STAG Industrial, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
STAG Industrial's fundamentals remain constructive — FY2025 revenue grew 10.1% to $845.2M with net income up 44.5% and FCF margin at 47.5% — but the stock at $35.83 trades below both its 50-day ($36.79) and 200-day ($37.93) moving averages, reflecting weak momentum.
Revenue growth is decelerating (Q2 2026 +8.1% YoY versus FY2025 +10.1%), and while EV/EBITDA of 14.53x sits slightly below the peer median of 15.06x, the P/E of 27.56x carries a modest 3.2% premium to peers. With Q3 2026 earnings scheduled for October 27, 2026 as the next catalyst and smart money only marginally positive (score 0.00 as of Q2 2026), the risk/reward is balanced rather than compelling.
What could go wrong
- Gross margin compression. FY2025 gross margin fell to 61.3% from 79.8% in FY2024, a sharp year-over-year contraction worth monitoring for cost or reclassification drivers.
- Revenue growth deceleration. Q2 2026 revenue grew 8.1% YoY, down from FY2025's 10.1% pace, suggesting portfolio rent growth may be cooling.
- Leverage exposure. Total debt of $3.29B against stockholders' equity of $3.60B leaves the balance sheet sensitive to rate movements and refinancing conditions.
- Persistent insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders net disposed of approximately 262K shares valued at roughly $9.9M, with no offsetting open-market acquisitions.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY25 fundamentals · technicals, 16 Oct · Q2 2026 results · peer comparison. Orin's read on STAG; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 6.1% over twelve months, from $38.54 on 27 Oct 2025 to $36.18 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $42.04 on 16 Jul 2026; the last close is 13.9% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 3.5M, on 29 Jul 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All STAG filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $1.1B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $654.0M | 0.0% |
| FMR | $481.7M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $352.9M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $329.3M | 0.0% |
| Norges Bank | $304.7M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $155.4M | 0.0% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $142.6M | 0.0% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $139.8M | 0.0% |
| AllianceBernstein | $132.7M | 0.0% |
73 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 171 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$9.9M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 4 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about STAG
Orin answers questions about STAG from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 25.7× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 1 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 32.5×); the typical Real Estate company on the NYSE is at 42.4×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 25.7×below usual | 32.5× | 42.4× |
| P/S | 7.75×below usual | 8.79× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.0×below usual | 15.5× | — |
| P/B | 1.9×near usual | 1.9× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $41.80 (from $38 to $44) — 16% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$41.80
$38 – $44 · +16% against the last close
- 2 buy or overweight
- 4 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 25.7× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 8 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 27.8×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STAGSTAG Industrial, Inc. | $7B | 25.7× | 11.0× | n/a | 29.9% | 7% |
| CUBECubeSmart | $9B | 27.8× | 18.0× | n/a | 29.4% | 12% |
| EGPEastGroup Properties, Inc. | $11B | 33.4× | 21.6× | n/a | 41.0% | 9% |
| EXRExtra Space Storage Inc. | $31B | 29.4× | 12.8× | n/a | 29.3% | 8% |
| FRFirst Industrial Realty Trust, Inc. | $7B | 20.4× | 14.2× | n/a | 46.1% | 13% |
| IIPRInnovative Industrial Properties, Inc. | $1B | 11.7× | 7.8× | n/a | 52.3% | 7% |
| PLDPrologis, Inc. | $120B | 27.9× | 18.1× | n/a | 45.5% | 8% |
| PSAPublic Storage | $58B | 32.6× | 20.7× | n/a | 37.8% | 18% |
| REXRRexford Industrial Realty, Inc. | $9B | lost money | — | n/a | −47.8% | −6% |
| TRNOTerreno Realty Corporation | $7B | 20.1× | 16.1× | n/a | 68.1% | 8% |
- REXR: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- STAG, CUBE, EGP, EXR, FR, IIPR, PLD, PSA, REXR, TRNO: gross margin is not used (n/a) for a bank, an insurer or a property trust — what it sells is money or space, not goods.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 25.7× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now25.7×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Real Estate companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 42.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now42.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $59 a share — 63% above the $36.08 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $59 | 63% above $36.08 |
| Levered | $27 | 25% below $36.08 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.