Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc. SSD
Simpson Manufacturing remains a hold as the valuation discount to peers is compelling on earnings-based metrics — 20.3x P/E and 12.7x EV/EBITDA versus peer medians of 29.0x and 16.2x respectively — but three years of flat EPS ($8.26 in 2023 vs $8.24 in 2025) and operating margin compression from 21.7% to 19.0% over the same period argue against turning constructive before margin stabilization is evident. The 3.17x P/S, a 94% premium to the peer median of 1.63x, further suggests the market is paying for a revenue base whose profitability has not yet recovered.
Technicals have deteriorated since mid-August with price at $186.58 below the 50-day MA of $194.21 and a bearish MACD histogram of -0.95, while smart money sits near neutral at 0.0157 as of the quarter ended 2026-06-30, reinforcing a wait-and-see stance.
What could go wrong
- Margin compression persists. Operating margin fell from 22.45% in 2022 to 18.97% in 2025; if capex remains elevated at $161M without revenue acceleration, FCF margin could compress further from the current 12.76%.
- P/S premium unwinds. At 3.17x P/S versus a peer median of 1.63x, any disappointment in revenue growth — currently 4.51% YoY — could trigger a de-rating even if earnings hold.
- Technical breakdown. Price at $186.58 is below the 50-day MA of $194.21 with RSI at 42.9 and a negative MACD histogram; a break below the 200-day MA at $183.27 would signal further downside.
- Insider net selling by value. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders net acquired 51,093 shares but net sold $4.6M in value, indicating disposals at higher prices than acquisitions, which is not a strong vote of confidence.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer_relative composite as of 2026-08-25 · peer_relative composite as of 2026-08-25 · peer_relative composite as of 2026-08-25 · FMP annual fundamentals FY2023 and FY2025. Orin's read on SSD; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All SSD filings| Form | Filed | What it says | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13G/A | 13 Aug | — | on file |
| 10-Q | 6 Aug | Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc. | read |
| 13G/A | 6 Aug | — | on file |
| 8-K | 27 Jul | Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc. | read |
| 8-K | 18 May | Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc. | read |
| 10-Q | 7 May | Net sales for the three months ended March 31, 2026, were $587.96 million, an increase of 9.1% compared to $538.90 million for the same period in 2025. | read |
| 13G/A | 6 May | — | on file |
| 13G | 30 Apr | — | on file |
Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Fmr | $768.2M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $402.9M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $388.3M | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $273.9M | 0.0% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $251.5M | 0.0% of fund |
| Quantinno Capital Management | $180.5M | 0.2% of fund |
70 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 67 Form 4 filings, net −$3.6M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 9 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about SSD
Orin answers questions about SSD from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 19.0× | — | 29.8× |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.9× | — | — |
| P/S | 2.97× | — | — |
| P/B | 3.4× | — | — |
10.3%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.3B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$216
$212 – $220 · +23% against today's price
- 4 buy or overweight
- 4 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSDSimpson Manufacturing Co., Inc. | $7B | 19.0× | 11.9× | 45.8% | 15.6% | 18% |
| ESABESAB Corporation | $4B | 24.7× | 14.2× | 35.7% | 5.7% | 8% |
| FBINFortune Brands Innovations, Inc. | $5B | 31.7× | 15.4× | 45.6% | 3.4% | 6% |
| FSSFederal Signal Corporation | $7B | 24.1× | 15.2× | 29.2% | 11.7% | 20% |
| IESCIES Holdings, Inc. | $13B | 28.0× | 21.2× | 25.9% | 11.4% | 44% |
| PRIMPrimoris Services Corporation | $4B | 28.7× | 16.0× | 8.6% | 1.9% | 8% |
The median is of the 5 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 32.0% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.