXSouthwest Gas Holdings, Inc.$6B11.3×10.4×56.6%29.8%13%

The median is of the 7 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 44.7% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY14 19.7×FY25 18.6×

What its sector has traded at

Utilities
FY14 14.0×FY26 27.4×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Every estimate on one scale

price $76.53
52-week range$76 – $95
Analyst targets$85 – $103
At sector P/E (26×)$233

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.