Sempra
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Sempra trades at a 22% P/E premium and 42% P/S premium to its diversified-utility peers (23.6x vs 19.3x median; 3.94x vs 2.78x median) as of the latest close of $81.88, yet FY2025 EPS of $2.75 contracted 37.8% year-over-year and free cash flow remained deeply negative at -$6.0B on $10.6B of capex.
The growth narrative — a 20-year Petrobras LNG supply agreement, Texas rate-base expansion, and recent EPS beats in Q1 and Q2 2026 — supports a premium, but with the stock still below both its 50-day ($82.82) and 200-day ($89.82) moving averages and insider net selling of ~$12.8M over 24 months, the risk/reward at current levels is balanced rather than compelling.
What could go wrong
- Capex burden and leverage. FY2025 free cash flow of -$6.0B on $10.6B capex and $36.3B total debt against $31.6B equity; sustained negative FCF pressures the balance sheet if LNG timelines slip.
- Valuation premium vs peers. P/E of 23.6x is 22% above the peer median of 19.3x and P/S of 3.94x is 41.5% above 2.78x, leaving limited room for execution missteps.
- Earnings decline. FY2025 EPS of $2.75 fell 37.8% from $4.42 in FY2024; if FY2026 results don't demonstrate a clear recovery trajectory, the premium could compress.
- Insider selling. Over 24 months insiders net sold ~147,273 shares worth ~$12.8M across 27 dispositions versus only 3 acquisitions, a persistent negative signal.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer comparison, 12 Oct · FY25 fundamentals · news, 14 Sep · technicals, 12 Oct. Orin's read on SRE; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 8.8% over twelve months, from $93.17 on 27 Oct 2025 to $85.01 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $99.75 on 9 Apr 2026; the last close is 14.8% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 13.2M, on 24 Nov 2025).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All SRE filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $5.6B | 0.1% |
| Wellington Management Group | $4.1B | 0.7% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $4.0B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $3.5B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $3.5B | 0.2% |
| Morgan Stanley | $2.3B | 0.1% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $1.9B | 0.1% |
| FMR | $1.8B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.5B | 0.1% |
| Invesco | $1.1B | 0.1% |
109 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 158 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$12.8M. Of the 50 on hand, 3 were open-market purchases and 8 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about SRE
Orin answers questions about SRE from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 15.8× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close) — higher than in 1 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 23.3×); the typical Utilities company on the NYSE is at 18.5×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 15.8×below usual | 23.3× | 18.5× |
| P/S | 3.84×above usual | 3.16× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.9×above usual | 15.4× | — |
| P/B | 1.3×below usual | 1.8× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $95.06 (from $83 to $108) — 12% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$95.06
$83 – $108 · +12% against the last close
- 10 buy or overweight
- 3 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 15.8× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 8 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 20.9×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SRESempra | $52B | 15.8× | 17.9× | 48.8% | 24.2% | 10% |
| ATOAtmos Energy Corporation | $30B | 20.6× | 14.7× | 61.0% | 28.5% | 10% |
| CMSCMS Energy Corporation | $22B | 24.2× | 13.6× | 77.2% | 9.7% | 8% |
| CNPCenterPoint Energy, Inc. | $28B | 24.0× | 12.4× | 53.3% | 11.8% | 10% |
| DUKDuke Energy Corporation | $101B | 19.0× | 11.1× | 60.5% | 15.9% | 10% |
| EIXEdison International | $22B | 6.0× | 8.4× | 39.9% | 19.8% | 22% |
| PEGPublic Service Enterprise Group Incorporated | $36B | 18.0× | 13.5× | 85.4% | 16.0% | 12% |
| SOThe Southern Company | $107B | 21.3× | 12.0× | 49.7% | 16.0% | 13% |
| WECWEC Energy Group, Inc. | $36B | 21.4× | 14.4× | 62.0% | 16.7% | 12% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 15.8× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now15.8×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Utilities companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 18.5× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now18.5×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
Neither version of the cash-flow model gives a usable value.
- Standard: comes out below zero, so it is not shown.
- Levered: comes out below zero, so it is not shown.
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.