Spire Inc. SR
Spire Inc. trades at a 47% discount to the regulated gas peer median on trailing earnings (9.3x vs. 17.5x) and a 52% discount on EV/EBITDA (5.7x vs. 11.7x), despite three consecutive years of EPS growth from $3.85 in FY2023 to $4.37 in FY2025 and operating income expanding from $418.6M to $523.9M. Net insider buying of ~55,700 shares ($4.15M) over 24 months, including open-market purchases at $78–$86 in mid-2026, reinforces confidence in the earnings trajectory.
The chief concern is persistent negative free cash flow (-$344.4M in FY2025 on $922.4M capex) alongside rising total debt to $5.24B and a slightly negative smart money score (-0.0063 as of Q2 2026), but the valuation gap is wide enough to absorb near-term balance-sheet pressure.
What could go wrong
- Persistent negative FCF. Free cash flow was -$344.4M in FY2025 on $922.4M capex and has been negative in four of the last five fiscal years, pressuring the balance sheet.
- Rising leverage. Total debt increased to $5.24B in FY2025 from $4.74B in FY2023, while revenue declined 4.5% YoY in FY2025.
- Institutional outflows. Smart money score turned slightly negative at -0.0063 as of Q2 2026, with fund count declining from 48 to 46 over the prior quarter.
- Q3 earnings miss. Fiscal Q3 2026 adjusted loss of $0.26/share was wider than estimates, with higher operating and interest expenses offsetting utility gains.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer_relative · fundamentals annual · insider summary and transactions · fundamentals FY2025. Orin's read on SR; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All SR filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $278.7M | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $247.9M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $199.9M | 0.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $128.8M | 0.0% of fund |
| Northern Trust | $62.0M | 0.0% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $59.7M | 0.0% of fund |
53 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 94 Form 4 filings, net $4.1M. Of the 50 on hand, 3 were open-market purchases and 1 a sale— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about SR
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Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 8.5× | — | 25.9× |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.5× | — | — |
| P/S | 1.79× | — | — |
| P/B | 1.3× | — | — |
What Wall Street published
$95
$85 – $103 · +24% against today's price
- 7 buy or overweight
- 8 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SRSpire Inc. | $5B | 8.5× | 13.5× | 32.7% | 21.6% | 16% |
| CPKChesapeake Utilities Corporation | $3B | 20.4× | 13.2× | 49.9% | 15.1% | 9% |
| NINiSource Inc. | $19B | 20.6× | 11.3× | 50.8% | 13.2% | 10% |
| NJRNew Jersey Resources Corporation | $5B | 14.0× | 11.4× | 28.3% | 16.4% | 14% |
| NWENorthwestern Energy Group Inc | $4B | 24.4× | 13.1× | 66.5% | 10.1% | 6% |
| NWNNorthwest Natural Holding Company | $2B | 15.3× | 9.6× | 45.2% | 9.7% | 8% |
| OGSONE Gas, Inc. | $5B | 15.4× | 10.1× | 74.6% | 12.5% | 8% |
| SWXSouthwest Gas Holdings, Inc. | $6B | 11.3× | 10.4× | 56.6% | 29.8% | 13% |
The median is of the 7 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 44.7% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.